Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / CWS · 2026

Vargas, Miguel

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.306 xwOBA
Range
0.288 to 0.365
Live Δ
yes
Team CWS Archetype Balanced regular Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.319
xwOBA current pace0.388
xwOBA rolling p500.357
Observed weight55%
xwOBA
0.330 0.343 0.357 0.371 0.384
wOBA
0.356 0.374 0.393 0.413 0.431
ISO
0.167 0.183 0.200 0.217 0.232
K%
16.2% 17.2% 18.4% 19.6% 20.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%15.7%
96 +29 vs proj
Barrel%9.1%
89 +41 vs proj
Bat speed72.2
81
Exit velocity90.2
74
Hard-hit%45.3%
72 +40 vs proj
K%17.2%
79
xBA0.321
46
xSLG0.655
86
xwOBA0.388
94 +47 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 3B
63
Arm Strength85.3 · 3B
46
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 3B
27
Range Runs-2.4 · 3B
16
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · 3B
79
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
93
Sprint Speed28.3 · 3B
78
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 77.3% · rebadged research
96
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.5% · rebadged research
80
Correct Decisions74.8% · rebadged research
97
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline113
96
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.287 · borderline
43
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.289 · insufficient sample
18
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.302 · validated thin sample
6
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.335 · insufficient sample
41
Resists FastballwOBA 0.368 · validated
11
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.370 · validated
22
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Vargas, Miguel · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.4062026-05-19: 0.4072026-05-21: 0.3972026-05-23: 0.3982026-05-24: 0.3972026-05-25: 0.3992026-05-26: 0.4002026-05-28: 0.3942026-05-29: 0.3922026-05-30: 0.3892026-05-31: 0.3882026-06-01: 0.388 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Miguel Vargas's tools (82) outpace production (75) by 7 points. Primary finding: elite raw contact quality undermined by swing decisions — the bat is dangerous when it connects. Also flagged: Launch Angle Too High.

See full optimization →

Launch Angle Too High
-19.5° Current 40° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.
Contact-Discipline Mismatch
Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

