Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / TB · 2026

Palacios, Richie

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.323 xwOBA
Range
0.269 to 0.355
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Ground-ball contact Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.320
xwOBA current pace0.307
xwOBA rolling p500.315
Observed weight38%
xwOBA
0.282 0.298 0.315 0.332 0.348
wOBA
0.281 0.305 0.332 0.359 0.384
ISO
0.075 0.098 0.125 0.151 0.175
K%
13.8% 15.8% 18.1% 20.4% 22.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%13.1%
87 +18 vs proj
Barrel%2.9%
23
Bat speed66.3
14
Exit velocity85.8
21
Hard-hit%27.1%
8
K%21.2%
55
xBA0.309
36
xSLG0.421
20
xwOBA0.307
47
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength85.5 · 2B
50
Outs Above Avg-4.0 · 2B
6
Range Runs-2.8 · 2B
11
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.6 · 2B
23
SB Success Rate62.5% · 2B
17
Sprint Speed27.0 · 2B
42
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.1% · rebadged research
53
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.5% · rebadged research
36
Correct Decisions63.2% · rebadged research
22
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.280 · borderline
63
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.257 · insufficient sample
95
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.283 · validated thin sample
31
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.353 · insufficient sample
11
Resists FastballwOBA 0.354 · validated
26
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.347 · validated
76
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
45
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Palacios, Richie · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.3232026-05-19: 0.3182026-05-21: 0.3292026-05-23: 0.3252026-05-24: 0.3252026-05-25: 0.3192026-05-26: 0.3142026-05-28: 0.3042026-05-29: 0.3042026-05-30: 0.3042026-05-31: 0.3072026-06-01: 0.307 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

85 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Palacios, Richie · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 14% of plotted batted ballsPull 14%Center field third: 73% of plotted batted ballsCenter 73%Right field third: 13% of plotted batted ballsOppo 13% LF 318 CF 408 RF 314 2026-03-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.3 / LA 43.02026-03-15 · field out · FF · popup · EV 66.0 / LA 75.02026-03-23 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 70.6 / LA -22.02026-03-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.2 / LA 28.02026-03-23 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 90.7 / LA 64.02026-03-24 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 101.3 / LA -6.02026-03-24 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 94.5 / LA -38.02026-03-26 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 88.9 / LA -25.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.6 / LA 41.02026-03-28 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 106.5 / LA 30.02026-03-29 · field out · ST · popup · EV 64.4 / LA 48.02026-03-29 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 101.2 / LA 17.02026-03-31 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 79.8 / LA 31.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · popup · EV 90.3 / LA 76.02026-04-04 · force out · ST · ground_ball · EV 75.4 / LA -14.02026-04-04 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 93.5 / LA 11.02026-04-05 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 99.0 / LA 12.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.9 / LA 38.02026-04-05 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 100.1 / LA 33.02026-04-07 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.3 / LA -6.02026-04-07 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 97.7 / LA -6.02026-04-12 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 78.1 / LA 4.02026-04-12 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.0 / LA -18.02026-04-15 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 65.3 / LA -68.02026-04-15 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 77.6 / LA 20.02026-04-16 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.0 / LA 0.02026-04-16 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 68.1 / LA 16.02026-04-17 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 89.2 / LA 23.02026-04-17 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 69.6 / LA -61.02026-04-18 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 90.9 / LA 25.02026-04-18 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 95.0 / LA 10.02026-04-19 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 101.4 / LA 17.02026-04-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 83.1 / LA 41.02026-04-20 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 73.0 / LA 27.02026-04-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 81.1 / LA -14.02026-04-20 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 91.0 / LA 11.02026-04-21 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 78.0 / LA -21.02026-04-22 · fielders choice out · FF · ground_ball · EV 63.8 / LA -24.02026-04-25 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 82.9 / LA 5.02026-04-25 · sac fly · FF · line_drive · EV 92.3 / LA 23.02026-04-28 · field out · CH · popup · EV 62.7 / LA 54.02026-04-28 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 90.5 / LA -26.02026-04-29 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.0 / LA -11.02026-04-29 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 38.1 / LA -55.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 84.5 / LA 44.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · popup · EV 63.2 / LA 27.02026-05-11 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 80.2 / LA 12.02026-05-11 · field out · FF · popup · EV 73.6 / LA 74.02026-05-11 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.5 / LA 0.02026-05-11 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 86.5 / LA 11.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.3 / LA 37.02026-05-13 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 85.6 / LA 17.02026-05-13 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 77.0 / LA -72.02026-05-15 · double · SL · popup · EV 70.9 / LA 55.02026-05-15 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 100.5 / LA -2.02026-05-16 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 71.5 / LA -32.02026-05-16 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 82.0 / LA 5.02026-05-16 · field out · FS · line_drive · EV 85.4 / LA 10.02026-05-16 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 98.0 / LA 13.02026-05-17 · field out · CU · popup · EV 75.9 / LA 47.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · popup · EV 88.4 / LA 62.02026-05-18 · single · FA · ground_ball · EV 89.2 / LA 0.02026-05-18 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 90.8 / LA 18.02026-05-19 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 105.3 / LA 19.02026-05-19 · field out · CU · ground_ball2026-05-20 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 97.4 / LA 14.02026-05-20 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 77.2 / LA 7.02026-05-20 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 93.0 / LA -13.02026-05-22 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 91.6 / LA -12.02026-05-22 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 87.1 / LA 41.02026-05-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 92.1 / LA -22.02026-05-24 · field out · FF · popup · EV 89.6 / LA 72.02026-05-25 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 18.2 / LA 25.02026-05-25 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 91.5 / LA 33.02026-05-25 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 99.9 / LA -1.02026-05-25 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 106.9 / LA 15.02026-05-25 · field out · CU · popup · EV 62.5 / LA 53.02026-05-26 · grounded into double play · KC · ground_ball · EV 82.7 / LA -19.02026-05-26 · field out · KC · line_drive · EV 96.9 / LA 23.02026-05-27 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 88.3 / LA -20.02026-05-27 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 99.3 / LA -17.02026-05-27 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 93.7 / LA -11.02026-05-27 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.4 / LA -20.02026-05-31 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 87.5 / LA 51.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 77.3 / LA -14.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Palacios, Richie · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 43%43%Chase: 29%29%Whiff: 20%20%Zone contact: 91%91%Contact: 80%80%Hard hit: 27%27% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.016
wOBA Δ+0.009
Sample137 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances265----
Home Runs7----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3230.269 to 0.355+/- 0.043
ISO0.1570.074 to 0.233+/- 0.080
Barrel%3.5%1.6% to 6.3%+/- 2.4%
Hard-Hit%33.1%27.7% to 43.8%+/- 8.1%
K%18.8%13.9% to 26.9%+/- 6.5%
BB%10.3%7.1% to 13.5%+/- 3.2%
BABIP0.2750.227 to 0.329+/- 0.051
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

98 career PA

xwOBA0.196
K%12.5%
BB%5.7%
Barrel1.9%
vs RHP

563 career PA

xwOBA0.210
K%11.5%
BB%7.9%
Barrel2.3%