Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
2
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / CHC · 2026
Suzuki, Seiya
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team CHC
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 32
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.339 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.315 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.328 |
| Observed weight | 47% |
xwOBA
0.297
0.311
0.328
0.344
0.359
wOBA
0.299
0.319
0.342
0.365
0.386
ISO
0.143
0.162
0.182
0.203
0.222
K%
22.1%
23.6%
25.2%
26.9%
28.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%10.2%
68
Barrel%5.1%
51
-33 vs proj
Bat speed70.4
62
Exit velocity88.9
54
Hard-hit%41.8%
59
-27 vs proj
K%26.0%
30
xBA0.339
65
xSLG0.568
66
xwOBA0.315
56
-22 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.0 · RF
85
Arm Strength92.9 · RF
58
Outs Above Avg2.0 · RF
90
Range Runs1.4 · RF
70
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.7 · RF
61
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.1% · rebadged research
68
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.0% · rebadged research
13
Correct Decisions64.2% · rebadged research
32
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.286 · borderline
44
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · insufficient sample
75
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.267 · validated thin sample
76
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.334 · insufficient sample
43
Resists FastballwOBA 0.346 · validated
38
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.378 · validated
12
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
44
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
111 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.031 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.004 |
| Sample | 196 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 605 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 27 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.346 | 0.292 to 0.383 | +/- 0.045 |
| ISO | 0.212 | 0.147 to 0.284 | +/- 0.069 |
| Barrel% | 8.4% | 5.6% to 10.4% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 48.5% | 42.1% to 55.0% | +/- 6.4% |
| K% | 25.4% | 20.1% to 29.8% | +/- 4.8% |
| BB% | 10.4% | 8.2% to 13.1% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.314 | 0.269 to 0.365 | +/- 0.048 |
vs LHP
635 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.317 |
| K% | 18.4% |
| BB% | 11.1% |
| Barrel | 6.8% |
vs RHP
1713 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.288 |
| K% | 22.6% |
| BB% | 8.1% |
| Barrel | 7.2% |