Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window
Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.
Bailey, Patrick
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.310 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.286 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.301 |
| Observed weight | 38% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Swing path and decision map
Patrick Bailey's tools (70) outpace production (68) by 2 points. Primary finding: excessive fly-ball angle — producing popups instead of line drives.
Field-coordinate spray profile
89 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Projection notes
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.019 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.076 |
| Sample | 132 PA |
positive regression
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 482 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.305 | 0.281 to 0.346 | +/- 0.032 |
| ISO | 0.145 | 0.088 to 0.209 | +/- 0.060 |
| Barrel% | 4.7% | 2.8% to 7.1% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 39.7% | 34.2% to 46.0% | +/- 5.9% |
| K% | 23.7% | 21.1% to 31.4% | +/- 5.1% |
| BB% | 7.3% | 4.6% to 10.1% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.293 | 0.256 to 0.344 | +/- 0.044 |
351 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.240 |
| K% | 22.6% |
| BB% | 6.1% |
| Barrel | 3.7% |
956 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.244 |
| K% | 21.2% |
| BB% | 6.2% |
| Barrel | 3.6% |