Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 19 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / WSH · 2026

Mead, Curtis

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.294 xwOBA
Range
0.250 to 0.348
Live Δ
yes
Team WSH Archetype Balanced regular Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
74
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
73
Defense4 metrics
14
Speed2 metrics
26
Plate skills10 metrics
41
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-19
xwOBA preseason0.288
xwOBA current pace0.365
xwOBA rolling p500.333
Observed weight59%
xwOBA
0.304 0.318 0.333 0.348 0.362
wOBA
0.359 0.376 0.394 0.413 0.429
ISO
0.169 0.184 0.200 0.217 0.232
K%
17.4% 18.7% 20.2% 21.6% 22.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.9%
85 +60 vs proj
Exit velocity87.8
46
Hard-hit%44.2%
73 +43 vs proj
xBA0.340
68
xSLG0.607
79
xwOBA0.365
91 +54 vs proj
BB%10.8%
74 +54 vs proj
Bat speed70.5
64
K%18.4%
73 +21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · 3B
43
Arm Strength78.5 · 3B
3
Outs Above Avg-6.0 · 3B
5
Range Runs-6.0 · 3B
5
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.4 · 3B
12
Sprint Speed27.0 · 3B
40
SB Success Rate33.3% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-19
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.9% · rebadged research
78
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.0% · rebadged research
24
Correct Decisions66.7% · rebadged research
56
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.303 · borderline
20
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.327 · insufficient sample
0
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.297 · validated thin sample
15
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.354 · insufficient sample
13
Resists FastballwOBA 0.316 · validated
88
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358 · validated
52
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
62
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Mead, Curtis · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.365 2026-07-08: 0.3602026-07-09: 0.3602026-07-10: 0.3612026-07-11: 0.3612026-07-12: 0.3602026-07-13: 0.3622026-07-14: 0.3652026-07-15: 0.3652026-07-16: 0.3652026-07-17: 0.3652026-07-18: 0.3652026-07-19: 0.365 2026-07-08 2026-07-19 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Curtis Mead's tools (76) outpace production (81) by -5 points. Primary finding: elite raw contact quality undermined by swing decisions — the bat is dangerous when it connects.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Chase Rate Problem
Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment

Protected takes / Chase risk
Contact-Discipline Mismatch
Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