171 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Vargas, Miguel · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 19% of plotted batted ballsPull 19%Center field third: 65% of plotted batted ballsCenter 65%Right field third: 16% of plotted batted ballsOppo 16% LF 330 CF 400 RF 335 2026-03-15 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.8 / LA 27.02026-03-15 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 108.9 / LA 17.02026-03-17 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.4 / LA 2.02026-03-17 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 86.0 / LA -9.02026-03-19 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 96.7 / LA 23.02026-03-19 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 75.3 / LA 45.02026-03-19 · sac fly · ST · fly_ball · EV 99.9 / LA 41.02026-03-21 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 94.5 / LA 3.02026-03-21 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 82.1 / LA -6.02026-03-21 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 72.3 / LA -14.02026-03-22 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 84.6 / LA 55.02026-03-22 · field out · ST · popup · EV 75.4 / LA 62.02026-03-23 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 90.2 / LA -12.02026-03-23 · sac fly · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.2 / LA 41.02026-03-29 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.5 / LA 30.02026-03-29 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 59.5 / LA -18.02026-03-29 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 95.3 / LA 13.02026-03-29 · single · SI · fly_ball · EV 73.0 / LA 43.02026-03-30 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 71.0 / LA 23.02026-03-30 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 105.5 / LA 36.02026-03-30 · sac fly · SL · fly_ball · EV 88.6 / LA 52.02026-03-30 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 84.7 / LA 3.02026-03-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 85.7 / LA 33.02026-03-31 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 99.3 / LA 50.02026-03-31 · double · ST · fly_ball · EV 98.0 / LA 24.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.9 / LA 50.02026-04-01 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 51.2 / LA -63.02026-04-03 · field error · SL · ground_ball · EV 48.9 / LA 3.02026-04-03 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 77.3 / LA -8.02026-04-03 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 96.4 / LA 20.02026-04-03 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 60.3 / LA -7.02026-04-04 · double · FC · fly_ball · EV 109.1 / LA 21.02026-04-04 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 100.6 / LA 18.02026-04-05 · triple · FF · line_drive · EV 101.3 / LA 14.02026-04-05 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 93.2 / LA 29.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.8 / LA 34.02026-04-05 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 69.1 / LA 10.02026-04-06 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 101.5 / LA -10.02026-04-06 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 68.2 / LA -42.02026-04-07 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 65.2 / LA 13.02026-04-07 · field out · FF · popup · EV 89.6 / LA 74.02026-04-08 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 98.3 / LA 29.02026-04-08 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 29.0 / LA -50.02026-04-09 · field out · CS · fly_ball · EV 89.8 / LA 50.02026-04-09 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 107.1 / LA -19.02026-04-09 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.2 / LA -11.02026-04-10 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 97.2 / LA -11.02026-04-10 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 100.4 / LA -8.02026-04-10 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.5 / LA -12.02026-04-12 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 79.7 / LA -29.02026-04-12 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.3 / LA 48.02026-04-14 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 88.1 / LA 21.02026-04-14 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 107.6 / LA 16.02026-04-14 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 97.1 / LA 23.02026-04-14 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 84.9 / LA 32.02026-04-15 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 97.0 / LA 29.02026-04-15 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 109.4 / LA 7.02026-04-15 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 90.2 / LA 20.02026-04-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.1 / LA 41.02026-04-16 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 72.9 / LA -12.02026-04-16 · field out · FF · popup · EV 84.5 / LA 74.02026-04-16 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 109.6 / LA 16.02026-04-16 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 81.4 / LA 26.02026-04-16 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 103.9 / LA 25.02026-04-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.6 / LA 49.02026-04-17 · single · FC · popup · EV 63.2 / LA 55.02026-04-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.3 / LA 30.02026-04-17 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.2 / LA -12.02026-04-18 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.9 / LA -7.02026-04-18 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 94.7 / LA -18.02026-04-18 · field out · CH · popup · EV 80.7 / LA 68.02026-04-18 · field out · FF · popup · EV 99.6 / LA 69.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 72.3 / LA -10.02026-04-19 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.5 / LA 35.02026-04-19 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 95.7 / LA 9.02026-04-21 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 74.7 / LA 46.02026-04-21 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 91.4 / LA -25.02026-04-21 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 82.1 / LA -5.02026-04-21 · home run · SI · line_drive · EV 111.7 / LA 20.02026-04-22 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 106.9 / LA 12.02026-04-22 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 109.0 / LA 34.02026-04-22 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 99.2 / LA 18.02026-04-23 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 100.7 / LA 30.02026-04-23 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 98.0 / LA 26.02026-04-23 · single · SV · ground_ball · EV 94.2 / LA 5.02026-04-23 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 68.1 / LA -11.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.1 / LA 55.02026-04-24 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 78.5 / LA 22.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.4 / LA 45.02026-04-24 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 57.6 / LA 14.02026-04-25 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 100.0 / LA 22.02026-04-25 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 87.6 / LA 39.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.4 / LA 27.02026-04-26 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 98.2 / LA 17.02026-04-27 · field out · SI · popup · EV 83.0 / LA 67.02026-04-27 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.0 / LA 28.02026-04-28 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 102.5 / LA 10.02026-04-29 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 69.8 / LA -36.02026-04-29 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 92.0 / LA -10.02026-04-29 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 102.5 / LA 2.02026-05-01 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 100.5 / LA 5.02026-05-01 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 96.7 / LA 21.02026-05-01 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 99.8 / LA 20.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.0 / LA -4.02026-05-02 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 89.1 / LA 53.02026-05-02 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 64.8 / LA 30.02026-05-02 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 81.0 / LA -13.02026-05-03 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 55.1 / LA -83.02026-05-04 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 85.4 / LA 7.02026-05-04 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 97.8 / LA 12.02026-05-04 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.1 / LA 31.02026-05-04 · field out · FF · popup · EV 93.3 / LA 71.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.5 / LA 28.02026-05-05 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 81.9 / LA 7.02026-05-05 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 62.2 / LA -27.02026-05-06 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 103.0 / LA 22.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 73.9 / LA 12.02026-05-06 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 84.7 / LA -27.02026-05-08 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 91.3 / LA 57.02026-05-08 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 83.2 / LA 0.02026-05-08 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 89.2 / LA -17.02026-05-09 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 106.5 / LA 25.02026-05-09 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 112.9 / LA 27.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 107.4 / LA 20.02026-05-10 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 108.4 / LA 21.02026-05-10 · field out · SI · popup · EV 70.3 / LA 53.02026-05-10 · sac fly · ST · fly_ball · EV 69.7 / LA 35.02026-05-12 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 90.9 / LA 12.02026-05-12 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 100.9 / LA -1.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.4 / LA 29.02026-05-13 · single · SV · line_drive · EV 99.9 / LA 12.02026-05-13 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 78.5 / LA 50.02026-05-13 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 96.9 / LA 30.02026-05-14 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.9 / LA -1.02026-05-14 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 100.8 / LA 4.02026-05-15 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 105.0 / LA 17.02026-05-15 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 101.8 / LA 26.02026-05-15 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 81.5 / LA 47.02026-05-15 · field out · SI · popup · EV 85.3 / LA 53.02026-05-16 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 108.4 / LA 24.02026-05-16 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 49.2 / LA 4.02026-05-16 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 87.3 / LA 45.02026-05-16 · field out · FC · popup · EV 81.4 / LA 61.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.6 / LA 38.02026-05-17 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.8 / LA 26.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · popup · EV 89.3 / LA 84.02026-05-18 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 96.6 / LA 35.02026-05-18 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 86.8 / LA -24.02026-05-18 · field out · ST · popup · EV 72.6 / LA 70.02026-05-19 · field out · FF · popup · EV 84.0 / LA 85.02026-05-22 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 86.1 / LA 35.02026-05-22 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.6 / LA -6.02026-05-22 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 106.4 / LA 6.02026-05-23 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 104.8 / LA 18.02026-05-23 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 107.0 / LA 16.02026-05-23 · field out · SL · popup · EV 85.3 / LA 85.02026-05-23 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 91.3 / LA 29.02026-05-24 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 98.5 / LA 51.02026-05-24 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 99.8 / LA 28.02026-05-25 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 43.02026-05-25 · field out · SL · popup · EV 84.6 / LA 70.02026-05-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.0 / LA 29.02026-05-25 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 95.1 / LA 32.02026-05-26 · field out · KC · popup · EV 71.0 / LA 59.02026-05-26 · field out · FF · popup · EV 92.4 / LA 73.02026-05-26 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 86.0 / LA 2.02026-05-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.1 / LA 41.02026-05-27 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 101.7 / LA 15.02026-05-31 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 100.7 / LA 5.02026-05-31 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.2 / LA 7.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 85.6 / LA -28.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics SWING PATH Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Swing Path Vargas, Miguel · aggregate bat-tracking arc Swing tilt 34.6° Length 7.6 ft Ideal path 59% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics ATTACK ANGLE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Attack Angle Vargas, Miguel · aggregate attack vector Attack angle 11.2° Direction -1.5° MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Vargas, Miguel · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 72.8 mph Hard swing rate 31% Whiff / swing 17% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Vargas, Miguel · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 48%48%Chase: 18%18%Whiff: 18%18%Zone contact: 84%84%Contact: 82%82%Hard hit: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.082
wOBA Δ+0.087
Sample274 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances520----
Home Runs14----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3060.288 to 0.365+/- 0.039
ISO0.1330.105 to 0.226+/- 0.061
Barrel%5.0%3.5% to 7.3%+/- 1.9%
Hard-Hit%36.0%31.3% to 43.5%+/- 6.1%
K%19.1%17.1% to 24.2%+/- 3.6%
BB%10.1%7.7% to 13.8%+/- 3.1%
BABIP0.2630.236 to 0.300+/- 0.032
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

388 career PA

xwOBA0.250
K%14.1%
BB%8.8%
Barrel3.9%
vs RHP

849 career PA

xwOBA0.247
K%15.7%
BB%8.9%
Barrel4.5%