Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / DET · 2026
Torkelson, Spencer
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team DET
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.326 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.321 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.324 |
| Observed weight | 53% |
xwOBA
0.298
0.310
0.324
0.337
0.350
wOBA
0.311
0.329
0.350
0.370
0.388
ISO
0.173
0.189
0.206
0.224
0.239
K%
24.4%
25.8%
27.5%
29.1%
30.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%10.8%
72
Barrel%8.8%
87
Bat speed71.5
75
Exit velocity90.2
73
Hard-hit%46.2%
76
K%29.7%
14
-24 vs proj
xBA0.342
66
xSLG0.651
85
xwOBA0.321
61
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · 1B
9
Range Runs-2.3 · 1B
18
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.7 · 1B
18
Sprint Speed26.2 · 1B
22
SB Success Rate0.0% · 1B
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 76.0% · rebadged research
93
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.6% · rebadged research
67
Correct Decisions72.3% · rebadged research
93
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline111
93
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.288 · borderline
39
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.253 · insufficient sample
98
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.268 · validated thin sample
75
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.303 · insufficient sample
97
Resists FastballwOBA 0.374 · validated
8
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.381 · validated
9
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
137 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.010 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.018 |
| Sample | 249 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 597 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 23 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.331 | 0.303 to 0.373 | +/- 0.035 |
| ISO | 0.211 | 0.158 to 0.278 | +/- 0.060 |
| Barrel% | 8.0% | 5.0% to 9.9% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 47.1% | 41.2% to 53.0% | +/- 5.9% |
| K% | 24.2% | 20.3% to 30.5% | +/- 5.1% |
| BB% | 10.4% | 7.6% to 12.9% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.289 | 0.249 to 0.332 | +/- 0.042 |
vs LHP
588 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.294 |
| K% | 18.5% |
| BB% | 10.4% |
| Barrel | 6.5% |
vs RHP
1718 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.277 |
| K% | 23.3% |
| BB% | 8.4% |
| Barrel | 6.3% |