Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / CLE · 2026

Bailey, Patrick

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.305 xwOBA
Range
0.281 to 0.346
Live Δ
yes
Team CLE Archetype Balanced regular Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.310
xwOBA current pace0.286
xwOBA rolling p500.301
Observed weight38%
xwOBA
0.273 0.286 0.301 0.315 0.329
wOBA
0.182 0.204 0.229 0.253 0.276
ISO
0.076 0.094 0.115 0.135 0.154
K%
21.2% 23.0% 24.9% 26.8% 28.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%7.6%
35
Barrel%3.8%
30 -15 vs proj
Bat speed70.3
60
Exit velocity88.6
51
Hard-hit%36.3%
34
K%22.7%
45
xBA0.301
31
xSLG0.503
47
xwOBA0.286
28 -17 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.3 · C
33
Catcher Throwing1.8 · C
88
Framing Runs3.6 · C
93
Pop Time1.9 · C
96
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed24.6 · C
3
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Limited
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.6% · rebadged research
50
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.1% · rebadged research
39
Correct Decisions66.5% · rebadged research
52
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · borderline
53
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.284 · insufficient sample
31
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.248 · validated thin sample
97
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.308 · insufficient sample
95
Resists FastballwOBA 0.315 · validated
90
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.323 · validated
97
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
45
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Bailey, Patrick · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.2762026-05-19: 0.2832026-05-21: 0.2832026-05-23: 0.2832026-05-24: 0.2832026-05-25: 0.2832026-05-26: 0.2892026-05-28: 0.2842026-05-29: 0.2842026-05-30: 0.2842026-05-31: 0.2862026-06-01: 0.286 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Patrick Bailey's tools (70) outpace production (68) by 2 points. Primary finding: excessive fly-ball angle — producing popups instead of line drives.

See full optimization →

Launch Angle Too High
-26.0° Current 46° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

