Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / WSH · 2026

Tena, José

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.315 xwOBA
Range
0.255 to 0.355
Live Δ
yes
Team WSH Archetype Ground-ball contact Age 25 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
67
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
62
Defense1 metrics
28
Speed4 metrics
39
Plate skills10 metrics
48
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-01
xwOBA preseason0.316
xwOBA current pace0.299
xwOBA rolling p500.306
Observed weight57%
xwOBA
0.277 0.291 0.306 0.322 0.336
wOBA
0.285 0.301 0.320 0.339 0.355
ISO
0.110 0.125 0.143 0.160 0.175
K%
24.3% 25.7% 27.4% 29.1% 30.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.9%
51
Exit velocity90.6
85
Hard-hit%45.7%
82
xBA0.342
76
xSLG0.547
65
xwOBA0.299
45 -18 vs proj
BB%9.1%
57 +23 vs proj
Bat speed71.9
79
K%29.4%
19 -44 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 2B
28
Arm Runs0.3 · 2B
Small sample
Range Runs-2.2 · 2B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.2 · DH
47
Bolts2.0 · DH
29
SB Success Rate66.7% · DH
20
Sprint Speed27.8 · DH
60
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-09-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.8% · rebadged research
37
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.3% · rebadged research
39
Correct Decisions64.3% · rebadged research
31
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.268 · borderline
89
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.269 · insufficient sample
74
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.247 · validated thin sample
97
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.352 · insufficient sample
12
Resists FastballwOBA 0.333 · validated
58
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.378 · validated
12
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
32
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Tena, José · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.303 0.299 2026-08-21: 0.3042026-08-22: 0.3042026-08-23: 0.3042026-08-24: 0.3042026-08-25: 0.3052026-08-26: 0.3052026-08-27: 0.3012026-08-28: 0.3012026-08-29: 0.3012026-08-30: 0.3002026-08-31: 0.3012026-09-01: 0.299 2026-08-21 2026-09-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

José Tena's tools (88) and production (89) are aligned. Primary finding: elite raw contact quality undermined by swing decisions — the bat is dangerous when it connects.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Contact-Discipline Mismatch
Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

