Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / WSH · 2026

Mead, Curtis

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.294 xwOBA
Range
0.250 to 0.348
Live Δ
yes
Team WSH Archetype Balanced regular Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.288
xwOBA current pace0.371
xwOBA rolling p500.324
Observed weight44%
xwOBA
0.289 0.306 0.324 0.342 0.359
wOBA
0.352 0.375 0.400 0.425 0.448
ISO
0.134 0.153 0.173 0.194 0.212
K%
16.6% 18.2% 20.0% 21.8% 23.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%13.5%
90 +69 vs proj
Barrel%7.6%
80 +52 vs proj
Bat speed70.8
69
Exit velocity88.9
53
Hard-hit%47.0%
79 +53 vs proj
K%16.5%
82 +32 vs proj
xBA0.322
48
xSLG0.589
72
xwOBA0.371
89 +53 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · 1B
40
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · 1B
4
Range Runs-2.7 · 1B
13
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.2 · 1B
33
Sprint Speed26.8 · 1B
36
SB Success Rate33.3% · 1B
Limited
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.5% · rebadged research
81
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.9% · rebadged research
32
Correct Decisions67.4% · rebadged research
61
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.281 · borderline
61
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.321 · insufficient sample
0
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.293 · validated thin sample
14
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.351 · insufficient sample
14
Resists FastballwOBA 0.330 · validated
70
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351 · validated
68
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
70
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Mead, Curtis · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.3732026-05-19: 0.3732026-05-21: 0.3782026-05-23: 0.3732026-05-24: 0.3722026-05-25: 0.3662026-05-26: 0.3702026-05-28: 0.3752026-05-29: 0.3742026-05-30: 0.3742026-05-31: 0.3752026-06-01: 0.371 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Curtis Mead's tools (88) outpace production (81) by 7 points. Primary finding: excellent plate discipline but too passive on hittable pitches — letting strikes go by.

