Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / NYM · 2026
Young, Jared
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team NYM
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.264 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.401 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.289 |
| Observed weight | 19% |
xwOBA
0.223
0.254
0.289
0.324
0.356
wOBA
0.302
0.344
0.390
0.436
0.477
ISO
0.076
0.111
0.149
0.187
0.222
K%
16.4%
20.9%
26.0%
31.0%
35.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.8%
63
+18 vs proj
Barrel%13.7%
100
+53 vs proj
Bat speed72.2
81
Exit velocity88.4
48
Hard-hit%47.1%
81
+44 vs proj
K%23.5%
40
+24 vs proj
xBA0.390
94
xSLG0.635
82
xwOBA0.401
98
+62 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.9 · 1B
Limited
Outs Above Avg0.4 · 1B · small sample regression applied
65
Regression applied
Range Runs-0.2 · 1B
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.6 · 1B
58
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.0% · rebadged research
72
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.1% · rebadged research
82
Correct Decisions69.5% · rebadged research
81
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · borderline
55
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.268 · insufficient sample
81
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.269 · validated thin sample
72
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.335 · insufficient sample
41
Resists FastballwOBA 0.365 · validated
13
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.363 · validated
33
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
84
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
31 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.107 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.096 |
| Sample | 51 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 224 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.294 | 0.159 to 0.318 | +/- 0.079 |
| ISO | 0.167 | 0.070 to 0.247 | +/- 0.088 |
| Barrel% | 4.9% | 1.2% to 6.9% | +/- 2.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.8% | 19.5% to 42.2% | +/- 11.4% |
| K% | 29.3% | 14.7% to 38.0% | +/- 11.7% |
| BB% | 8.7% | 2.4% to 12.4% | +/- 5.0% |
| BABIP | 0.278 | 0.152 to 0.330 | +/- 0.089 |
vs LHP
19 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.061 |
| K% | 7.6% |
| BB% | 1.9% |
| Barrel | 1.2% |
vs RHP
133 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.067 |
| K% | 7.7% |
| BB% | 2.2% |
| Barrel | 1.8% |