Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / BOS · 2026

Abreu, Wilyer

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.329 xwOBA
Range
0.298 to 0.354
Live Δ
yes
Team BOS Archetype Balanced regular Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.324
xwOBA current pace0.351
xwOBA rolling p500.339
Observed weight54%
xwOBA
0.314 0.326 0.339 0.351 0.363
wOBA
0.322 0.340 0.360 0.380 0.398
ISO
0.147 0.162 0.179 0.195 0.210
K%
18.3% 19.8% 21.5% 23.2% 24.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.2%
55
Barrel%8.4%
85
Bat speed72.3
83
Exit velocity89.0
54
Hard-hit%41.6%
58 -17 vs proj
K%19.2%
67 +35 vs proj
xBA0.348
73
xSLG0.597
74
xwOBA0.351
81
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.1 · RF
87
Arm Strength99.9 · RF
95
Outs Above Avg3.0 · RF
94
Range Runs2.6 · RF
82
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.0 · RF
40
Bolts1.0 · RF
17
SB Success Rate80.0% · RF
49
Sprint Speed28.1 · RF
72
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.0% · rebadged research
42
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.6% · rebadged research
45
Correct Decisions64.8% · rebadged research
37
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
41
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.314 · borderline
10
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.308 · insufficient sample
4
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.265 · validated thin sample
80
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.349 · insufficient sample
15
Resists FastballwOBA 0.332 · validated
66
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.364 · validated
31
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Abreu, Wilyer · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.3642026-05-19: 0.3612026-05-21: 0.3542026-05-23: 0.3572026-05-24: 0.3502026-05-25: 0.3472026-05-26: 0.3472026-05-28: 0.3442026-05-29: 0.3442026-05-30: 0.3462026-05-31: 0.3422026-06-01: 0.351 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

