Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / TEX · 2026
Foscue, Justin
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team TEX
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
74
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.210 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.327 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.272 |
| Observed weight | 53% |
xwOBA
0.217
0.243
0.272
0.300
0.326
wOBA
0.323
0.342
0.362
0.383
0.402
ISO
0.110
0.134
0.160
0.186
0.210
K%
22.6%
25.9%
29.7%
33.4%
36.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.9%
81
+51 vs proj
Exit velocity89.3
69
Hard-hit%41.9%
67
+56 vs proj
xBA0.337
72
xSLG0.610
82
xwOBA0.327
74
+67 vs proj
BB%7.3%
35
+17 vs proj
Bat speed69.5
47
K%25.7%
34
+29 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength78.7 · 2B
3
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 2B
47
Range Runs2.2 · 2B
77
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.6 · 2B
53
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.1% · rebadged research
60
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.1% · rebadged research
40
Correct Decisions67.1% · rebadged research
60
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.281 · borderline
71
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.304 · insufficient sample
7
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.262 · validated thin sample
87
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.365 · insufficient sample
4
Resists FastballwOBA 0.322 · validated
82
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.371 · validated
20
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
53
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
103 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.086 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.121 |
| Sample | 245 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 213 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.241 | 0.095 to 0.310 | +/- 0.108 |
| ISO | 0.131 | 0.026 to 0.222 | +/- 0.098 |
| Barrel% | 3.5% | 0.2% to 5.4% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 28.1% | 10.1% to 39.5% | +/- 14.7% |
| K% | 34.1% | 15.9% to 44.8% | +/- 14.4% |
| BB% | 5.5% | 0.9% to 10.0% | +/- 4.5% |
| BABIP | 0.261 | 0.122 to 0.333 | +/- 0.105 |
vs LHP
35 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.032 |
| K% | 7.5% |
| BB% | 1.0% |
| Barrel | 0.3% |
vs RHP
59 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.030 |
| K% | 7.8% |
| BB% | 0.9% |
| Barrel | 0.2% |