Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment
Protected takes / Chase risk
Burleson, Alec
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.341 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.376 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.360 |
| Observed weight | 54% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Swing path and decision map
Alec Burleson's tools (94) outpace production (81) by 12 points. Primary finding: expanding the zone too aggressively — generating weak contact and whiffs on pitcher's pitches. Also flagged: Contact-Discipline Mismatch.
Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs
Protected takes / Chase riskField-coordinate spray profile
186 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Projection notes
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.038 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.043 |
| Sample | 260 PA |
negative regression
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 546 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 18 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.338 | 0.318 to 0.376 | +/- 0.029 |
| ISO | 0.161 | 0.108 to 0.230 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% | 5.7% | 4.2% to 7.9% | +/- 1.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.5% | 39.0% to 49.7% | +/- 5.3% |
| K% | 14.7% | 11.3% to 18.9% | +/- 3.8% |
| BB% | 7.0% | 5.0% to 9.7% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.284 | 0.269 to 0.334 | +/- 0.032 |
330 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.250 |
| K% | 12.8% |
| BB% | 4.6% |
| Barrel | 3.9% |
1319 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.295 |
| K% | 10.9% |
| BB% | 5.9% |
| Barrel | 5.5% |