Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / MIN · 2026
Jeffers, Ryan
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIN
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 29
Status IL-10
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.320 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.389 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.350 |
| Observed weight | 43% |
xwOBA
0.321
0.334
0.350
0.365
0.379
wOBA
0.418
0.442
0.468
0.494
0.517
ISO
0.173
0.191
0.211
0.230
0.248
K%
15.8%
17.2%
18.7%
20.3%
21.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%13.8%
92
+45 vs proj
Barrel%10.8%
95
+38 vs proj
Bat speed71.5
75
Exit velocity90.1
73
Hard-hit%41.0%
53
K%15.0%
86
+27 vs proj
xBA0.322
48
xSLG0.613
77
xwOBA0.389
94
+34 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.3 · C
64
Catcher Throwing-1.1 · C
12
Framing Runs1.6 · C
72
Pop Time2.0 · C
32
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.9 · C
14
Sprint Speed26.3 · C
24
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.8% · rebadged research
88
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.5% · rebadged research
27
Correct Decisions67.2% · rebadged research
60
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.324 · borderline
5
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.277 · insufficient sample
44
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.275 · validated thin sample
50
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.360 · insufficient sample
7
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339 · validated
52
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.421 · validated
0
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
76
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
117 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.069 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.147 |
| Sample | 167 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 490 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 16 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.321 | 0.291 to 0.362 | +/- 0.036 |
| ISO | 0.186 | 0.150 to 0.265 | +/- 0.058 |
| Barrel% | 5.5% | 3.6% to 7.4% | +/- 1.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 39.0% | 35.1% to 45.8% | +/- 5.4% |
| K% | 20.4% | 17.7% to 26.6% | +/- 4.4% |
| BB% | 8.8% | 7.3% to 11.8% | +/- 2.2% |
| BABIP | 0.289 | 0.266 to 0.338 | +/- 0.036 |
vs LHP
598 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.279 |
| K% | 17.0% |
| BB% | 9.9% |
| Barrel | 4.4% |
vs RHP
1387 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.259 |
| K% | 18.0% |
| BB% | 6.6% |
| Barrel | 4.6% |