Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / MIN · 2026
Jeffers, Ryan
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIN
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
78
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.320 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.389 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.350 |
| Observed weight | 44% |
xwOBA
0.322
0.335
0.350
0.366
0.379
wOBA
0.413
0.436
0.461
0.487
0.510
ISO
0.175
0.192
0.212
0.231
0.249
K%
15.7%
17.0%
18.6%
20.1%
21.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%10.2%
97
+40 vs proj
Exit velocity90.2
76
Hard-hit%41.1%
60
xBA0.326
56
xSLG0.610
79
xwOBA0.389
98
+33 vs proj
BB%13.6%
92
+40 vs proj
Bat speed71.2
72
K%14.8%
87
+25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.4 · C
72
Catcher Throwing-1.3 · C
15
Framing Runs0.9 · C
64
Pop Time2.0 · C
29
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.5 · C
27
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.8% · rebadged research
90
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.5% · rebadged research
27
Correct Decisions67.2% · rebadged research
61
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.325 · borderline
4
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · insufficient sample
46
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279 · validated thin sample
55
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.361 · insufficient sample
8
Resists FastballwOBA 0.338 · validated
50
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.423 · validated
1
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
76
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
117 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.068 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.141 |
| Sample | 176 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 490 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 16 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.321 | 0.291 to 0.362 | +/- 0.036 |
| ISO | 0.186 | 0.150 to 0.265 | +/- 0.058 |
| Barrel% | 5.5% | 3.6% to 7.4% | +/- 1.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 39.0% | 35.1% to 45.8% | +/- 5.4% |
| K% | 20.4% | 17.7% to 26.6% | +/- 4.4% |
| BB% | 8.8% | 7.3% to 11.8% | +/- 2.2% |
| BABIP | 0.289 | 0.266 to 0.338 | +/- 0.036 |
vs LHP
598 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.279 |
| K% | 17.0% |
| BB% | 9.9% |
| Barrel | 4.4% |
vs RHP
1387 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.259 |
| K% | 18.0% |
| BB% | 6.6% |
| Barrel | 4.6% |