Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / PHI · 2026
Stott, Bryson
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team PHI
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.311 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.303 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.307 |
| Observed weight | 50% |
xwOBA
0.277
0.291
0.307
0.323
0.337
wOBA
0.285
0.305
0.326
0.348
0.367
ISO
0.132
0.147
0.163
0.179
0.194
K%
14.6%
15.8%
17.1%
18.4%
19.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%5.0%
14
-27 vs proj
Barrel%5.5%
56
+30 vs proj
Bat speed68.2
30
Exit velocity89.5
61
Hard-hit%41.5%
58
+38 vs proj
K%16.1%
83
xBA0.305
33
xSLG0.484
41
xwOBA0.303
43
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 2B
56
Arm Strength86.5 · 2B
60
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 2B
93
Range Runs3.7 · 2B
91
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.5 · 2B
97
Bolts1.0 · 2B
17
SB Success Rate100.0% · 2B
93
Sprint Speed28.5 · 2B
83
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.2% · rebadged research
48
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 33.7% · rebadged research
5
Correct Decisions60.5% · rebadged research
10
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.291 · borderline
33
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.259 · insufficient sample
93
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.303 · validated thin sample
6
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.338 · insufficient sample
33
Resists FastballwOBA 0.315 · validated
90
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.343 · validated
82
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline93
15
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
164 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.008 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.015 |
| Sample | 218 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 562 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 13 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.311 | 0.274 to 0.362 | +/- 0.044 |
| ISO | 0.136 | 0.112 to 0.217 | +/- 0.052 |
| Barrel% | 3.3% | 2.3% to 5.7% | +/- 1.7% |
| Hard-Hit% | 32.0% | 26.9% to 38.4% | +/- 5.7% |
| K% | 16.8% | 14.9% to 22.4% | +/- 3.8% |
| BB% | 8.2% | 6.5% to 11.0% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.284 | 0.263 to 0.335 | +/- 0.036 |
vs LHP
598 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.255 |
| K% | 16.1% |
| BB% | 7.3% |
| Barrel | 2.8% |
vs RHP
1916 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.275 |
| K% | 14.1% |
| BB% | 7.3% |
| Barrel | 3.4% |