Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / BOS · 2026
Rafaela, Ceddanne
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team BOS
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.303 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.298 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.301 |
| Observed weight | 52% |
xwOBA
0.274
0.287
0.301
0.314
0.327
wOBA
0.372
0.392
0.414
0.435
0.455
ISO
0.124
0.140
0.158
0.176
0.192
K%
18.7%
20.2%
21.7%
23.3%
24.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%6.8%
27
Barrel%5.1%
51
Bat speed67.4
23
Exit velocity88.1
45
Hard-hit%40.9%
53
K%21.4%
54
xBA0.312
38
xSLG0.474
38
xwOBA0.298
39
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.8 · CF
25
Arm Strength97.3 · CF
86
Outs Above Avg6.0 · CF
98
Range Runs7.9 · CF
98
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.5 · CF
28
Bolts3.0 · CF
43
SB Success Rate50.0% · CF
5
Sprint Speed28.9 · CF
91
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.9% · rebadged research
32
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.5% · rebadged research
56
Correct Decisions63.8% · rebadged research
28
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.297 · borderline
25
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · insufficient sample
39
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.307 · validated thin sample
4
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · insufficient sample
27
Resists FastballwOBA 0.341 · validated
46
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.366 · validated
27
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
37
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
152 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.003 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.118 |
| Sample | 234 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 568 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 16 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.296 | 0.274 to 0.345 | +/- 0.035 |
| ISO | 0.139 | 0.103 to 0.227 | +/- 0.062 |
| Barrel% | 5.4% | 3.9% to 8.5% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 38.6% | 34.6% to 47.4% | +/- 6.4% |
| K% | 20.9% | 17.4% to 27.6% | +/- 5.1% |
| BB% | 4.8% | 3.2% to 7.6% | +/- 2.2% |
| BABIP | 0.294 | 0.257 to 0.363 | +/- 0.053 |
vs LHP
354 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.246 |
| K% | 20.4% |
| BB% | 4.3% |
| Barrel | 6.4% |
vs RHP
967 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.239 |
| K% | 18.2% |
| BB% | 3.3% |
| Barrel | 4.6% |