Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 2 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / TOR · 2026

Clement, Ernie

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.296 xwOBA
Range
0.267 to 0.340
Live Δ
yes
Team TOR Archetype Ground-ball contact Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-02
xwOBA preseason0.293
xwOBA current pace0.281
xwOBA rolling p500.286
Observed weight53%
xwOBA
0.260 0.273 0.286 0.300 0.312
wOBA
0.305 0.323 0.344 0.364 0.382
ISO
0.114 0.128 0.145 0.161 0.176
K%
7.3% 8.4% 9.6% 10.9% 12.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-02
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%3.3%
5
Barrel%2.4%
18
Bat speed65.3
8
Exit velocity85.4
17
Hard-hit%25.6%
7
K%8.9%
100
xBA0.286
19
xSLG0.391
14
xwOBA0.281
23
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength80.8 · 2B
14
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · 2B
4
Range Runs-3.6 · 2B
7
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.2 · 2B
36
Sprint Speed27.7 · 2B
61
SB Success Rate100.0% · 2B
Limited
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-02
Avoids Bad ChasesST 54.0% · rebadged research
9
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.4% · rebadged research
37
Correct Decisions61.7% · rebadged research
14
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline91
11
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.306 · borderline
14
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.260 · insufficient sample
92
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.286 · validated thin sample
26
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.317 · insufficient sample
88
Resists FastballwOBA 0.376 · validated
7
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360 · validated
42
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Clement, Ernie · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-19: 0.2862026-05-21: 0.2922026-05-23: 0.2862026-05-24: 0.2852026-05-25: 0.2832026-05-26: 0.2812026-05-28: 0.2822026-05-29: 0.2822026-05-30: 0.2802026-05-31: 0.2782026-06-01: 0.2812026-06-02: 0.281 2026-05-19 2026-06-02 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Ernie Clement's tools (40) outpace production (58) by -18 points. Primary finding: expanding the zone too aggressively — generating weak contact and whiffs on pitcher's pitches. Also flagged: Launch Angle Too Low. Most actionable fix: elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range.

See full optimization →

Launch Angle Too Low
+21.5° Current -6° → Target 16°

Elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.
Chase Rate Problem
Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment

Protected takes / Chase risk
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