177 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Abreu, Wilyer · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 19% of plotted batted ballsPull 19%Center field third: 65% of plotted batted ballsCenter 65%Right field third: 16% of plotted batted ballsOppo 16% LF 310 CF 390 RF 302 2026-03-21 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 87.6 / LA -39.02026-03-21 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 74.2 / LA -57.02026-03-21 · field out · FF · popup · EV 76.9 / LA 69.02026-03-22 · single · CU · fly_ball · EV 86.6 / LA 31.02026-03-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 72.9 / LA 3.02026-03-23 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.8 / LA 28.02026-03-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.2 / LA 28.02026-03-24 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 100.2 / LA 49.02026-03-24 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.4 / LA -9.02026-03-26 · field out · FC · ground_ball2026-03-26 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 80.5 / LA 4.02026-03-26 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 32.9 / LA 33.02026-03-28 · home run · FS · fly_ball · EV 106.0 / LA 41.02026-03-28 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 101.5 / LA 15.02026-03-28 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 92.0 / LA 36.02026-03-28 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 83.9 / LA 8.02026-03-28 · field out · SI · popup · EV 50.9 / LA 34.02026-03-29 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 98.0 / LA 29.02026-03-29 · double · SL · fly_ball · EV 103.4 / LA 29.02026-03-29 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 107.8 / LA 15.02026-03-29 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 84.8 / LA 37.02026-03-30 · single · ST · fly_ball · EV 67.4 / LA 31.02026-03-30 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 111.9 / LA 16.02026-03-31 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 101.5 / LA 18.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 83.2 / LA 61.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.5 / LA 36.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · popup · EV 87.0 / LA 70.02026-04-01 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.0 / LA -1.02026-04-01 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.5 / LA 42.02026-04-03 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 63.2 / LA -47.02026-04-03 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 113.1 / LA 11.02026-04-04 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.7 / LA -3.02026-04-04 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.9 / LA -18.02026-04-05 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 106.6 / LA 13.02026-04-05 · triple · KC · line_drive · EV 99.4 / LA 17.02026-04-05 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 64.9 / LA -43.02026-04-05 · double · SI · fly_ball · EV 102.0 / LA 23.02026-04-06 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 79.9 / LA 2.02026-04-06 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 98.0 / LA 5.02026-04-06 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 97.3 / LA 38.02026-04-07 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 94.2 / LA -20.02026-04-08 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 88.6 / LA 8.02026-04-08 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 83.5 / LA 5.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 66.3 / LA 23.02026-04-10 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 106.8 / LA 13.02026-04-10 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 107.4 / LA 6.02026-04-10 · field out · FC · popup · EV 89.1 / LA 69.02026-04-10 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 82.0 / LA -21.02026-04-11 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.1 / LA -11.02026-04-11 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 91.3 / LA 39.02026-04-11 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 106.4 / LA 33.02026-04-11 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 99.4 / LA -12.02026-04-12 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 79.9 / LA 41.02026-04-12 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.1 / LA -6.02026-04-12 · field out · FF · popup · EV 75.5 / LA 51.02026-04-13 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 73.8 / LA 24.02026-04-13 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 84.3 / LA 9.02026-04-14 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 97.9 / LA 37.02026-04-14 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 87.0 / LA -11.02026-04-14 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 109.2 / LA -4.02026-04-17 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 94.3 / LA 28.02026-04-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.7 / LA 61.02026-04-18 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 96.8 / LA 0.02026-04-18 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 91.2 / LA 19.02026-04-18 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 105.9 / LA -11.02026-04-19 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 47.1 / LA -41.02026-04-19 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 99.9 / LA 45.02026-04-19 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 94.6 / LA 32.02026-04-20 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 99.7 / LA 18.02026-04-20 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.3 / LA -5.02026-04-20 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 96.3 / LA 54.02026-04-21 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 93.6 / LA -27.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.8 / LA 28.02026-04-21 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 65.4 / LA -58.02026-04-21 · field out · SL · popup · EV 77.7 / LA 73.02026-04-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 62.5 / LA -46.02026-04-22 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 103.0 / LA 6.02026-04-22 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 78.8 / LA 13.02026-04-22 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 86.8 / LA 1.02026-04-23 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 89.2 / LA 34.02026-04-23 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 96.1 / LA 12.02026-04-24 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.4 / LA 24.02026-04-24 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 95.7 / LA 19.02026-04-24 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 65.0 / LA 3.