139 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Mead, Curtis · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 17% of plotted batted ballsPull 17%Center field third: 70% of plotted batted ballsCenter 70%Right field third: 13% of plotted batted ballsOppo 13% LF 337 CF 402 RF 335 2026-03-16 · field out · SL · popup · EV 66.6 / LA 50.02026-03-16 · fielders choice out · FF · ground_ball · EV 69.2 / LA -64.02026-03-16 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 95.6 / LA 32.02026-03-19 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 105.3 / LA 23.02026-03-19 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 30.5 / LA -10.02026-03-20 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 98.7 / LA -31.02026-03-20 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 59.9 / LA 12.02026-03-23 · fielders choice out · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.4 / LA -6.02026-03-23 · double · CU · line_drive · EV 108.9 / LA 14.02026-03-31 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 90.7 / LA 31.02026-04-01 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 108.2 / LA 17.02026-04-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 85.5 / LA -17.02026-04-01 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 73.9 / LA -51.02026-04-04 · double · KC · ground_ball · EV 88.7 / LA -3.02026-04-04 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 5.02026-04-05 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 93.1 / LA 26.02026-04-06 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 73.4 / LA 43.02026-04-06 · double · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.7 / LA 7.02026-04-07 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 106.0 / LA 4.02026-04-07 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 107.6 / LA 28.02026-04-07 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 105.1 / LA -4.02026-04-10 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 102.4 / LA 7.02026-04-10 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 101.1 / LA 19.02026-04-10 · fielders choice out · SI · ground_ball · EV 68.6 / LA -2.02026-04-10 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 103.5 / LA -26.02026-04-11 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 92.5 / LA -31.02026-04-11 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 86.8 / LA 39.02026-04-11 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 96.8 / LA -2.02026-04-12 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 97.4 / LA 8.02026-04-12 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 70.1 / LA 28.02026-04-13 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 64.6 / LA -28.02026-04-13 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 82.1 / LA -11.02026-04-14 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 82.8 / LA 37.02026-04-14 · field out · SL · popup · EV 82.4 / LA 76.02026-04-15 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 65.6 / LA -61.02026-04-15 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 97.7 / LA 20.02026-04-15 · force out · FS · ground_ball · EV 102.3 / LA -6.02026-04-16 · field error · FF · ground_ball · EV 82.8 / LA -50.02026-04-16 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 74.7 / LA -16.02026-04-16 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 77.6 / LA 30.02026-04-17 · double play · CH · line_drive · EV 105.4 / LA 6.02026-04-18 · fielders choice out · SL · ground_ball · EV 82.2 / LA -44.02026-04-18 · field out · FF · popup · EV 97.9 / LA 66.02026-04-18 · field out · SI · popup · EV 76.4 / LA 68.02026-04-19 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 97.2 / LA -12.02026-04-19 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 109.6 / LA 27.02026-04-19 · force out · FF · fly_ball · EV 65.9 / LA 35.02026-04-19 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 77.9 / LA 46.02026-04-21 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 105.9 / LA 36.02026-04-22 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 47.2 / LA -65.02026-04-25 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 76.4 / LA 46.02026-04-26 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 81.9 / LA 2.02026-04-26 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 98.3 / LA 50.02026-04-26 · field out · FC · popup · EV 98.2 / LA 55.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · popup · EV 85.4 / LA 70.02026-04-29 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 105.9 / LA 14.02026-04-29 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 88.5 / LA -19.02026-04-29 · double · FC · ground_ball · EV 90.0 / LA 8.02026-04-29 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 100.7 / LA 7.02026-04-29 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 99.7 / LA 28.02026-04-30 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 91.9 / LA 45.02026-05-01 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 87.6 / LA 24.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 54.3 / LA 7.02026-05-02 · field out · SV · popup · EV 78.7 / LA 76.02026-05-02 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.6 / LA 25.02026-05-02 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 100.1 / LA -19.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.5 / LA 32.02026-05-05 · double · FS · fly_ball · EV 101.0 / LA 21.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.2 / LA 6.02026-05-05 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 82.9 / LA 19.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 60.0 / LA 1.02026-05-06 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 81.5 / LA 9.02026-05-07 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 78.6 / LA 20.02026-05-07 · force out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.9 / LA 57.02026-05-07 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 102.2 / LA 31.02026-05-07 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 106.2 / LA 3.02026-05-08 · double · CU · line_drive · EV 97.0 / LA 20.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 106.5 / LA 15.02026-05-10 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 96.7 / LA 19.02026-05-13 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 104.9 / LA 2.02026-05-15 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 90.0 / LA 34.02026-05-15 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 70.6 / LA -32.02026-05-15 · single · KC · ground_ball · EV 102.2 / LA -10.02026-05-16 · field out · SL · popup · EV 69.0 / LA 80.02026-05-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 81.8 / LA 40.02026-05-18 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 105.1 / LA 17.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 41.4 / LA -84.02026-05-20 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 83.1 / LA -8.02026-05-20 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 70.6 / LA 32.02026-05-21 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 81.4 / LA 14.02026-05-21 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 49.2 / LA 3.02026-05-21 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.9 / LA 44.02026-05-22 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 99.5 / LA 23.02026-05-22 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.0 / LA -3.02026-05-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.4 / LA 0.02026-05-22 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 102.3 / LA 29.02026-05-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.1 / LA 35.02026-05-24 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 86.4 / LA 0.02026-05-24 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 90.4 / LA 55.02026-05-24 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.6 / LA -3.02026-05-25 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 105.3 / LA 22.02026-05-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.5 / LA 53.02026-05-25 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 100.8 / LA 29.02026-05-25 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 88.2 / LA 45.02026-05-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.7 / LA 28.02026-05-26 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 63.4 / LA -18.02026-05-27 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 88.9 / LA 16.02026-05-27 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 99.9 / LA 41.02026-05-31 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 91.8 / LA 32.02026-05-31 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 78.3 / LA 27.02026-05-31 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 107.8 / LA -15.02026-06-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.8 / LA 27.02026-06-01 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 88.6 / LA 14.02026-06-01 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 92.2 / LA 16.02026-06-05 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 103.8 / LA 12.02026-06-05 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 60.8 / LA 23.02026-06-07 · double · SV · line_drive · EV 97.3 / LA 12.02026-06-07 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 85.4 / LA 52.02026-06-15 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 93.6 / LA 36.02026-06-15 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 85.5 / LA 13.02026-06-15 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.0 / LA -3.02026-06-20 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.0 / LA 1.02026-06-20 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 76.6 / LA 37.02026-06-22 · field out · SL · popup · EV 54.6 / LA 53.02026-06-22 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 28.02026-06-22 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 68.4 / LA -6.02026-06-22 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 101.1 / LA 37.02026-06-24 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 102.8 / LA 31.02026-06-24 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.4 / LA -19.02026-06-26 · field out · CH · popup · EV 75.5 / LA 86.02026-06-26 · single · CH · fly_ball · EV 66.1 / LA 33.02026-06-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 63.2 / LA 31.02026-06-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 51.8 / LA 5.02026-06-30 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 85.6 / LA -4.02026-07-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 74.4 / LA 38.02026-07-01 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 75.4 / LA 15.02026-07-01 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.0 / LA -9.02026-07-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball2026-07-01 · triple · SI · line_drive · EV 103.0 / LA 21.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Mead, Curtis · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 48%48%Chase: 25%25%Whiff: 15%15%Zone contact: 92%92%Contact: 85%85%Hard hit: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.070
wOBA Δ+0.100
Sample316 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances356----
Home Runs6----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.2940.250 to 0.348+/- 0.049
ISO0.1080.060 to 0.181+/- 0.060
Barrel%3.5%1.2% to 5.9%+/- 2.3%
Hard-Hit%34.5%28.7% to 42.5%+/- 6.9%
K%22.0%18.0% to 28.9%+/- 5.4%
BB%6.1%4.4% to 8.9%+/- 2.3%
BABIP0.2970.246 to 0.340+/- 0.047
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

223 career PA

xwOBA0.203
K%13.3%
BB%4.7%
Barrel2.2%
vs RHP

324 career PA

xwOBA0.183
K%15.9%
BB%3.5%
Barrel1.9%