Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / PIT · 2026
Davis, Henry
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team PIT
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
44
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.300 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.290 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.294 |
| Observed weight | 59% |
xwOBA
0.262
0.277
0.294
0.312
0.327
wOBA
0.269
0.285
0.302
0.320
0.336
ISO
0.115
0.132
0.151
0.169
0.186
K%
20.3%
21.6%
23.1%
24.6%
25.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.7%
64
Exit velocity88.3
54
Hard-hit%41.5%
66
xBA0.264
9
xSLG0.454
33
xwOBA0.290
36
BB%9.2%
59
+16 vs proj
Bat speed70.0
57
K%21.0%
62
+33 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs1.0 · C
78
Catcher Throwing1.9 · C
82
Framing Runs0.2 · C
52
Pop Time1.9 · C
78
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.1 · C
68
SB Success Rate66.7% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.9% · rebadged research
48
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.3% · rebadged research
89
Correct Decisions70.1% · rebadged research
87
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
70
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.272 · borderline
83
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · insufficient sample
56
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.231 · validated thin sample
100
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.315 · insufficient sample
77
Resists FastballwOBA 0.310 · validated
90
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.390 · validated
5
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
150 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.004 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.008 |
| Sample | 314 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 362 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.294 | 0.238 to 0.366 | +/- 0.064 |
| ISO | 0.137 | 0.067 to 0.222 | +/- 0.077 |
| Barrel% | 4.9% | 2.8% to 8.5% | +/- 2.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 39.0% | 30.9% to 48.6% | +/- 8.9% |
| K% | 26.6% | 24.1% to 34.8% | +/- 5.4% |
| BB% | 7.9% | 4.7% to 11.3% | +/- 3.3% |
| BABIP | 0.275 | 0.204 to 0.326 | +/- 0.061 |
vs LHP
183 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.200 |
| K% | 17.6% |
| BB% | 7.0% |
| Barrel | 3.1% |
vs RHP
509 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.193 |
| K% | 19.8% |
| BB% | 5.5% |
| Barrel | 3.9% |