Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / STL · 2026

Burleson, Alec

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.338 xwOBA
Range
0.318 to 0.376
Live Δ
yes
Team STL Archetype Balanced regular Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.341
xwOBA current pace0.376
xwOBA rolling p500.360
Observed weight54%
xwOBA
0.335 0.347 0.360 0.373 0.384
wOBA
0.342 0.361 0.381 0.401 0.419
ISO
0.123 0.138 0.154 0.171 0.186
K%
12.5% 13.6% 14.8% 16.1% 17.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.2%
56 +27 vs proj
Barrel%7.3%
77 +17 vs proj
Bat speed70.6
66
Exit velocity91.1
85
Hard-hit%47.4%
83 +21 vs proj
K%15.8%
84
xBA0.347
72
xSLG0.634
81
xwOBA0.376
91 +17 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 1B
27
Range Runs0.1 · 1B
43
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.7 · 1B
68
Sprint Speed25.6 · 1B
13
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Limited
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.2% · rebadged research
39
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.6% · rebadged research
26
Correct Decisions64.6% · rebadged research
35
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
29
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.291 · borderline
35
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.300 · insufficient sample
7
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.314 · validated thin sample
3
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.328 · insufficient sample
62
Resists FastballwOBA 0.349 · validated
34
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.362 · validated
35
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Burleson, Alec · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.3792026-05-19: 0.3792026-05-21: 0.3882026-05-23: 0.3912026-05-24: 0.3912026-05-25: 0.3912026-05-26: 0.3862026-05-28: 0.3822026-05-29: 0.3822026-05-30: 0.3822026-05-31: 0.3752026-06-01: 0.376 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Alec Burleson's tools (94) outpace production (81) by 12 points. Primary finding: expanding the zone too aggressively — generating weak contact and whiffs on pitcher's pitches. Also flagged: Contact-Discipline Mismatch.

See full optimization →

Chase Rate Problem
Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment

Protected takes / Chase risk
Contact-Discipline Mismatch
Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