121 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Tena, José · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 18% of plotted batted ballsPull 18%Center field third: 71% of plotted batted ballsCenter 71%Right field third: 11% of plotted batted ballsOppo 11% LF 337 CF 402 RF 335 2026-03-16 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 105.9 / LA 8.02026-03-16 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 84.5 / LA 11.02026-03-16 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 93.4 / LA 24.02026-03-17 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.7 / LA -1.02026-03-17 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.2 / LA -16.02026-03-19 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 70.0 / LA -42.02026-03-20 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 80.1 / LA -20.02026-03-20 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 68.7 / LA -24.02026-03-21 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 101.8 / LA 16.02026-03-21 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 84.0 / LA -19.02026-03-22 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 86.0 / LA 2.02026-03-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.3 / LA 53.02026-03-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.4 / LA 37.02026-03-28 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 83.4 / LA 2.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 84.8 / LA -27.02026-03-30 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 81.7 / LA 7.02026-03-30 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 87.2 / LA -13.02026-03-30 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 75.9 / LA 13.02026-03-30 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 91.3 / LA 15.02026-03-31 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 78.0 / LA 37.02026-04-04 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 88.1 / LA 13.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.9 / LA 51.02026-04-05 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 73.6 / LA 14.02026-04-06 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 96.7 / LA 34.02026-04-06 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.7 / LA 39.02026-04-06 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.3 / LA 48.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 80.6 / LA 43.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 71.7 / LA -16.02026-04-12 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 91.7 / LA -5.02026-04-13 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 60.4 / LA -9.02026-04-13 · field out · CH · popup · EV 67.0 / LA 62.02026-04-13 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 101.7 / LA -10.02026-04-14 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 93.4 / LA 14.02026-04-17 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 98.9 / LA 17.02026-04-17 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 100.1 / LA -12.02026-04-17 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 112.5 / LA 10.02026-04-18 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 66.7 / LA 10.02026-04-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.8 / LA -14.02026-04-20 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 101.7 / LA 17.02026-04-20 · field out · FF · popup · EV 79.0 / LA 74.02026-04-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.8 / LA 27.02026-04-21 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 98.9 / LA 17.02026-04-23 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.7 / LA -13.02026-04-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 107.1 / LA -8.02026-04-26 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 108.2 / LA 24.02026-04-29 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 102.8 / LA 15.02026-04-30 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.2 / LA -11.02026-05-01 · grounded into double play · CU · ground_ball · EV 97.7 / LA -6.02026-05-02 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 102.7 / LA 20.02026-05-03 · triple · FC · fly_ball · EV 100.2 / LA 23.02026-05-05 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 76.2 / LA 24.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · popup · EV 91.5 / LA 81.02026-05-05 · double · FS · line_drive · EV 105.6 / LA 20.02026-05-06 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 87.1 / LA 40.02026-05-06 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 89.4 / LA 58.02026-05-06 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 103.2 / LA 16.02026-05-06 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 99.0 / LA -3.02026-05-06 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.5 / LA 34.02026-05-07 · grounded into double play · FS · ground_ball · EV 105.5 / LA 1.02026-05-07 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 102.9 / LA -5.02026-05-09 · fielders choice out · FF · ground_ball · EV 105.4 / LA 4.02026-05-09 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 110.8 / LA 17.02026-05-12 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 105.8 / LA -4.02026-05-12 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 64.4 / LA -31.02026-05-12 · double · CU · line_drive · EV 106.1 / LA 19.02026-05-12 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 111.6 / LA 16.02026-05-16 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 78.7 / LA -22.02026-05-16 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 114.0 / LA 3.02026-05-17 · field out · FS · line_drive · EV 107.5 / LA 15.02026-05-17 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 72.9 / LA -4.02026-05-18 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 108.0 / LA 12.02026-05-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 78.0 / LA 34.02026-05-18 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 64.5 / LA -37.02026-05-19 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 104.7 / LA 17.02026-05-19 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 98.8 / LA 27.02026-05-19 · fielders choice · FC · ground_ball · EV 98.5 / LA 5.02026-05-22 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 76.3 / LA -40.02026-05-23 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 86.5 / LA -10.02026-05-27 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 71.4 / LA -28.02026-05-27 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 94.8 / LA -7.02026-05-27 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 95.4 / LA -2.02026-05-31 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 104.2 / LA -17.02026-05-31 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 104.6 / LA 8.02026-06-01 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 73.5 / LA -12.02026-06-01 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 61.9 / LA -35.02026-06-05 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 108.0 / LA 13.02026-06-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 64.6 / LA -3.02026-06-07 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 62.8 / LA -5.02026-06-07 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 112.0 / LA 16.02026-06-24 · triple · SI · line_drive · EV 81.5 / LA 26.02026-06-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.7 / LA 46.02026-06-24 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 108.3 / LA -1.02026-06-26 · field out · CH · popup · EV 70.7 / LA 64.02026-06-30 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 95.7 / LA 10.02026-07-27 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 63.8 / LA -57.02026-07-31 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 80.0 / LA 33.02026-07-31 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 96.9 / LA -4.02026-07-31 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 80.9 / LA 26.02026-07-31 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 95.8 / LA -14.02026-08-02 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 65.3 / LA -76.02026-08-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.9 / LA -25.02026-08-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 60.9 / LA -55.02026-08-07 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 100.1 / LA 4.02026-08-07 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 105.6 / LA -25.02026-08-08 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 99.3 / LA 12.02026-08-11 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 66.4 / LA -42.02026-08-19 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 77.8 / LA 25.02026-08-19 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.2 / LA -4.02026-08-19 · home run · FS · fly_ball · EV 105.3 / LA 24.02026-08-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 108.9 / LA -11.02026-08-22 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 69.6 / LA -12.02026-08-23 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 102.2 / LA 23.02026-08-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.6 / LA 66.02026-08-26 · double · CU · fly_ball · EV 91.3 / LA 42.02026-08-26 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 80.4 / LA 33.02026-08-29 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 55.7 / LA -57.02026-08-29 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 56.7 / LA -76.02026-08-29 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 91.1 / LA 28.02026-08-29 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 81.5 / LA 53.02026-08-31 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 63.1 / LA -23.02026-08-31 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 81.4 / LA 49.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Tena, José · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 48%48%Chase: 30%30%Whiff: 30%30%Zone contact: 80%80%Contact: 70%70%Hard hit: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.016
wOBA Δ+0.005
Sample286 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances314----
Home Runs5----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3150.255 to 0.355+/- 0.050
ISO0.1410.075 to 0.208+/- 0.067
Barrel%5.0%2.4% to 7.3%+/- 2.5%
Hard-Hit%42.1%32.3% to 53.2%+/- 10.5%
K%20.6%18.3% to 29.8%+/- 5.7%
BB%7.3%4.0% to 10.2%+/- 3.1%
BABIP0.3090.245 to 0.354+/- 0.055
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

84 career PA

xwOBA0.171
K%14.9%
BB%3.9%
Barrel2.6%
vs RHP

339 career PA

xwOBA0.189
K%14.5%
BB%4.8%
Barrel2.9%