Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / MIL · 2026
Black, Tyler
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team MIL
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 26
Status Out / inactive
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.282 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.191 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.269 |
| Observed weight | 15% |
xwOBA
0.199
0.232
0.269
0.305
0.338
wOBA
0.414
0.463
0.518
0.573
0.622
ISO
0.053
0.087
0.126
0.165
0.200
K%
15.8%
19.6%
23.9%
28.1%
31.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · LF
Limited
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF · small sample regression applied
59
Regression applied
Range Runs0.0 · LF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.0 · DH
69
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.6% · rebadged research
23
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.4% · rebadged research
57
Correct Decisions64.9% · rebadged research
37
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.285 · borderline
47
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · insufficient sample
64
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.293 · validated thin sample
14
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.351 · insufficient sample
15
Resists FastballwOBA 0.333 · validated
62
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351 · validated
66
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
28
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No chart yet
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
29 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 222 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.295 | 0.177 to 0.337 | +/- 0.080 |
| ISO | 0.112 | 0.025 to 0.196 | +/- 0.085 |
| Barrel% | 2.1% | 0.2% to 4.8% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 23.4% | 8.2% to 36.4% | +/- 14.1% |
| K% | 23.6% | 12.1% to 30.7% | +/- 9.3% |
| BB% | 11.3% | 5.8% to 15.7% | +/- 4.9% |
| BABIP | 0.299 | 0.150 to 0.324 | +/- 0.087 |
vs LHP
16 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.072 |
| K% | 5.4% |
| BB% | 4.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
89 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.083 |
| K% | 5.2% |
| BB% | 5.8% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |