Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / CIN · 2026
McLain, Matt
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team CIN
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.320 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.309 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.314 |
| Observed weight | 52% |
xwOBA
0.284
0.299
0.314
0.330
0.344
wOBA
0.299
0.317
0.338
0.358
0.377
ISO
0.129
0.143
0.160
0.176
0.190
K%
21.9%
23.4%
25.0%
26.6%
28.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%10.7%
71
+29 vs proj
Barrel%5.4%
55
Bat speed70.1
57
Exit velocity87.4
37
Hard-hit%38.1%
42
-19 vs proj
K%23.1%
42
xBA0.311
37
xSLG0.509
49
xwOBA0.309
50
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength89.6 · 2B
80
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 2B
88
Range Runs2.3 · 2B
80
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.0 · 2B
13
SB Success Rate75.0% · 2B
35
Sprint Speed28.6 · 2B
86
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.9% · rebadged research
83
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.1% · rebadged research
50
Correct Decisions69.0% · rebadged research
76
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
77
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.279 · borderline
67
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.267 · insufficient sample
83
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.272 · validated thin sample
62
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.325 · insufficient sample
70
Resists FastballwOBA 0.329 · validated
72
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358 · validated
45
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
156 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.002 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.027 |
| Sample | 242 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 503 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 15 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.311 | 0.265 to 0.358 | +/- 0.047 |
| ISO | 0.159 | 0.111 to 0.222 | +/- 0.056 |
| Barrel% | 5.8% | 3.4% to 8.1% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.3% | 36.6% to 48.9% | +/- 6.1% |
| K% | 25.7% | 23.7% to 34.1% | +/- 5.2% |
| BB% | 8.4% | 6.1% to 11.6% | +/- 2.8% |
| BABIP | 0.312 | 0.289 to 0.369 | +/- 0.040 |
vs LHP
246 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.251 |
| K% | 20.7% |
| BB% | 8.3% |
| Barrel | 4.5% |
vs RHP
782 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.229 |
| K% | 23.0% |
| BB% | 6.9% |
| Barrel | 4.2% |