Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / BOS · 2026
Rafaela, Ceddanne
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team BOS
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
33
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.303 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.281 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.287 |
| Observed weight | 73% |
xwOBA
0.267
0.277
0.287
0.298
0.307
wOBA
0.339
0.351
0.365
0.378
0.390
ISO
0.140
0.150
0.162
0.174
0.184
K%
18.6%
19.6%
20.7%
21.8%
22.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.9%
35
-22 vs proj
Exit velocity86.2
32
Hard-hit%32.9%
26
-23 vs proj
xBA0.315
45
xSLG0.454
32
xwOBA0.281
26
BB%4.1%
10
Bat speed67.1
21
K%20.2%
66
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.2 · CF
78
Arm Strength98.2 · CF
84
Outs Above Avg15.0 · CF
100
Range Runs13.7 · CF
99
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.0 · CF
43
Bolts26.0 · CF
80
SB Success Rate66.7% · CF
20
Sprint Speed29.0 · CF
89
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 55.0% · rebadged research
10
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.0% · rebadged research
42
Correct Decisions61.7% · rebadged research
14
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline90
11
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.331 · borderline
5
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.266 · insufficient sample
82
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.305 · validated thin sample
8
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.354 · insufficient sample
10
Resists FastballwOBA 0.318 · validated
85
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.362 · validated
34
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
257 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.014 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.069 |
| Sample | 585 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 568 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 16 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.296 | 0.274 to 0.344 | +/- 0.035 |
| ISO | 0.139 | 0.103 to 0.227 | +/- 0.062 |
| Barrel% | 5.4% | 3.9% to 8.5% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 38.6% | 34.7% to 47.4% | +/- 6.4% |
| K% | 20.9% | 17.4% to 27.6% | +/- 5.1% |
| BB% | 4.8% | 3.2% to 7.6% | +/- 2.2% |
| BABIP | 0.294 | 0.257 to 0.363 | +/- 0.053 |
vs LHP
354 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.246 |
| K% | 20.4% |
| BB% | 4.3% |
| Barrel | 6.4% |
vs RHP
967 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.239 |
| K% | 18.2% |
| BB% | 3.3% |
| Barrel | 4.6% |