186 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Burleson, Alec · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 19% of plotted batted ballsPull 19%Center field third: 63% of plotted batted ballsCenter 63%Right field third: 18% of plotted batted ballsOppo 18% LF 336 CF 400 RF 335 2026-03-15 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 98.0 / LA -8.02026-03-15 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 101.3 / LA 8.02026-03-17 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 82.4 / LA 23.02026-03-19 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 107.7 / LA 13.02026-03-19 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 103.1 / LA 8.02026-03-21 · double · CU · line_drive · EV 108.7 / LA 18.02026-03-21 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 89.7 / LA 22.02026-03-21 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.4 / LA 37.02026-03-21 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 84.9 / LA 1.02026-03-22 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 88.5 / LA 22.02026-03-22 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 96.2 / LA 22.02026-03-22 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 95.1 / LA 51.02026-03-26 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 77.4 / LA 38.02026-03-26 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.3 / LA 0.02026-03-26 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 109.0 / LA 32.02026-03-26 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 97.8 / LA 11.02026-03-28 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 103.0 / LA 13.02026-03-28 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 95.8 / LA -4.02026-03-28 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 92.1 / LA 25.02026-03-28 · sac fly · CH · fly_ball · EV 89.8 / LA 23.02026-03-29 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.1 / LA 2.02026-03-29 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 64.4 / LA -39.02026-03-29 · field out · SI · popup · EV 97.2 / LA 66.02026-03-29 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 71.3 / LA -9.02026-03-30 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 104.0 / LA 9.02026-03-30 · double · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.5 / LA 6.02026-03-30 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 82.6 / LA 35.02026-03-31 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 101.8 / LA 5.02026-03-31 · field out · FO · popup · EV 65.7 / LA 65.02026-04-01 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 79.3 / LA -22.02026-04-01 · field out · CS · ground_ball · EV 93.7 / LA -9.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 111.0 / LA 20.02026-04-01 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.0 / LA 3.02026-04-03 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 91.7 / LA -10.02026-04-03 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 107.2 / LA 5.02026-04-03 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 82.1 / LA 0.02026-04-04 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 96.7 / LA -10.02026-04-04 · double · KC · fly_ball · EV 101.5 / LA 23.02026-04-04 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 85.4 / LA -15.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.5 / LA 32.02026-04-05 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 91.8 / LA 2.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.7 / LA 43.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.7 / LA 55.02026-04-06 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 87.9 / LA -16.02026-04-06 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 71.1 / LA -16.02026-04-06 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 106.4 / LA 28.02026-04-07 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 97.4 / LA 10.02026-04-07 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 79.4 / LA -32.02026-04-07 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 87.6 / LA 44.02026-04-08 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 78.1 / LA 34.02026-04-08 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 40.9 / LA -46.02026-04-08 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.3 / LA -15.02026-04-08 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 88.1 / LA 13.02026-04-10 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 107.1 / LA 33.02026-04-10 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 85.7 / LA -31.02026-04-10 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.6 / LA -1.02026-04-10 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.6 / LA 49.02026-04-11 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.7 / LA -25.02026-04-12 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 91.5 / LA -5.02026-04-12 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 80.5 / LA 25.02026-04-12 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 111.6 / LA 25.02026-04-12 · field out · SI · popup · EV 88.7 / LA 67.02026-04-13 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 96.2 / LA 7.02026-04-13 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 64.8 / LA -51.02026-04-13 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.4 / LA 36.02026-04-13 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 85.8 / LA 48.02026-04-13 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 104.7 / LA 14.02026-04-14 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 105.3 / LA -11.02026-04-14 · field out · FF · popup · EV 98.1 / LA 63.02026-04-14 · double play · SL · line_drive · EV 94.4 / LA 17.02026-04-15 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 94.2 / LA -16.02026-04-15 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 85.7 / LA -16.02026-04-15 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.4 / LA 2.02026-04-17 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 97.0 / LA 18.02026-04-17 · double · SL · fly_ball · EV 103.9 / LA 24.02026-04-17 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 73.6 / LA -14.02026-04-18 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 101.1 / LA 45.02026-04-18 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 99.2 / LA 24.02026-04-18 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 80.1 / LA -11.02026-04-18 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.6 / LA 33.02026-04-18 · double · CH · fly_ball · EV 94.3 / LA 32.02026-04-19 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 82.6 / LA -16.02026-04-19 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 107.3 / LA 16.02026-04-19 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 93.1 / LA 32.02026-04-20 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 68.9 / LA -42.02026-04-20 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 63.0 / LA -42.02026-04-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 84.9 / LA 48.02026-04-21 · double · CH · ground_ball · EV 109.3 / LA 4.02026-04-21 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 99.2 / LA 11.02026-04-21 · fielders choice · CH · ground_ball · EV 67.0 / LA -51.02026-04-24 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 80.7 / LA -20.02026-04-24 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 83.2 / LA -22.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 98.5 / LA 19.02026-04-25 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 99.5 / LA 9.02026-04-25 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 88.1 / LA 28.02026-04-25 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 88.0 / LA -9.