Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / TEX · 2026
Duran, Ezequiel
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team TEX
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
52
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.283 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.301 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.295 |
| Observed weight | 70% |
xwOBA
0.273
0.284
0.295
0.307
0.317
wOBA
0.332
0.345
0.359
0.374
0.387
ISO
0.149
0.160
0.173
0.186
0.197
K%
21.0%
22.2%
23.6%
25.0%
26.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.7%
48
Exit velocity87.8
49
Hard-hit%38.1%
48
xBA0.331
65
xSLG0.510
53
xwOBA0.301
46
+23 vs proj
BB%7.3%
34
+18 vs proj
Bat speed69.6
48
K%24.0%
43
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.3 · SS
13
Arm Strength97.7 · SS
98
Outs Above Avg0.0 · SS
47
Range Runs12.4 · SS
98
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.8 · SS
60
Bolts12.0 · SS
68
SB Success Rate75.0% · SS
33
Sprint Speed28.9 · SS
88
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.2% · rebadged research
29
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.4% · rebadged research
37
Correct Decisions63.6% · rebadged research
26
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
26
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.360 · borderline
0
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · insufficient sample
85
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.302 · validated thin sample
9
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.292 · insufficient sample
98
Resists FastballwOBA 0.354 · validated
22
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.386 · validated
8
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
211 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.023 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.082 |
| Sample | 508 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 350 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.277 | 0.241 to 0.324 | +/- 0.042 |
| ISO | 0.128 | 0.082 to 0.206 | +/- 0.062 |
| Barrel% | 4.1% | 1.6% to 6.5% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.3% | 32.6% to 45.6% | +/- 6.5% |
| K% | 24.2% | 19.6% to 32.4% | +/- 6.4% |
| BB% | 5.3% | 3.4% to 8.2% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.314 | 0.253 to 0.373 | +/- 0.060 |
vs LHP
395 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.207 |
| K% | 19.5% |
| BB% | 3.9% |
| Barrel | 2.9% |
vs RHP
856 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.210 |
| K% | 17.8% |
| BB% | 3.6% |
| Barrel | 2.7% |