See full optimization →

Passive In-Zone Approach
Pass Attack Pass Attack Attack Attack Pass Attack Pass

Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts

Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

111 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Mead, Curtis · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 17% of plotted batted ballsPull 17%Center field third: 68% of plotted batted ballsCenter 68%Right field third: 15% of plotted batted ballsOppo 15% LF 337 CF 402 RF 335 2026-03-16 · field out · SL · popup · EV 66.6 / LA 50.02026-03-16 · fielders choice out · FF · ground_ball · EV 69.2 / LA -64.02026-03-16 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 95.6 / LA 32.02026-03-19 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 105.3 / LA 23.02026-03-19 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 30.5 / LA -10.02026-03-20 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 98.7 / LA -31.02026-03-20 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 59.9 / LA 12.02026-03-23 · fielders choice out · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.4 / LA -6.02026-03-23 · double · CU · line_drive · EV 108.9 / LA 14.02026-03-31 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 90.7 / LA 31.02026-04-01 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 73.9 / LA -51.02026-04-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 85.5 / LA -17.02026-04-01 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 108.2 / LA 17.02026-04-04 · double · KC · ground_ball · EV 88.7 / LA -3.02026-04-04 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 5.02026-04-05 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 93.1 / LA 26.02026-04-06 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 73.4 / LA 43.02026-04-06 · double · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.7 / LA 7.02026-04-07 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 105.1 / LA -4.02026-04-07 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 106.0 / LA 4.02026-04-07 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 107.6 / LA 28.02026-04-10 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 101.1 / LA 19.02026-04-10 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 103.5 / LA -26.02026-04-10 · fielders choice out · SI · ground_ball · EV 68.6 / LA -2.02026-04-10 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 102.4 / LA 7.02026-04-11 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 86.8 / LA 39.02026-04-11 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 92.5 / LA -31.02026-04-11 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 96.8 / LA -2.02026-04-12 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 70.1 / LA 28.02026-04-12 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 97.4 / LA 8.02026-04-13 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 82.1 / LA -11.02026-04-13 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 64.6 / LA -28.02026-04-14 · field out · SL · popup · EV 82.4 / LA 76.02026-04-14 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 82.8 / LA 37.02026-04-15 · force out · FS · ground_ball · EV 102.3 / LA -6.02026-04-15 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 97.7 / LA 20.02026-04-15 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 65.6 / LA -61.02026-04-16 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 74.7 / LA -16.02026-04-16 · field error · FF · ground_ball · EV 82.8 / LA -50.02026-04-16 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 77.6 / LA 30.02026-04-17 · double play · CH · line_drive · EV 105.4 / LA 6.02026-04-18 · field out · SI · popup · EV 76.4 / LA 68.02026-04-18 · fielders choice out · SL · ground_ball · EV 82.2 / LA -44.02026-04-18 · field out · FF · popup · EV 97.9 / LA 66.02026-04-19 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 77.9 / LA 46.02026-04-19 · force out · FF · fly_ball · EV 65.9 / LA 35.02026-04-19 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 109.6 / LA 27.02026-04-19 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 97.2 / LA -12.02026-04-21 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 105.9 / LA 36.02026-04-22 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 47.2 / LA -65.02026-04-25 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 76.4 / LA 46.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · popup · EV 85.4 / LA 70.02026-04-26 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 81.9 / LA 2.02026-04-26 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 98.3 / LA 50.02026-04-26 · field out · FC · popup · EV 98.2 / LA 55.02026-04-29 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 105.9 / LA 14.02026-04-29 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 100.7 / LA 7.02026-04-29 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 99.7 / LA 28.02026-04-29 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 88.5 / LA -19.02026-04-29 · double · FC · ground_ball · EV 90.0 / LA 8.02026-04-30 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 91.9 / LA 45.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 54.3 / LA 7.02026-05-01 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 87.6 / LA 24.02026-05-02 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.6 / LA 25.02026-05-02 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 100.1 / LA -19.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.5 / LA 32.02026-05-02 · field out · SV · popup · EV 78.7 / LA 76.02026-05-05 · double · FS · fly_ball · EV 101.0 / LA 21.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.2 / LA 6.02026-05-05 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 82.9 / LA 19.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 60.0 / LA 1.02026-05-06 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 81.5 / LA 9.02026-05-07 · force out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.9 / LA 57.02026-05-07 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 106.2 / LA 3.02026-05-07 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 102.2 / LA 31.02026-05-07 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 78.6 / LA 20.02026-05-08 · double · CU · line_drive · EV 97.0 / LA 20.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 106.5 / LA 15.02026-05-10 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 96.7 / LA 19.02026-05-13 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 104.9 / LA 2.02026-05-15 · single · KC · ground_ball · EV 102.2 / LA -10.02026-05-15 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 70.6 / LA -32.02026-05-15 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 90.0 / LA 34.02026-05-16 · field out · SL · popup · EV 69.0 / LA 80.02026-05-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 81.8 / LA 40.02026-05-18 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 105.1 / LA 17.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 41.4 / LA -84.02026-05-20 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 83.1 / LA -8.02026-05-20 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 70.6 / LA 32.02026-05-21 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 49.2 / LA 3.02026-05-21 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 81.4 / LA 14.02026-05-21 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.9 / LA 44.02026-05-22 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.0 / LA -3.02026-05-22 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 102.3 / LA 29.02026-05-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.4 / LA 0.02026-05-22 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 99.5 / LA 23.02026-05-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.1 / LA 35.02026-05-24 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.6 / LA -3.02026-05-24 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 86.4 / LA 0.02026-05-24 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 90.4 / LA 55.02026-05-25 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 105.3 / LA 22.02026-05-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.5 / LA 53.02026-05-25 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 100.8 / LA 29.02026-05-25 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 88.2 / LA 45.02026-05-26 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 63.4 / LA -18.02026-05-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.7 / LA 28.02026-05-27 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 99.9 / LA 41.02026-05-27 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 88.9 / LA 16.02026-05-31 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 78.3 / LA 27.02026-05-31 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 91.8 / LA 32.02026-05-31 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 107.8 / LA -15.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Mead, Curtis · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 48%48%Chase: 24%24%Whiff: 16%16%Zone contact: 91%91%Contact: 84%84%Hard hit: 47%47% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.077
wOBA Δ+0.106
Sample170 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances356----
Home Runs6----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.2940.250 to 0.348+/- 0.049
ISO0.1080.060 to 0.181+/- 0.060
Barrel%3.5%1.2% to 5.9%+/- 2.3%
Hard-Hit%34.5%28.7% to 42.5%+/- 6.9%
K%22.0%18.0% to 28.9%+/- 5.4%
BB%6.1%4.4% to 8.9%+/- 2.3%
BABIP0.2970.246 to 0.340+/- 0.047
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

223 career PA

xwOBA0.203
K%13.3%
BB%4.7%
Barrel2.2%
vs RHP

324 career PA

xwOBA0.183
K%15.9%
BB%3.5%
Barrel1.9%