Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.300 vs 0.261 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / SEA · 2026
Donovan, Brendan
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team SEA
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 29
Status IL-10
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.332 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.345 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.337 |
| Observed weight | 37% |
xwOBA
0.309
0.322
0.337
0.351
0.364
wOBA
0.455
0.482
0.512
0.542
0.569
ISO
0.117
0.134
0.154
0.173
0.191
K%
11.1%
12.5%
13.9%
15.4%
16.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%11.0%
73
+40 vs proj
Barrel%3.9%
34
Bat speed66.7
19
Exit velocity87.6
38
Hard-hit%36.0%
33
-15 vs proj
K%14.2%
89
xBA0.322
49
xSLG0.470
36
xwOBA0.345
78
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · 3B
4
Range Runs-3.6 · 3B
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.2 · 3B
8
SB Success Rate50.0% · 3B
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.6% · rebadged research
70
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.4% · rebadged research
14
Correct Decisions65.4% · rebadged research
43
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.253 · borderline
97
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.300 · insufficient sample
7
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.290 · validated thin sample
19
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.356 · insufficient sample
9
Resists FastballwOBA 0.376 · validated
7
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.348 · validated
72
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
48
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
88 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.017 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.184 |
| Sample | 127 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 537 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 12 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.328 | 0.303 to 0.365 | +/- 0.031 |
| ISO | 0.138 | 0.100 to 0.205 | +/- 0.052 |
| Barrel% | 4.9% | 3.4% to 7.1% | +/- 1.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 39.8% | 35.8% to 46.7% | +/- 5.4% |
| K% | 14.3% | 11.3% to 18.8% | +/- 3.8% |
| BB% | 7.3% | 5.9% to 11.0% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.294 | 0.280 to 0.341 | +/- 0.030 |
vs LHP
534 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.261 |
| K% | 12.3% |
| BB% | 5.7% |
| Barrel | 3.4% |
vs RHP
1587 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.300 |
| K% | 10.7% |
| BB% | 7.2% |
| Barrel | 4.7% |