Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / CLE · 2026
Kwan, Steven
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team CLE
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.320 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.297 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.307 |
| Observed weight | 54% |
xwOBA
0.282
0.294
0.307
0.321
0.333
wOBA
0.286
0.304
0.323
0.343
0.361
ISO
0.070
0.085
0.101
0.117
0.132
K%
8.2%
9.3%
10.6%
11.9%
13.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%16.0%
96
+55 vs proj
Barrel%0.4%
3
Bat speed60.6
0
Exit velocity81.0
4
Hard-hit%9.3%
0
K%11.3%
95
xBA0.264
9
xSLG0.332
3
xwOBA0.297
38
-24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.5 · CF
36
Arm Strength90.7 · CF
32
Outs Above Avg0.0 · CF
45
Range Runs3.0 · CF
86
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.4 · CF
31
Sprint Speed26.6 · CF
30
SB Success Rate50.0% · CF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 77.5% · rebadged research
96
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.1% · rebadged research
15
Correct Decisions67.6% · rebadged research
65
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
82
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.270 · borderline
82
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.269 · insufficient sample
78
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.245 · validated thin sample
98
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.316 · insufficient sample
88
Resists FastballwOBA 0.335 · validated
60
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.369 · validated
23
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
184 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.026 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.000 |
| Sample | 256 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 628 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 11 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.323 | 0.296 to 0.363 | +/- 0.034 |
| ISO | 0.117 | 0.080 to 0.207 | +/- 0.063 |
| Barrel% | 1.6% | 0.7% to 3.8% | +/- 1.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 21.9% | 18.6% to 29.5% | +/- 5.5% |
| K% | 8.6% | 7.0% to 15.6% | +/- 4.3% |
| BB% | 8.2% | 5.9% to 11.4% | +/- 2.8% |
| BABIP | 0.289 | 0.264 to 0.343 | +/- 0.039 |
vs LHP
832 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.268 |
| K% | 9.1% |
| BB% | 6.8% |
| Barrel | 1.1% |
vs RHP
1989 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.288 |
| K% | 7.9% |
| BB% | 8.1% |
| Barrel | 1.6% |