Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / DET · 2026
Pérez, Wenceel
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team DET
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.309 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.262 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.289 |
| Observed weight | 43% |
xwOBA
0.264
0.276
0.289
0.302
0.314
wOBA
0.230
0.251
0.274
0.298
0.319
ISO
0.130
0.146
0.164
0.182
0.198
K%
15.9%
17.3%
18.8%
20.4%
21.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%7.3%
33
Barrel%6.1%
64
+28 vs proj
Bat speed69.0
40
Exit velocity87.7
39
Hard-hit%34.9%
29
K%15.9%
84
+26 vs proj
xBA0.237
3
xSLG0.396
15
xwOBA0.262
13
-29 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.8 · RF
23
Arm Strength85.8 · RF
5
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
45
Range Runs-2.9 · RF
12
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.9 · RF
74
Sprint Speed28.2 · RF
75
SB Success Rate75.0% · RF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.2% · rebadged research
48
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.4% · rebadged research
47
Correct Decisions66.0% · rebadged research
48
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.260 · borderline
93
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.267 · insufficient sample
83
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.272 · validated thin sample
65
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.320 · insufficient sample
83
Resists FastballwOBA 0.292 · validated
99
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.352 · validated
62
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
46
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
116 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.041 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.028 |
| Sample | 164 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 454 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 12 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.303 | 0.289 to 0.346 | +/- 0.029 |
| ISO | 0.145 | 0.131 to 0.236 | +/- 0.052 |
| Barrel% | 4.0% | 2.7% to 6.2% | +/- 1.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.6% | 32.1% to 42.9% | +/- 5.4% |
| K% | 20.8% | 17.3% to 26.1% | +/- 4.4% |
| BB% | 7.3% | 4.8% to 10.4% | +/- 2.8% |
| BABIP | 0.290 | 0.243 to 0.332 | +/- 0.045 |
vs LHP
224 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.242 |
| K% | 17.0% |
| BB% | 6.1% |
| Barrel | 4.3% |
vs RHP
644 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.227 |
| K% | 17.3% |
| BB% | 5.9% |
| Barrel | 3.3% |