205 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Clement, Ernie · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 20% of plotted batted ballsPull 20%Center field third: 71% of plotted batted ballsCenter 71%Right field third: 9% of plotted batted ballsOppo 9% LF 328 CF 400 RF 328 2026-03-19 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 80.6 / LA 40.02026-03-21 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 86.5 / LA 19.02026-03-21 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 91.3 / LA 23.02026-03-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.8 / LA 44.02026-03-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 88.5 / LA -17.02026-03-22 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.3 / LA 3.02026-03-22 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.3 / LA -4.02026-03-27 · double · FC · ground_ball · EV 81.7 / LA -37.02026-03-27 · force out · CU · ground_ball · EV 72.0 / LA -32.02026-03-27 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 99.6 / LA 19.02026-03-27 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 84.7 / LA -28.02026-03-28 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 102.7 / LA 13.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 83.9 / LA 34.02026-03-28 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 86.9 / LA 1.02026-03-28 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 50.5 / LA -24.02026-03-28 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 92.4 / LA -5.02026-03-28 · single · SL · fly_ball · EV 68.9 / LA 28.02026-03-29 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 92.4 / LA 22.02026-03-29 · field out · SL · popup · EV 76.9 / LA 60.02026-03-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.8 / LA 42.02026-03-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.7 / LA 23.02026-03-30 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 100.1 / LA 14.02026-03-30 · field out · FS · line_drive · EV 94.5 / LA 15.02026-03-31 · double · SL · fly_ball · EV 93.5 / LA 32.02026-03-31 · field out · SI · popup · EV 72.3 / LA 71.02026-03-31 · double play · FF · line_drive · EV 74.5 / LA 6.02026-03-31 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 64.0 / LA -9.02026-04-01 · single · KC · ground_ball · EV 97.0 / LA -2.02026-04-01 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 97.7 / LA -14.02026-04-01 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 99.8 / LA 11.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 83.2 / LA 40.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 86.3 / LA 20.02026-04-03 · field out · SI · popup · EV 67.7 / LA 49.02026-04-03 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 90.5 / LA -5.02026-04-03 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 109.7 / LA -11.02026-04-04 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 94.1 / LA -20.02026-04-04 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 89.3 / LA 58.02026-04-04 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 73.7 / LA -57.02026-04-04 · field out · FC · popup · EV 81.3 / LA 77.02026-04-05 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 97.0 / LA 15.02026-04-05 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 98.7 / LA 12.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · popup · EV 66.2 / LA 66.02026-04-06 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 66.3 / LA 30.02026-04-06 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.9 / LA 31.02026-04-06 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 73.7 / LA -41.02026-04-06 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 88.6 / LA -15.02026-04-07 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 72.7 / LA 45.02026-04-07 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 66.0 / LA -42.02026-04-07 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 29.5 / LA -43.02026-04-08 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 86.1 / LA -22.02026-04-08 · force out · ST · ground_ball · EV 64.1 / LA 6.02026-04-08 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 89.9 / LA 47.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · popup · EV 83.1 / LA 62.02026-04-10 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 97.2 / LA 24.02026-04-10 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.2 / LA -23.02026-04-10 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 100.4 / LA 9.02026-04-10 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 88.1 / LA 13.02026-04-11 · grounded into double play · KC · ground_ball · EV 88.3 / LA -8.02026-04-11 · field out · FF · popup · EV 74.1 / LA 54.02026-04-11 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 89.2 / LA 18.02026-04-11 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 88.3 / LA -20.02026-04-12 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 86.4 / LA 25.02026-04-12 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 78.9 / LA -8.02026-04-12 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 94.8 / LA 10.02026-04-12 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 105.8 / LA -26.02026-04-12 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 105.6 / LA 11.02026-04-14 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 95.9 / LA 36.02026-04-14 · field out · FF · popup · EV 87.5 / LA 74.02026-04-14 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 92.6 / LA -16.02026-04-14 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 82.7 / LA 14.02026-04-15 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 89.7 / LA 48.02026-04-15 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 80.7 / LA 53.02026-04-15 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 97.7 / LA 20.02026-04-16 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 102.0 / LA 12.02026-04-16 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 100.2 / LA 22.02026-04-16 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 94.2 / LA 0.02026-04-17 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.5 / LA 48.02026-04-17 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 88.1 / LA 4.02026-04-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.9 / LA 41.02026-04-18 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 99.6 / LA 3.02026-04-18 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 100.1 / LA 22.02026-04-18 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 79.1 / LA 12.02026-04-19 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 67.4 / LA -14.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · popup · EV 80.9 / LA 65.02026-04-19 · field out · ST · popup · EV 73.3 / LA 62.02026-04-19 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 91.9 / LA 17.02026-04-19 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 90.9 / LA 25.02026-04-20 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 93.5 / LA 41.02026-04-20 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 87.5 / LA -4.02026-04-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.4 / LA 46.02026-04-20 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 92.3 / LA 41.02026-04-20 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 100.0 / LA 3.02026-04-21 · double · KC · line_drive · EV 89.6 / LA 17.02026-04-21 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 102.9 / LA 11.02026-04-21 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 86.9 / LA -47.02026-04-22 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 82.6 / LA 12.02026-04-22 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 84.7 / LA 21.02026-04-22 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 67.4 / LA -27.02026-04-22 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 90.2 / LA 5.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 81.0 / LA -33.02026-04-24 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 90.2 / LA 7.02026-04-24 · double · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.4 / LA 4.02026-04-24 · field out · CU · popup · EV 65.5 / LA 67.