Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / CLE · 2026
Arias, Gabriel
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team CLE
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 26
Status IL-60
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.295 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.293 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.295 |
| Observed weight | 19% |
xwOBA
0.251
0.272
0.295
0.318
0.338
wOBA
0.490
0.532
0.577
0.623
0.664
ISO
0.100
0.122
0.147
0.172
0.195
K%
27.2%
29.3%
31.5%
33.7%
35.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.4%
59
+36 vs proj
Barrel%5.7%
59
Bat speed74.7
97
Exit velocity94.2
97
Hard-hit%50.0%
90
+30 vs proj
K%30.2%
13
xBA0.357
79
xSLG0.707
92
xwOBA0.293
34
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg2.0 · SS
81
Range Runs1.6 · SS
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.5 · SS
28
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.1% · rebadged research
77
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.9% · rebadged research
63
Correct Decisions69.5% · rebadged research
81
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.280 · borderline
62
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.299 · insufficient sample
8
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274 · validated thin sample
53
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · insufficient sample
37
Resists FastballwOBA 0.328 · validated
74
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.356 · validated
52
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
78
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
31 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.002 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.287 |
| Sample | 53 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 470 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 13 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.290 | 0.252 to 0.353 | +/- 0.050 |
| ISO | 0.137 | 0.105 to 0.218 | +/- 0.057 |
| Barrel% | 5.7% | 3.6% to 8.4% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.1% | 36.1% to 48.2% | +/- 6.0% |
| K% | 29.5% | 26.4% to 36.2% | +/- 4.9% |
| BB% | 6.4% | 4.6% to 9.0% | +/- 2.2% |
| BABIP | 0.302 | 0.252 to 0.369 | +/- 0.058 |
vs LHP
379 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.218 |
| K% | 27.8% |
| BB% | 5.1% |
| Barrel | 4.3% |
vs RHP
760 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.236 |
| K% | 24.9% |
| BB% | 4.7% |
| Barrel | 5.0% |