Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / KC · 2026
Loftin, Nick
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team KC
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.307 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.307 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.307 |
| Observed weight | 31% |
xwOBA
0.268
0.286
0.307
0.328
0.347
wOBA
0.321
0.350
0.383
0.415
0.445
ISO
0.088
0.115
0.145
0.176
0.203
K%
10.6%
12.8%
15.3%
17.7%
19.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.9%
65
+24 vs proj
Barrel%3.0%
23
Bat speed66.9
20
Exit velocity86.4
26
Hard-hit%31.9%
20
K%13.9%
90
xBA0.263
8
xSLG0.382
11
xwOBA0.307
47
+21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength88.2 · 2B
71
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 2B
45
Arm Runs-0.1 · 2B
Limited
Range Runs-7.8 · 2B
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.5 · 2B
59
Sprint Speed28.1 · 2B
72
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.6% · rebadged research
91
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.8% · rebadged research
42
Correct Decisions67.5% · rebadged research
63
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.316 · borderline
9
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.268 · insufficient sample
81
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279 · validated thin sample
40
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.318 · insufficient sample
85
Resists FastballwOBA 0.329 · validated
72
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.367 · validated
25
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
84
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
66 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.022 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.098 |
| Sample | 101 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 321 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.285 | 0.253 to 0.354 | +/- 0.051 |
| ISO | 0.134 | 0.072 to 0.236 | +/- 0.082 |
| Barrel% | 3.6% | 1.5% to 6.4% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 32.9% | 28.3% to 43.6% | +/- 7.7% |
| K% | 14.3% | 12.0% to 24.9% | +/- 6.4% |
| BB% | 8.0% | 5.3% to 11.5% | +/- 3.1% |
| BABIP | 0.276 | 0.207 to 0.322 | +/- 0.057 |
vs LHP
159 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.193 |
| K% | 9.6% |
| BB% | 6.1% |
| Barrel | 2.8% |
vs RHP
332 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.180 |
| K% | 9.8% |
| BB% | 5.9% |
| Barrel | 2.4% |