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 85.0 / LA 46.02026-04-25 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 95.4 / LA 13.02026-04-25 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 89.4 / LA -3.02026-04-25 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.1 / LA -13.02026-04-26 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 98.6 / LA 20.02026-04-26 · field out · FC · popup · EV 64.2 / LA 63.02026-04-26 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 71.9 / LA 0.02026-04-27 · field out · FF · popup · EV 72.7 / LA 73.02026-04-27 · field out · CU · popup · EV 65.4 / LA 84.02026-04-27 · field out · FC · popup · EV 82.1 / LA 61.02026-04-27 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 78.6 / LA 45.02026-04-28 · field out · CU · popup · EV 72.6 / LA 70.02026-04-28 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 99.4 / LA 16.02026-04-29 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 91.9 / LA -7.02026-04-29 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 84.4 / LA -3.02026-04-29 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 74.4 / LA 48.02026-04-29 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.3 / LA 23.02026-04-29 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 83.6 / LA 53.02026-04-30 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 88.1 / LA 8.02026-04-30 · single · CH · fly_ball · EV 73.8 / LA 27.02026-04-30 · field out · CH · popup · EV 63.9 / LA 67.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.7 / LA 42.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · ground_ball2026-05-02 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.5 / LA 3.02026-05-02 · field out · CU · popup · EV 77.5 / LA 74.02026-05-03 · force out · FC · ground_ball · EV 92.7 / LA -5.02026-05-03 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 98.0 / LA 21.02026-05-03 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 70.9 / LA 6.02026-05-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 88.8 / LA -19.02026-05-04 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 91.0 / LA 9.02026-05-04 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.3 / LA -7.02026-05-04 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 81.7 / LA -1.02026-05-05 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 38.0 / LA -37.02026-05-05 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 42.2 / LA -60.02026-05-05 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 99.6 / LA 25.02026-05-05 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 89.0 / LA 50.02026-05-06 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 70.6 / LA 3.02026-05-06 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 94.4 / LA -8.02026-05-06 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 80.2 / LA 41.02026-05-06 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 57.0 / LA 35.02026-05-08 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 98.3 / LA 27.02026-05-08 · sac fly · CH · fly_ball · EV 84.9 / LA 44.02026-05-08 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 81.4 / LA -39.02026-05-09 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 95.4 / LA 27.02026-05-09 · single · CH · fly_ball · EV 67.1 / LA 26.02026-05-09 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 95.7 / LA -1.02026-05-09 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 91.4 / LA -1.02026-05-09 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 94.8 / LA 2.02026-05-10 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 98.5 / LA 23.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 93.7 / LA 16.02026-05-10 · field out · KC · fly_ball · EV 71.0 / LA 37.02026-05-10 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 67.1 / LA 33.02026-05-11 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 88.0 / LA 32.02026-05-11 · field out · SI · popup · EV 92.5 / LA 62.02026-05-11 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 103.3 / LA 20.02026-05-12 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 3.02026-05-12 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 90.2 / LA 23.02026-05-12 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 91.9 / LA 16.02026-05-13 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 101.8 / LA 13.02026-05-13 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.0 / LA 50.02026-05-13 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 98.7 / LA 34.02026-05-15 · grounded into double play · CU · ground_ball · EV 97.9 / LA 2.02026-05-15 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 71.7 / LA -21.02026-05-16 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 76.0 / LA 42.02026-05-17 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 88.6 / LA -15.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 83.5 / LA -12.02026-05-17 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 70.2 / LA -7.02026-05-18 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 84.2 / LA 20.02026-05-18 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 99.4 / LA 28.02026-05-18 · force out · FC · ground_ball · EV 71.8 / LA -2.02026-05-19 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 60.5 / LA 23.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 76.9 / LA -41.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 88.9 / LA 34.02026-05-20 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 57.9 / LA -76.02026-05-21 · double · FC · fly_ball · EV 97.8 / LA 29.02026-05-21 · double · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.8 / LA 0.02026-05-21 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 84.5 / LA -22.02026-05-21 · double · SI · ground_ball · EV 86.4 / LA -29.02026-05-22 · field error · FF · ground_ball · EV 88.7 / LA -38.02026-05-22 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.3 / LA 29.02026-05-23 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 65.9 / LA -49.02026-05-23 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 75.0 / LA 12.02026-05-23 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.1 / LA 0.02026-05-24 · field out · FF · popup · EV 76.7 / LA 74.02026-05-24 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 80.7 / LA 25.02026-05-24 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 83.5 / LA 6.02026-05-24 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 55.9 / LA -4.02026-05-25 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.9 / LA 37.02026-05-25 · field out · SL · popup · EV 81.3 / LA 67.02026-05-25 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 86.9 / LA 21.02026-05-25 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 86.6 / LA -25.02026-05-26 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 98.1 / LA 28.02026-05-26 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 80.2 / LA 32.02026-05-26 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 88.4 / LA -1.02026-05-26 · field out · ST · popup · EV 83.7 / LA 61.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 85.4 / LA 38.02026-05-27 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 100.0 / LA 30.02026-05-27 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 95.2 / LA -13.02026-05-31 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 89.3 / LA 36.02026-05-31 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 86.6 / LA 18.02026-05-31 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 93.0 / LA -49.02026-05-31 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 82.7 / LA -22.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics SWING PATH Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Swing Path Clement, Ernie · aggregate bat-tracking arc Swing tilt 29.9° Length 7.2 ft Ideal path 65% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics ATTACK ANGLE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Attack Angle Clement, Ernie · aggregate attack vector Attack angle 12.9° Direction -7.7° MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Clement, Ernie · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 66.8 mph Hard swing rate 3% Whiff / swing 12% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Clement, Ernie · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 49%49%Chase: 45%45%Whiff: 14%14%Zone contact: 93%93%Contact: 86%86%Hard hit: 26%26% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.015
wOBA Δ+0.048
Sample246 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances588----
Home Runs13----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.2960.267 to 0.340+/- 0.036
ISO0.1190.097 to 0.211+/- 0.057
Barrel%1.8%1.2% to 4.3%+/- 1.6%
Hard-Hit%25.8%22.1% to 34.4%+/- 6.1%
K%8.8%7.2% to 15.8%+/- 4.3%
BB%3.9%1.7% to 7.0%+/- 2.6%
BABIP0.2850.260 to 0.349+/- 0.044
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

534 career PA

xwOBA0.250
K%8.2%
BB%2.9%
Barrel2.5%
vs RHP

1024 career PA

xwOBA0.237
K%8.4%
BB%2.8%
Barrel1.9%