Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / BAL · 2026

Cowser, Colton

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.311 xwOBA
Range
0.268 to 0.379
Live Δ
yes
Team BAL Archetype Balanced regular Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
67
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
64
Defense4 metrics
73
Speed3 metrics
47
Plate skills10 metrics
43
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-02
xwOBA preseason0.313
xwOBA current pace0.323
xwOBA rolling p500.319
Observed weight62%
xwOBA
0.291 0.304 0.319 0.335 0.348
wOBA
0.292 0.307 0.324 0.341 0.356
ISO
0.130 0.144 0.160 0.176 0.190
K%
27.8% 29.2% 30.8% 32.3% 33.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.2%
69
Exit velocity87.0
40
Hard-hit%40.4%
59 -22 vs proj
xBA0.339
73
xSLG0.647
89
xwOBA0.323
71
BB%11.8%
86 +24 vs proj
Bat speed71.4
75
K%30.3%
14
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.5 · CF
40
Arm Strength97.2 · CF
79
Outs Above Avg1.0 · CF
80
Range Runs7.2 · CF
93
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.6 · CF
55
SB Success Rate66.7% · CF
20
Sprint Speed28.0 · CF
66
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-09-02
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.0% · rebadged research
60
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.9% · rebadged research
33
Correct Decisions64.9% · rebadged research
37
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
49
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.286 · borderline
57
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · insufficient sample
57
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288 · validated thin sample
25
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · insufficient sample
49
Resists FastballwOBA 0.337 · validated
53
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.388 · validated
6
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Cowser, Colton · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.303 0.323 2026-08-22: 0.3242026-08-23: 0.3242026-08-24: 0.3242026-08-25: 0.3192026-08-26: 0.3192026-08-27: 0.3222026-08-28: 0.3242026-08-29: 0.3242026-08-30: 0.3292026-08-31: 0.3262026-09-01: 0.3242026-09-02: 0.323 2026-08-22 2026-09-02 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Colton Cowser's production (79) outpaces the tools grade (78) by 1 points. Primary finding: excessive fly-ball angle — producing popups instead of line drives.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High
-11.0° Current 31° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

