Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / HOU · 2026
Diaz, Yainer
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team HOU
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 28
Status IL-10
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.339 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.257 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.310 |
| Observed weight | 35% |
xwOBA
0.280
0.294
0.310
0.326
0.341
wOBA
0.250
0.276
0.305
0.333
0.359
ISO
0.096
0.115
0.137
0.159
0.178
K%
14.6%
16.1%
17.8%
19.4%
21.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%3.4%
5
Barrel%3.4%
27
-35 vs proj
Bat speed70.5
66
Exit velocity87.8
41
Hard-hit%29.8%
14
-56 vs proj
K%15.4%
86
xBA0.282
16
xSLG0.384
12
xwOBA0.257
11
-60 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.2 · C
38
Catcher Throwing-0.4 · C
24
Framing Runs-3.3 · C
9
Pop Time2.0 · C
16
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.5 · C
11
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 54.6% · rebadged research
11
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.4% · rebadged research
88
Correct Decisions63.7% · rebadged research
27
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.269 · borderline
84
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · insufficient sample
43
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.280 · validated thin sample
39
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample
73
Resists FastballwOBA 0.340 · validated
50
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.349 · validated
69
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
23
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
94 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.076 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.029 |
| Sample | 117 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 556 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 19 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.333 | 0.304 to 0.378 | +/- 0.037 |
| ISO | 0.154 | 0.106 to 0.226 | +/- 0.060 |
| Barrel% | 5.9% | 4.9% to 8.7% | +/- 1.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 44.6% | 40.7% to 52.1% | +/- 5.7% |
| K% | 18.2% | 14.0% to 22.6% | +/- 4.3% |
| BB% | 4.1% | 2.8% to 7.5% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.304 | 0.278 to 0.352 | +/- 0.037 |
vs LHP
423 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.293 |
| K% | 15.9% |
| BB% | 4.4% |
| Barrel | 6.4% |
vs RHP
1225 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.285 |
| K% | 14.4% |
| BB% | 2.9% |
| Barrel | 5.8% |