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 80.0 / LA -40.02026-04-25 · field out · EP · fly_ball · EV 70.0 / LA 33.02026-04-25 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 92.9 / LA 16.02026-04-25 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 98.6 / LA 9.02026-04-25 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 87.0 / LA -14.02026-04-25 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 98.3 / LA 21.02026-04-26 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 104.7 / LA 28.02026-04-26 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 101.1 / LA 2.02026-04-26 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 103.4 / LA 9.02026-04-27 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 70.5 / LA 54.02026-04-27 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 107.4 / LA 20.02026-04-27 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.4 / LA -12.02026-04-27 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 94.9 / LA 34.02026-04-28 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 89.1 / LA 62.02026-04-29 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 82.5 / LA 14.02026-04-29 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 44.3 / LA -82.02026-04-29 · single · CU · fly_ball · EV 76.9 / LA 32.02026-05-01 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 88.3 / LA -3.02026-05-01 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 88.2 / LA 61.02026-05-01 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 77.8 / LA -4.02026-05-01 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 94.1 / LA 27.02026-05-02 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.7 / LA 3.02026-05-02 · single · SI · fly_ball · EV 70.8 / LA 27.02026-05-02 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.2 / LA -21.02026-05-04 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 85.5 / LA 10.02026-05-04 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 88.5 / LA 51.02026-05-05 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 109.1 / LA 23.02026-05-05 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 105.7 / LA -7.02026-05-05 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.2 / LA -19.02026-05-06 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 99.2 / LA 35.02026-05-06 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 97.8 / LA 24.02026-05-07 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 93.1 / LA 38.02026-05-07 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 98.8 / LA 23.02026-05-07 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 82.8 / LA 43.02026-05-07 · sac fly · ST · fly_ball · EV 83.6 / LA 34.02026-05-08 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 106.9 / LA 23.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.5 / LA 33.02026-05-10 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 78.7 / LA -9.02026-05-10 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 70.9 / LA 11.02026-05-10 · field out · FC · popup · EV 72.5 / LA 60.02026-05-12 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 105.6 / LA 32.02026-05-12 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 88.4 / LA 32.02026-05-12 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 109.3 / LA 4.02026-05-13 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.5 / LA 4.02026-05-13 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 103.3 / LA 6.02026-05-13 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.5 / LA 8.02026-05-13 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 75.7 / LA -6.02026-05-14 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 79.2 / LA -20.02026-05-14 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 93.1 / LA -3.02026-05-14 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 59.1 / LA -4.02026-05-14 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 84.9 / LA 4.02026-05-15 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 99.9 / LA 46.02026-05-15 · field out · CU · popup · EV 84.6 / LA 70.02026-05-15 · field out · SL · popup · EV 84.3 / LA 78.02026-05-16 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 90.2 / LA 16.02026-05-16 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.4 / LA 38.02026-05-16 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 88.0 / LA 15.02026-05-17 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 85.1 / LA -11.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · popup · EV 66.3 / LA 53.02026-05-17 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 111.3 / LA 17.02026-05-17 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 92.6 / LA 41.02026-05-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 91.6 / LA -25.02026-05-18 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 91.4 / LA 58.02026-05-18 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 97.8 / LA 7.02026-05-19 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 97.2 / LA 22.02026-05-19 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 79.1 / LA 22.02026-05-19 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.6 / LA 37.02026-05-19 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 94.5 / LA -13.02026-05-19 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 73.6 / LA -15.02026-05-20 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 101.1 / LA 23.02026-05-20 · single · SI · fly_ball · EV 71.4 / LA 27.02026-05-22 · double · SL · fly_ball · EV 102.0 / LA 28.02026-05-22 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 90.5 / LA 16.02026-05-22 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 87.0 / LA 53.02026-05-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.6 / LA 53.02026-05-22 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.9 / LA -7.02026-05-23 · field out · CU · popup · EV 67.2 / LA 73.02026-05-23 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 89.3 / LA 41.02026-05-24 · double · CH · fly_ball · EV 91.9 / LA 36.02026-05-24 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 85.7 / LA 38.02026-05-24 · double · SI · fly_ball · EV 100.6 / LA 24.02026-05-26 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 92.9 / LA 33.02026-05-26 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 72.0 / LA -3.02026-05-26 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 67.6 / LA -2.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.9 / LA -8.02026-05-27 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 76.7 / LA 29.02026-05-27 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 97.8 / LA 10.02026-05-27 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 100.4 / LA 18.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 83.6 / LA -26.02026-05-31 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 98.9 / LA 30.02026-05-31 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 97.2 / LA 10.02026-05-31 · single · SI · fly_ball · EV 73.5 / LA 26.02026-05-31 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 100.0 / LA 29.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics SWING PATH Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Swing Path Abreu, Wilyer · aggregate bat-tracking arc Swing tilt 32.8° Length 7.1 ft Ideal path 50% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics ATTACK ANGLE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Attack Angle Abreu, Wilyer · aggregate attack vector Attack angle 6.7° Direction +0.9° MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Abreu, Wilyer · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 73.8 mph Hard swing rate 38% Whiff / swing 16% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Abreu, Wilyer · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 49%49%Chase: 30%30%Whiff: 20%20%Zone contact: 85%85%Contact: 80%80%Hard hit: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.264 vs 0.228 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
3
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.021
wOBA Δ+0.030
Sample261 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances470----
Home Runs19----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3290.298 to 0.354+/- 0.028
ISO0.1990.159 to 0.277+/- 0.059
Barrel%7.0%4.5% to 8.7%+/- 2.1%
Hard-Hit%46.0%40.2% to 52.8%+/- 6.3%
K%25.5%19.0% to 30.7%+/- 5.9%
BB%9.7%6.7% to 12.0%+/- 2.6%
BABIP0.2850.230 to 0.326+/- 0.048
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

155 career PA

xwOBA0.228
K%19.6%
BB%6.7%
Barrel3.5%
vs RHP

864 career PA

xwOBA0.264
K%20.3%
BB%7.9%
Barrel6.0%