Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / ATH · 2026
Clarke, Denzel
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team ATH
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
20
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.260 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.209 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.244 |
| Observed weight | 32% |
xwOBA
0.190
0.215
0.244
0.272
0.298
wOBA
0.179
0.204
0.233
0.261
0.286
ISO
0.050
0.074
0.101
0.128
0.152
K%
24.5%
27.3%
30.3%
33.4%
36.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.9%
22
-29 vs proj
Exit velocity85.4
23
Hard-hit%40.0%
58
xBA0.271
11
xSLG0.314
2
xwOBA0.209
2
-26 vs proj
BB%8.7%
54
+37 vs proj
Bat speed71.1
72
K%32.0%
9
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.4 · CF
45
Arm Strength91.4 · CF
30
Outs Above Avg3.0 · CF
92
Range Runs2.7 · CF
74
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts4.0 · CF
37
Sprint Speed28.7 · CF
84
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.9% · rebadged research
79
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.1% · rebadged research
49
Correct Decisions68.7% · rebadged research
76
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.272 · borderline
84
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.268 · insufficient sample
82
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.272 · validated thin sample
75
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.329 · insufficient sample
38
Resists FastballwOBA 0.319 · validated
82
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.324 · validated
95
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
76
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
61 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.073 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.050 |
| Sample | 103 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 280 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 8 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.282 | 0.181 to 0.333 | +/- 0.076 |
| ISO | 0.155 | 0.073 to 0.222 | +/- 0.074 |
| Barrel% | 4.9% | 1.1% to 7.0% | +/- 3.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 38.6% | 25.5% to 46.9% | +/- 10.7% |
| K% | 30.5% | 21.5% to 37.6% | +/- 8.0% |
| BB% | 5.4% | 2.2% to 8.3% | +/- 3.1% |
| BABIP | 0.318 | 0.248 to 0.382 | +/- 0.067 |
vs LHP
34 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.104 |
| K% | 14.1% |
| BB% | 2.1% |
| Barrel | 1.6% |
vs RHP
134 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.099 |
| K% | 15.8% |
| BB% | 1.6% |
| Barrel | 1.5% |