Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / AZ · 2026
Moreno, Gabriel
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team AZ
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.331 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.353 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.339 |
| Observed weight | 40% |
xwOBA
0.312
0.325
0.339
0.354
0.366
wOBA
0.325
0.350
0.377
0.404
0.429
ISO
0.140
0.159
0.180
0.201
0.220
K%
15.6%
17.4%
19.3%
21.3%
23.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.7%
62
Barrel%9.0%
88
+28 vs proj
Bat speed69.5
47
Exit velocity89.3
59
Hard-hit%43.9%
67
K%20.1%
61
xBA0.346
70
xSLG0.596
74
xwOBA0.353
81
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.7 · C
83
Catcher Throwing0.2 · C
43
Framing Runs1.7 · C
74
Pop Time1.9 · C
90
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.3 · C
32
Sprint Speed26.5 · C
28
SB Success Rate66.7% · C
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.5% · rebadged research
31
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.5% · rebadged research
36
Correct Decisions60.3% · rebadged research
10
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.299 · borderline
22
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.267 · insufficient sample
83
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.267 · validated thin sample
75
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample
74
Resists FastballwOBA 0.344 · validated
43
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.370 · validated
22
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
26
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
91 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.020 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.044 |
| Sample | 144 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 400 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.333 | 0.308 to 0.368 | +/- 0.030 |
| ISO | 0.155 | 0.111 to 0.231 | +/- 0.060 |
| Barrel% | 5.7% | 3.4% to 8.0% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.1% | 39.3% to 49.2% | +/- 4.9% |
| K% | 19.3% | 15.6% to 26.7% | +/- 5.5% |
| BB% | 9.4% | 7.4% to 12.1% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.299 | 0.279 to 0.343 | +/- 0.032 |
vs LHP
363 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.268 |
| K% | 13.4% |
| BB% | 7.6% |
| Barrel | 4.0% |
vs RHP
871 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.264 |
| K% | 14.4% |
| BB% | 8.0% |
| Barrel | 4.2% |