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.0 / LA 43.02026-04-26 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 82.2 / LA -5.02026-04-26 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 75.5 / LA -14.02026-04-26 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 84.3 / LA -28.02026-04-27 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 57.5 / LA -68.02026-04-27 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 55.7 / LA -15.02026-04-27 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.4 / LA -5.02026-04-27 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 90.1 / LA -22.02026-04-28 · double · CU · fly_ball · EV 101.9 / LA 29.02026-04-28 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 109.6 / LA 21.02026-04-29 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 80.4 / LA -14.02026-04-29 · force out · CU · ground_ball · EV 92.3 / LA -22.02026-04-29 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 108.4 / LA 25.02026-04-29 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 96.4 / LA -20.02026-04-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.8 / LA 50.02026-04-30 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 109.6 / LA 1.02026-04-30 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 74.0 / LA 21.02026-04-30 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 82.7 / LA 21.02026-05-01 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 106.5 / LA 24.02026-05-01 · field out · CH · popup · EV 73.2 / LA 66.02026-05-02 · double · FF · ground_ball · EV 108.0 / LA 4.02026-05-02 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 100.7 / LA 33.02026-05-03 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 78.9 / LA 23.02026-05-03 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 50.6 / LA -79.02026-05-03 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 100.1 / LA 9.02026-05-03 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 86.6 / LA -30.02026-05-04 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 82.3 / LA -7.02026-05-04 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 86.6 / LA -32.02026-05-06 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 103.1 / LA 20.02026-05-06 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 77.7 / LA -15.02026-05-06 · single · KC · ground_ball · EV 105.5 / LA -1.02026-05-07 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 111.2 / LA 22.02026-05-07 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.1 / LA 63.02026-05-07 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.0 / LA -4.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.9 / LA 41.02026-05-08 · double · CH · ground_ball · EV 84.4 / LA 10.02026-05-08 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 98.9 / LA 5.02026-05-09 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 69.6 / LA 7.02026-05-09 · field out · FC · popup · EV 85.3 / LA 67.02026-05-09 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 70.2 / LA -42.02026-05-10 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.4 / LA 4.02026-05-10 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 101.5 / LA 10.02026-05-10 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 90.9 / LA 35.02026-05-10 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 90.4 / LA 36.02026-05-12 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 93.6 / LA 16.02026-05-12 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 95.3 / LA 13.02026-05-12 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 102.2 / LA -1.02026-05-12 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 35.3 / LA -58.02026-05-13 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 103.4 / LA 11.02026-05-13 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 101.8 / LA 22.02026-05-13 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 82.9 / LA 7.02026-05-13 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 88.1 / LA 34.02026-05-14 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 97.1 / LA 37.02026-05-15 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 87.0 / LA 14.02026-05-15 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 104.9 / LA 1.02026-05-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.5 / LA 33.02026-05-16 · sac fly · SL · line_drive · EV 96.7 / LA 22.02026-05-16 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 104.0 / LA 44.02026-05-16 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 106.3 / LA 12.02026-05-17 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 63.6 / LA 28.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.1 / LA 33.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 107.0 / LA -1.02026-05-17 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 93.4 / LA 49.02026-05-19 · field out · FF · ground_ball2026-05-19 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 106.9 / LA 12.02026-05-19 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.5 / LA 28.02026-05-20 · grounded into double play · FS · ground_ball · EV 67.4 / LA 2.02026-05-20 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 84.6 / LA 18.02026-05-21 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 94.7 / LA 15.02026-05-21 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 95.4 / LA 4.02026-05-23 · field out · CH · popup · EV 93.4 / LA 66.02026-05-23 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 80.8 / LA 52.02026-05-23 · double · CH · ground_ball · EV 101.9 / LA 9.02026-05-23 · field out · FC · popup · EV 67.6 / LA 51.02026-05-23 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 96.0 / LA 28.02026-05-23 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.2 / LA 5.02026-05-23 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 96.4 / LA 10.02026-05-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 81.6 / LA 41.02026-05-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.6 / LA 27.02026-05-25 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 98.3 / LA -21.02026-05-25 · field out · SL · popup · EV 81.1 / LA 74.02026-05-26 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 82.5 / LA -29.02026-05-26 · single · SV · line_drive · EV 86.0 / LA 19.02026-05-26 · field out · SV · line_drive · EV 94.5 / LA 9.02026-05-27 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 85.0 / LA 1.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.0 / LA 32.02026-05-27 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 96.6 / LA 29.02026-05-31 · single · SI · fly_ball · EV 77.0 / LA 56.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · popup · EV 81.8 / LA 78.02026-05-31 · field out · SI · popup · EV 37.6 / LA 32.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics SWING PATH Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Swing Path Burleson, Alec · aggregate bat-tracking arc Swing tilt 35.2° Length 7.4 ft Ideal path 53% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics ATTACK ANGLE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Attack Angle Burleson, Alec · aggregate attack vector Attack angle 12.1° Direction +4.3° MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Burleson, Alec · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 71.9 mph Hard swing rate 16% Whiff / swing 17% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Burleson, Alec · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 47%47%Chase: 34%34%Whiff: 20%20%Zone contact: 82%82%Contact: 80%80%Hard hit: 47%47% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.295 vs 0.250 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.038
wOBA Δ+0.043
Sample260 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances546----
Home Runs18----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3380.318 to 0.376+/- 0.029
ISO0.1610.108 to 0.230+/- 0.061
Barrel%5.7%4.2% to 7.9%+/- 1.9%
Hard-Hit%42.5%39.0% to 49.7%+/- 5.3%
K%14.7%11.3% to 18.9%+/- 3.8%
BB%7.0%5.0% to 9.7%+/- 2.4%
BABIP0.2840.269 to 0.334+/- 0.032
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

330 career PA

xwOBA0.250
K%12.8%
BB%4.6%
Barrel3.9%
vs RHP

1319 career PA

xwOBA0.295
K%10.9%
BB%5.9%
Barrel5.5%