Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window
Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.
Duran, Jarren
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.340 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.313 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.325 |
| Observed weight | 54% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Swing path and decision map
Jarren Duran's tools (83) outpace production (76) by 7 points. Primary finding: high exit velocity but low barrel rate — bat-to-ball efficiency is leaving power on the table. Also flagged: Launch Angle Too High; Passive In-Zone Approach.
Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts
Hittable takes / Expansion guardrailField-coordinate spray profile
153 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Projection notes
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.024 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.002 |
| Sample | 260 PA |
negative regression
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 646 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 17 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.336 | 0.303 to 0.374 | +/- 0.036 |
| ISO | 0.197 | 0.147 to 0.275 | +/- 0.064 |
| Barrel% | 6.0% | 3.7% to 7.8% | +/- 2.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 46.0% | 41.2% to 53.2% | +/- 6.0% |
| K% | 22.3% | 18.4% to 28.3% | +/- 4.9% |
| BB% | 7.7% | 5.6% to 10.7% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.325 | 0.290 to 0.385 | +/- 0.048 |
602 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.255 |
| K% | 22.4% |
| BB% | 5.3% |
| Barrel | 4.2% |
1671 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.292 |
| K% | 19.6% |
| BB% | 7.2% |
| Barrel | 5.2% |