Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.242 vs 0.212 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / LAD · 2026
Thomas, Alek
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team LAD
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
56
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.309 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.292 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.303 |
| Observed weight | 35% |
xwOBA
0.273
0.287
0.303
0.319
0.333
wOBA
0.282
0.309
0.338
0.368
0.394
ISO
0.130
0.149
0.171
0.192
0.211
K%
19.4%
20.9%
22.7%
24.4%
26.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.8%
77
+23 vs proj
Exit velocity88.7
56
Hard-hit%44.4%
73
+16 vs proj
xBA0.314
40
xSLG0.530
56
xwOBA0.292
34
BB%3.4%
5
Bat speed66.5
16
K%22.9%
47
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · CF
55
Arm Strength86.9 · CF
8
Outs Above Avg2.0 · CF
90
Range Runs1.5 · CF
68
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.8 · CF
61
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 51.9% · rebadged research
6
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.7% · rebadged research
35
Correct Decisions59.7% · rebadged research
8
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.287 · borderline
49
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.247 · insufficient sample
99
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.298 · validated thin sample
13
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.323 · insufficient sample
76
Resists FastballwOBA 0.323 · validated
79
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.364 · validated
36
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline87
8
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
83 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.010 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.036 |
| Sample | 118 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 459 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 12 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.302 | 0.274 to 0.347 | +/- 0.036 |
| ISO | 0.139 | 0.100 to 0.214 | +/- 0.057 |
| Barrel% | 5.3% | 3.2% to 7.5% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 40.7% | 37.4% to 49.1% | +/- 5.9% |
| K% | 22.1% | 19.6% to 28.4% | +/- 4.4% |
| BB% | 5.6% | 4.2% to 8.8% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.279 | 0.245 to 0.331 | +/- 0.043 |
vs LHP
325 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.212 |
| K% | 18.2% |
| BB% | 3.6% |
| Barrel | 3.0% |
vs RHP
1213 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.242 |
| K% | 18.2% |
| BB% | 4.5% |
| Barrel | 4.4% |