Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / TEX · 2026
Foscue, Justin
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team TEX
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.210 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.359 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.246 |
| Observed weight | 24% |
xwOBA
0.162
0.202
0.246
0.290
0.329
wOBA
0.251
0.285
0.323
0.360
0.394
ISO
0.032
0.068
0.108
0.147
0.183
K%
21.7%
26.9%
32.7%
38.6%
43.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%5.7%
18
Barrel%5.7%
60
+32 vs proj
Bat speed69.0
41
Exit velocity89.5
62
Hard-hit%43.2%
64
+53 vs proj
K%28.6%
18
xBA0.401
96
xSLG0.698
91
xwOBA0.359
83
+78 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength78.7 · 2B
7
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 2B
45
Range Runs1.6 · 2B
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.4 · 2B
53
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.2% · rebadged research
58
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.0% · rebadged research
13
Correct Decisions63.8% · rebadged research
28
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.279 · borderline
68
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.294 · insufficient sample
12
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274 · validated thin sample
59
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · insufficient sample
40
Resists FastballwOBA 0.325 · validated
78
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.377 · validated
14
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
36
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
42 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.117 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.081 |
| Sample | 70 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 213 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.241 | 0.095 to 0.310 | +/- 0.108 |
| ISO | 0.131 | 0.026 to 0.222 | +/- 0.098 |
| Barrel% | 3.5% | 0.2% to 5.4% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 28.1% | 10.1% to 39.5% | +/- 14.7% |
| K% | 34.1% | 15.9% to 44.8% | +/- 14.4% |
| BB% | 5.5% | 0.9% to 10.0% | +/- 4.5% |
| BABIP | 0.261 | 0.122 to 0.333 | +/- 0.105 |
vs LHP
35 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.032 |
| K% | 7.4% |
| BB% | 1.0% |
| Barrel | 0.3% |
vs RHP
59 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.030 |
| K% | 7.8% |
| BB% | 0.9% |
| Barrel | 0.2% |