Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / TEX · 2026
Helman, Michael
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team TEX
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 30
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.289 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.222 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.281 |
| Observed weight | 12% |
xwOBA
0.214
0.245
0.281
0.316
0.348
wOBA
0.260
0.314
0.375
0.436
0.490
ISO
0.092
0.124
0.159
0.195
0.227
K%
10.3%
14.1%
18.3%
22.5%
26.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · CF
Limited
Outs Above Avg-0.4 · CF · small sample regression applied
29
Regression applied
Range Runs-0.5 · CF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 53.8% · rebadged research
9
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.6% · rebadged research
27
Correct Decisions60.0% · rebadged research
9
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.288 · borderline
40
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.286 · validated thin sample
25
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.337 · insufficient sample
38
Resists FastballwOBA 0.320 · validated
85
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline89
9
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No chart yet
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
19 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 258 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.303 | 0.203 to 0.354 | +/- 0.075 |
| ISO | 0.158 | 0.093 to 0.245 | +/- 0.076 |
| Barrel% | 4.1% | 1.3% to 7.2% | +/- 2.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 34.1% | 23.1% to 41.3% | +/- 9.1% |
| K% | 20.3% | 12.8% to 30.6% | +/- 8.9% |
| BB% | 7.1% | 2.3% to 10.3% | +/- 4.0% |
| BABIP | 0.293 | 0.217 to 0.351 | +/- 0.067 |
vs LHP
65 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.082 |
| K% | 7.3% |
| BB% | 2.1% |
| Barrel | 2.0% |
vs RHP
77 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.080 |
| K% | 7.3% |
| BB% | 2.2% |
| Barrel | 1.8% |