Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / KC · 2026
Loftin, Nick
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team KC
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
31
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.307 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.318 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.313 |
| Observed weight | 51% |
xwOBA
0.281
0.296
0.313
0.330
0.345
wOBA
0.325
0.345
0.367
0.388
0.408
ISO
0.119
0.140
0.163
0.185
0.206
K%
11.1%
12.8%
14.6%
16.5%
18.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.6%
27
Exit velocity87.5
42
Hard-hit%29.7%
14
xBA0.289
21
xSLG0.428
22
xwOBA0.318
62
+36 vs proj
BB%9.8%
65
+23 vs proj
Bat speed66.7
17
K%13.3%
92
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · 3B
14
Arm Strength88.2 · 3B
66
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
43
Range Runs-5.4 · 3B
7
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.6 · 3B
61
Sprint Speed28.1 · 3B
70
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.9% · rebadged research
83
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.0% · rebadged research
33
Correct Decisions65.8% · rebadged research
46
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.316 · borderline
9
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · insufficient sample
77
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274 · validated thin sample
71
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.310 · insufficient sample
94
Resists FastballwOBA 0.345 · validated
37
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.370 · validated
23
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
71
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
97 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.033 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.082 |
| Sample | 225 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 321 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.285 | 0.253 to 0.354 | +/- 0.051 |
| ISO | 0.134 | 0.072 to 0.236 | +/- 0.082 |
| Barrel% | 3.6% | 1.5% to 6.4% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 32.9% | 28.3% to 43.6% | +/- 7.7% |
| K% | 14.3% | 12.0% to 24.9% | +/- 6.4% |
| BB% | 8.0% | 5.3% to 11.5% | +/- 3.1% |
| BABIP | 0.276 | 0.207 to 0.322 | +/- 0.057 |
vs LHP
159 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.193 |
| K% | 9.6% |
| BB% | 6.1% |
| Barrel | 2.8% |
vs RHP
332 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.180 |
| K% | 9.8% |
| BB% | 5.9% |
| Barrel | 2.4% |