Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / CLE · 2026
Kwan, Steven
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team CLE
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
14
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.320 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.309 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.313 |
| Observed weight | 63% |
xwOBA
0.290
0.301
0.313
0.325
0.336
wOBA
0.292
0.306
0.323
0.339
0.353
ISO
0.069
0.081
0.094
0.108
0.120
K%
8.3%
9.2%
10.3%
11.4%
12.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.3%
2
Exit velocity81.4
4
Hard-hit%10.1%
0
xBA0.289
21
xSLG0.357
4
xwOBA0.309
51
BB%14.1%
94
+49 vs proj
Bat speed60.5
0
K%10.6%
97
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.6 · CF
69
Arm Strength92.4 · CF
47
Outs Above Avg1.0 · CF
80
Range Runs5.4 · CF
92
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.4 · CF
55
Sprint Speed26.9 · CF
37
SB Success Rate66.7% · CF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 77.4% · rebadged research
97
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.3% · rebadged research
16
Correct Decisions67.6% · rebadged research
63
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
84
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.273 · borderline
80
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.274 · insufficient sample
68
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.248 · validated thin sample
98
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.323 · insufficient sample
76
Resists FastballwOBA 0.348 · validated
33
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.369 · validated
25
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
207 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.015 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.001 |
| Sample | 377 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 628 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 11 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.323 | 0.296 to 0.363 | +/- 0.034 |
| ISO | 0.117 | 0.080 to 0.207 | +/- 0.063 |
| Barrel% | 1.6% | 0.7% to 3.8% | +/- 1.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 21.9% | 18.6% to 29.5% | +/- 5.5% |
| K% | 8.6% | 7.0% to 15.6% | +/- 4.3% |
| BB% | 8.2% | 5.9% to 11.4% | +/- 2.8% |
| BABIP | 0.289 | 0.264 to 0.343 | +/- 0.039 |
vs LHP
832 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.268 |
| K% | 9.1% |
| BB% | 6.8% |
| Barrel | 1.1% |
vs RHP
1989 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.288 |
| K% | 7.9% |
| BB% | 8.1% |
| Barrel | 1.6% |