Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / BAL · 2026
Robert Jr., Luis
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team BAL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
66
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.303 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.321 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.313 |
| Observed weight | 53% |
xwOBA
0.283
0.297
0.313
0.328
0.342
wOBA
0.311
0.329
0.350
0.370
0.389
ISO
0.142
0.157
0.174
0.191
0.206
K%
23.0%
24.4%
25.9%
27.5%
28.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.0%
68
Exit velocity89.5
72
Hard-hit%39.1%
53
xBA0.327
60
xSLG0.572
73
xwOBA0.321
70
+16 vs proj
BB%10.1%
69
+37 vs proj
Bat speed75.0
98
K%24.6%
40
+16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.9 · CF
75
Arm Strength91.7 · CF
33
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · CF
24
Range Runs-0.2 · CF
42
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts5.0 · CF
48
Sprint Speed28.9 · CF
88
SB Success Rate25.0% · CF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.3% · rebadged research
50
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.4% · rebadged research
88
Correct Decisions67.7% · rebadged research
67
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.284 · borderline
63
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.269 · insufficient sample
79
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.281 · validated thin sample
44
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample
60
Resists FastballwOBA 0.348 · validated
32
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.339 · validated
85
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
72
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
124 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.014 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.043 |
| Sample | 248 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 472 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 18 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.307 | 0.281 to 0.371 | +/- 0.045 |
| ISO | 0.175 | 0.133 to 0.248 | +/- 0.057 |
| Barrel% | 6.1% | 4.4% to 8.8% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 41.7% | 36.7% to 48.6% | +/- 5.9% |
| K% | 27.7% | 23.3% to 33.2% | +/- 4.9% |
| BB% | 7.0% | 4.9% to 9.8% | +/- 2.5% |
| BABIP | 0.303 | 0.260 to 0.349 | +/- 0.045 |
vs LHP
590 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.271 |
| K% | 21.9% |
| BB% | 8.0% |
| Barrel | 5.8% |
vs RHP
1949 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.256 |
| K% | 24.5% |
| BB% | 5.3% |
| Barrel | 6.1% |