Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / MIA · 2026
Lopez, Otto
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIA
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
59
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.330 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.324 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.326 |
| Observed weight | 73% |
xwOBA
0.306
0.315
0.326
0.337
0.346
wOBA
0.342
0.354
0.367
0.381
0.393
ISO
0.126
0.136
0.146
0.156
0.165
K%
11.6%
12.4%
13.3%
14.1%
14.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.2%
55
Exit velocity88.5
58
Hard-hit%41.2%
63
+17 vs proj
xBA0.329
62
xSLG0.492
46
xwOBA0.324
72
BB%5.0%
14
-18 vs proj
Bat speed69.4
45
K%13.0%
94
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.7 · SS
93
Arm Strength89.9 · SS
72
Outs Above Avg11.0 · SS
97
Range Runs8.4 · SS
94
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs4.7 · SS
96
Bolts3.0 · SS
35
SB Success Rate86.7% · SS
71
Sprint Speed28.5 · SS
80
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.5% · rebadged research
41
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 32.1% · rebadged research
8
Correct Decisions62.8% · rebadged research
19
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline93
15
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.337 · borderline
4
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.263 · insufficient sample
89
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.281 · validated thin sample
43
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.319 · insufficient sample
76
Resists FastballwOBA 0.379 · validated
6
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.401 · validated
3
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
300 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.011 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.054 |
| Sample | 600 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 552 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 12 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.314 | 0.301 to 0.368 | +/- 0.034 |
| ISO | 0.141 | 0.094 to 0.199 | +/- 0.053 |
| Barrel% | 4.6% | 3.2% to 7.2% | +/- 2.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.5% | 34.1% to 45.3% | +/- 5.6% |
| K% | 14.7% | 12.5% to 20.4% | +/- 4.0% |
| BB% | 6.9% | 5.0% to 10.4% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.284 | 0.271 to 0.328 | +/- 0.029 |
vs LHP
345 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.243 |
| K% | 12.9% |
| BB% | 5.1% |
| Barrel | 3.6% |
vs RHP
757 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.266 |
| K% | 11.7% |
| BB% | 6.0% |
| Barrel | 4.1% |