Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / COL · 2026
Tovar, Ezequiel
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team COL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
38
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.304 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.278 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.286 |
| Observed weight | 68% |
xwOBA
0.265
0.275
0.286
0.298
0.308
wOBA
0.258
0.270
0.284
0.298
0.311
ISO
0.119
0.131
0.144
0.158
0.170
K%
23.2%
24.3%
25.5%
26.7%
27.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.9%
52
Exit velocity86.1
30
Hard-hit%34.2%
30
-28 vs proj
xBA0.309
39
xSLG0.504
52
xwOBA0.278
24
-21 vs proj
BB%6.2%
24
Bat speed69.8
51
K%25.2%
36
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.3 · SS
82
Arm Strength90.2 · SS
75
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · SS
27
Range Runs-0.7 · SS
47
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.9 · SS
79
Sprint Speed28.0 · SS
66
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 52.4% · rebadged research
6
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.8% · rebadged research
92
Correct Decisions63.2% · rebadged research
22
Resists FastballwOBA 0.273 · validated
100
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
21
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.272 · borderline
83
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · insufficient sample
44
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.267 · validated thin sample
82
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.326 · insufficient sample
58
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.356 · validated
50
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
213 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.021 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.015 |
| Sample | 468 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 479 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 14 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.299 | 0.282 to 0.358 | +/- 0.038 |
| ISO | 0.161 | 0.116 to 0.249 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% | 5.9% | 4.2% to 8.5% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 40.2% | 34.9% to 46.8% | +/- 6.0% |
| K% | 25.2% | 22.3% to 31.5% | +/- 4.6% |
| BB% | 4.6% | 2.9% to 7.8% | +/- 2.5% |
| BABIP | 0.325 | 0.290 to 0.385 | +/- 0.047 |
vs LHP
520 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.277 |
| K% | 23.5% |
| BB% | 5.2% |
| Barrel | 6.4% |
vs RHP
1310 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.252 |
| K% | 22.2% |
| BB% | 3.3% |
| Barrel | 5.0% |