Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / TEX · 2026
Duran, Ezequiel
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team TEX
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.283 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.310 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.296 |
| Observed weight | 47% |
xwOBA
0.266
0.280
0.296
0.312
0.326
wOBA
0.343
0.364
0.388
0.411
0.432
ISO
0.130
0.147
0.167
0.186
0.204
K%
19.3%
21.1%
23.1%
25.2%
27.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%7.2%
32
+18 vs proj
Barrel%5.7%
59
+23 vs proj
Bat speed69.8
52
Exit velocity89.3
58
Hard-hit%41.2%
55
+16 vs proj
K%23.7%
39
xBA0.348
73
xSLG0.520
53
xwOBA0.310
51
+29 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.3 · 2B
93
Arm Strength97.7 · 2B
100
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 2B
71
Range Runs2.1 · 2B
77
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.6 · 2B
91
Bolts5.0 · 2B
56
SB Success Rate83.3% · 2B
60
Sprint Speed28.7 · 2B
88
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.5% · rebadged research
27
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.4% · rebadged research
28
Correct Decisions62.5% · rebadged research
16
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.358 · borderline
0
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.256 · insufficient sample
96
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.295 · validated thin sample
12
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.297 · insufficient sample
99
Resists FastballwOBA 0.306 · validated
95
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.392 · validated
5
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
17
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
124 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.033 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.110 |
| Sample | 194 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 350 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.277 | 0.241 to 0.324 | +/- 0.042 |
| ISO | 0.128 | 0.082 to 0.206 | +/- 0.062 |
| Barrel% | 4.1% | 1.6% to 6.5% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.3% | 32.6% to 45.6% | +/- 6.5% |
| K% | 24.2% | 19.6% to 32.4% | +/- 6.4% |
| BB% | 5.3% | 3.4% to 8.2% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.314 | 0.253 to 0.373 | +/- 0.060 |
vs LHP
395 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.207 |
| K% | 19.5% |
| BB% | 3.9% |
| Barrel | 2.9% |
vs RHP
856 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.210 |
| K% | 17.8% |
| BB% | 3.6% |
| Barrel | 2.7% |