Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / TOR · 2026
Clement, Ernie
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team TOR
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 30
Status Out / inactive
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
13
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.293 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.274 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.281 |
| Observed weight | 64% |
xwOBA
0.258
0.269
0.281
0.293
0.303
wOBA
0.308
0.323
0.339
0.356
0.370
ISO
0.113
0.125
0.138
0.152
0.164
K%
8.1%
9.0%
10.1%
11.1%
12.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.1%
13
Exit velocity84.9
16
Hard-hit%22.6%
5
xBA0.285
17
xSLG0.382
8
xwOBA0.274
19
-21 vs proj
BB%3.4%
5
Bat speed65.1
7
K%9.9%
98
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength80.8 · 2B
10
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · 2B
7
Range Runs-4.5 · 2B
12
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.8 · 2B
23
Bolts1.0 · 2B
15
Sprint Speed27.8 · 2B
61
SB Success Rate100.0% · 2B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 54.4% · rebadged research
9
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0% · rebadged research
53
Correct Decisions61.8% · rebadged research
15
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline91
12
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.300 · borderline
26
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.259 · insufficient sample
95
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.289 · validated thin sample
26
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.314 · insufficient sample
90
Resists FastballwOBA 0.387 · validated
4
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.361 · validated
43
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
235 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.022 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.043 |
| Sample | 384 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 588 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 13 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.296 | 0.267 to 0.340 | +/- 0.036 |
| ISO | 0.119 | 0.097 to 0.211 | +/- 0.057 |
| Barrel% | 1.8% | 1.2% to 4.3% | +/- 1.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 25.8% | 22.1% to 34.4% | +/- 6.1% |
| K% | 8.8% | 7.2% to 15.8% | +/- 4.3% |
| BB% | 3.9% | 1.7% to 7.0% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.285 | 0.260 to 0.349 | +/- 0.044 |
vs LHP
534 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.250 |
| K% | 8.2% |
| BB% | 2.9% |
| Barrel | 2.5% |
vs RHP
1024 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.237 |
| K% | 8.4% |
| BB% | 2.8% |
| Barrel | 1.9% |