Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / SEA · 2026
Rodríguez, Julio
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team SEA
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.347 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.338 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.342 |
| Observed weight | 56% |
xwOBA
0.314
0.327
0.342
0.357
0.370
wOBA
0.330
0.348
0.367
0.387
0.404
ISO
0.164
0.180
0.197
0.215
0.230
K%
19.0%
20.3%
21.7%
23.2%
24.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%6.9%
28
Barrel%6.5%
69
Bat speed75.0
98
Exit velocity90.2
74
Hard-hit%42.6%
62
-26 vs proj
K%20.9%
57
xBA0.339
65
xSLG0.601
75
xwOBA0.338
74
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.4 · CF
70
Arm Strength97.8 · CF
89
Outs Above Avg-4.0 · CF
1
Range Runs-3.7 · CF
4
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.3 · CF
32
Bolts9.0 · CF
72
SB Success Rate71.4% · CF
29
Sprint Speed28.7 · CF
88
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.1% · rebadged research
17
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.9% · rebadged research
78
Correct Decisions63.7% · rebadged research
26
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
32
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.294 · borderline
28
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · insufficient sample
71
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.304 · validated thin sample
6
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.306 · insufficient sample
96
Resists FastballwOBA 0.357 · validated
20
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351 · validated
65
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
189 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.014 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.015 |
| Sample | 277 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 655 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 27 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.352 | 0.312 to 0.400 | +/- 0.044 |
| ISO | 0.169 | 0.135 to 0.263 | +/- 0.064 |
| Barrel% | 6.7% | 4.9% to 9.6% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 49.1% | 45.2% to 56.7% | +/- 5.7% |
| K% | 22.8% | 19.1% to 28.9% | +/- 4.9% |
| BB% | 7.1% | 4.9% to 10.2% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.319 | 0.278 to 0.372 | +/- 0.047 |
vs LHP
692 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.302 |
| K% | 21.4% |
| BB% | 6.8% |
| Barrel | 6.8% |
vs RHP
2116 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.307 |
| K% | 20.4% |
| BB% | 6.0% |
| Barrel | 6.3% |