89 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Bailey, Patrick · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 13% of plotted batted ballsPull 13%Center field third: 75% of plotted batted ballsCenter 75%Right field third: 11% of plotted batted ballsOppo 11% LF 339 CF 399 RF 309 2026-03-15 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 102.4 / LA -3.02026-03-15 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 86.8 / LA -7.02026-03-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.0 / LA 31.02026-03-18 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.1 / LA 3.02026-03-20 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 45.7 / LA -88.02026-03-20 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 81.8 / LA 12.02026-03-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 74.2 / LA 5.02026-03-21 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 71.9 / LA -28.02026-03-21 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 42.7 / LA -38.02026-03-21 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 94.7 / LA 35.02026-03-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.9 / LA 24.02026-03-25 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 93.8 / LA -14.02026-03-27 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 70.6 / LA 42.02026-03-27 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 105.9 / LA -5.02026-03-28 · grounded into double play · FS · ground_ball · EV 81.5 / LA -3.02026-03-28 · field out · SI · popup · EV 83.6 / LA 61.02026-03-28 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.1 / LA -25.02026-03-30 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 66.8 / LA 22.02026-03-30 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 83.0 / LA -23.02026-03-31 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 82.1 / LA 1.02026-03-31 · single · KC · line_drive · EV 78.7 / LA 20.02026-03-31 · field out · KC · line_drive · EV 96.4 / LA 6.02026-04-03 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 72.6 / LA -9.02026-04-03 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 93.8 / LA -12.02026-04-03 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 89.5 / LA 31.02026-04-04 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 98.1 / LA -17.02026-04-04 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 99.6 / LA 10.02026-04-04 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 96.1 / LA -2.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 95.8 / LA 17.02026-04-05 · single · FC · popup · EV 62.2 / LA 35.02026-04-05 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 86.1 / LA 33.02026-04-06 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 88.7 / LA 37.02026-04-06 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 91.3 / LA -15.02026-04-06 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 80.1 / LA 33.02026-04-06 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.8 / LA 0.02026-04-08 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 98.6 / LA 21.02026-04-08 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 92.6 / LA -1.02026-04-08 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 99.5 / LA 3.02026-04-10 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.0 / LA 30.02026-04-10 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 90.0 / LA 1.02026-04-10 · single · KC · ground_ball · EV 105.2 / LA -2.02026-04-10 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 105.2 / LA 25.02026-04-11 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 91.8 / LA -5.02026-04-11 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 98.2 / LA -2.02026-04-11 · field out · CH · popup · EV 66.4 / LA 76.02026-04-14 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 87.6 / LA 38.02026-04-14 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 80.6 / LA -3.02026-04-14 · field out · FC · ground_ball2026-04-16 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 89.1 / LA -28.02026-04-18 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 96.2 / LA 19.02026-04-19 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 103.5 / LA 0.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.9 / LA -30.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 99.0 / LA 18.02026-04-22 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 106.0 / LA 23.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.0 / LA 2.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 83.2 / LA 32.02026-04-23 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 97.2 / LA 29.02026-04-23 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 84.9 / LA 27.02026-04-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.7 / LA 53.02026-04-25 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 106.3 / LA 10.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 99.3 / LA 18.02026-04-26 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 81.9 / LA 11.02026-04-26 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 95.1 / LA 7.02026-04-30 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 101.8 / LA 21.02026-04-30 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.2 / LA -7.02026-05-01 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 83.6 / LA 14.02026-05-01 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 79.1 / LA 49.02026-05-02 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 85.7 / LA -13.02026-05-02 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 78.6 / LA 2.02026-05-06 · field out · KN · ground_ball · EV 82.3 / LA -48.02026-05-10 · field out · SL · popup · EV 65.7 / LA 78.02026-05-10 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 88.5 / LA -10.02026-05-12 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 101.6 / LA 6.02026-05-12 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 67.7 / LA -12.02026-05-15 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 91.4 / LA -11.02026-05-17 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 93.7 / LA 34.02026-05-17 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 92.5 / LA 22.02026-05-17 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 82.7 / LA -2.02026-05-17 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.9 / LA 27.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · popup · EV 89.9 / LA 78.02026-05-20 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 86.0 / LA -18.02026-05-20 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 90.9 / LA 2.02026-05-21 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.3 / LA 55.02026-05-21 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.2 / LA 56.02026-05-21 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.0 / LA 27.02026-05-23 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 81.5 / LA -49.02026-05-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.6 / LA 34.02026-05-25 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 101.2 / LA 10.02026-05-25 · field out · SL · popup · EV 93.4 / LA 58.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics SWING PATH Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Swing Path Bailey, Patrick · aggregate bat-tracking arc Swing tilt 32.4° Length 7.2 ft Ideal path 35% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics ATTACK ANGLE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Attack Angle Bailey, Patrick · aggregate attack vector Attack angle 4.1° Direction -0.6° MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Bailey, Patrick · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 73.0 mph Hard swing rate 32% Whiff / swing 23% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Bailey, Patrick · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 48%48%Chase: 29%29%Whiff: 24%24%Zone contact: 87%87%Contact: 76%76%Hard hit: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.019
wOBA Δ-0.076
Sample132 PA

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances482----
Home Runs10----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3050.281 to 0.346+/- 0.032
ISO0.1450.088 to 0.209+/- 0.060
Barrel%4.7%2.8% to 7.1%+/- 2.1%
Hard-Hit%39.7%34.2% to 46.0%+/- 5.9%
K%23.7%21.1% to 31.4%+/- 5.1%
BB%7.3%4.6% to 10.1%+/- 2.7%
BABIP0.2930.256 to 0.344+/- 0.044
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

351 career PA

xwOBA0.240
K%22.6%
BB%6.1%
Barrel3.7%
vs RHP

956 career PA

xwOBA0.244
K%21.2%
BB%6.2%
Barrel3.6%