131 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Cowser, Colton · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 10% of plotted batted ballsPull 10%Center field third: 76% of plotted batted ballsCenter 76%Right field third: 15% of plotted batted ballsOppo 15% LF 333 CF 400 RF 318 2026-03-17 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 95.1 / LA 21.02026-03-17 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 66.5 / LA -23.02026-03-17 · field out · FF · popup · EV 99.0 / LA 73.02026-03-19 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 94.4 / LA -28.02026-03-21 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 79.8 / LA 0.02026-03-21 · field out · FF · popup · EV 79.7 / LA 63.02026-03-22 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 109.2 / LA 33.02026-03-26 · field out · KC · fly_ball · EV 89.8 / LA 53.02026-03-26 · sac fly · CH · fly_ball · EV 93.5 / LA 40.02026-03-28 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 103.9 / LA 19.02026-03-30 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 47.4 / LA -71.02026-03-30 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 63.2 / LA -34.02026-03-31 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 70.0 / LA 24.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 102.6 / LA 21.02026-03-31 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 98.0 / LA -34.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 98.5 / LA 22.02026-04-01 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 54.8 / LA -46.02026-04-01 · sac bunt · FC · ground_ball · EV 20.1 / LA -41.02026-04-01 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.8 / LA -7.02026-04-03 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 55.6 / LA -36.02026-04-03 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 86.7 / LA -5.02026-04-06 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 92.8 / LA -14.02026-04-06 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 104.6 / LA 39.02026-04-07 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 51.4 / LA 8.02026-04-11 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 109.8 / LA 10.02026-04-11 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.0 / LA 4.02026-04-11 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 53.6 / LA -64.02026-04-12 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 58.1 / LA -61.02026-04-12 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 77.0 / LA -16.02026-04-13 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 80.7 / LA 60.02026-04-13 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.2 / LA -11.02026-04-14 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 102.5 / LA -1.02026-04-14 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.2 / LA 40.02026-04-14 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 88.6 / LA -3.02026-04-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.6 / LA 51.02026-04-16 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.8 / LA 56.02026-04-17 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 91.8 / LA 2.02026-04-17 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 73.4 / LA -5.02026-04-19 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 103.1 / LA 41.02026-04-21 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.2 / LA -1.02026-04-22 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 112.5 / LA 22.02026-04-22 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 78.2 / LA 18.02026-04-22 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 89.6 / LA 22.02026-04-26 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 85.2 / LA 0.02026-04-30 · field out · SV · line_drive · EV 77.9 / LA 10.02026-04-30 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 75.1 / LA -4.02026-04-30 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 68.5 / LA -54.02026-05-04 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 112.2 / LA -1.02026-05-04 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 81.8 / LA -28.02026-05-05 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 81.8 / LA 32.02026-05-05 · fielders choice · CH · ground_ball · EV 87.2 / LA -29.02026-05-07 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 88.4 / LA 45.02026-05-07 · double play · ST · line_drive · EV 79.2 / LA 7.02026-05-09 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 87.2 / LA 20.02026-05-12 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 84.2 / LA 37.02026-05-12 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 89.6 / LA 46.02026-05-15 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.1 / LA 6.02026-05-17 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 113.3 / LA 25.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.8 / LA 31.02026-05-18 · field out · ST · popup · EV 82.2 / LA 73.02026-05-19 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 75.2 / LA 16.02026-05-20 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 82.4 / LA 15.02026-05-22 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 85.9 / LA 9.02026-05-24 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 77.0 / LA -29.02026-05-24 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 111.5 / LA 31.02026-05-24 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 60.7 / LA -46.02026-05-25 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 24.0 / LA 26.02026-05-25 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 91.0 / LA 36.02026-05-25 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 109.3 / LA 34.02026-05-26 · single · KC · ground_ball · EV 41.5 / LA -54.02026-05-27 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 72.5 / LA -37.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 81.3 / LA -7.02026-05-31 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 75.7 / LA 15.02026-05-31 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 108.0 / LA 35.02026-06-04 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 101.6 / LA 18.02026-06-04 · sac fly · CH · fly_ball · EV 85.2 / LA 37.02026-06-05 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 68.9 / LA -40.02026-06-05 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 111.8 / LA 12.02026-06-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 85.3 / LA 32.02026-06-05 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 94.9 / LA 24.02026-06-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 78.2 / LA -2.02026-06-07 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 49.3 / LA -2.02026-06-07 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 111.7 / LA 23.02026-06-07 · field out · FS · popup · EV 77.2 / LA 62.02026-06-18 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.2 / LA 5.02026-06-20 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 42.4 / LA -44.02026-06-20 · force out · CU · ground_ball · EV 25.8 / LA -62.02026-06-20 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 102.4 / LA 16.02026-06-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 71.0 / LA -28.02026-06-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 74.4 / LA -14.02026-06-24 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.6 / LA 4.02026-06-24 · field out · FF · popup · EV 97.2 / LA 79.02026-06-30 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 101.7 / LA 40.02026-07-31 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 77.3 / LA -17.02026-08-02 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 92.0 / LA 25.02026-08-04 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.3 / LA 34.02026-08-04 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 98.1 / LA 2.02026-08-07 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 99.1 / LA 11.02026-08-07 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 40.6 / LA -65.02026-08-08 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 102.4 / LA 15.02026-08-14 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 103.0 / LA 30.02026-08-16 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 78.8 / LA 21.02026-08-16 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 103.6 / LA 39.02026-08-16 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.9 / LA 46.02026-08-17 · field out · ST · popup · EV 68.1 / LA 80.02026-08-17 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 104.8 / LA -8.02026-08-19 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 97.8 / LA -12.02026-08-19 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 97.1 / LA 29.02026-08-19 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 91.7 / LA 19.02026-08-21 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 80.5 / LA 7.02026-08-21 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 75.1 / LA -5.02026-08-23 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 99.7 / LA 25.02026-08-23 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 93.9 / LA 30.02026-08-23 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 81.6 / LA 21.02026-08-26 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 105.0 / LA -1.02026-08-26 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.6 / LA 1.02026-08-26 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 104.1 / LA 15.02026-08-26 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 69.0 / LA 10.02026-08-27 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 108.6 / LA 7.02026-08-27 · sac fly · SI · fly_ball · EV 96.3 / LA 28.02026-08-27 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 109.9 / LA 8.02026-08-29 · field error · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.6 / LA 4.02026-08-29 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 93.5 / LA 28.02026-08-29 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 102.6 / LA 33.02026-08-29 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.1 / LA 32.02026-08-30 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 91.2 / LA 21.02026-08-30 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 77.4 / LA 1.02026-08-31 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 86.9 / LA 4.02026-08-31 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 55.7 / LA -55.02026-09-01 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 101.6 / LA 21.02026-09-01 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 82.8 / LA -4.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Cowser, Colton · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 48%48%Chase: 29%29%Whiff: 31%31%Zone contact: 80%80%Contact: 69%69%Hard hit: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.013
wOBA Δ+0.013
Sample356 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances448----
Home Runs18----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3110.268 to 0.379+/- 0.055
ISO0.1760.115 to 0.252+/- 0.068
Barrel%7.1%4.7% to 9.6%+/- 2.5%
Hard-Hit%45.2%37.8% to 53.5%+/- 7.8%
K%31.9%25.1% to 37.1%+/- 6.0%
BB%9.4%6.7% to 12.7%+/- 3.0%
BABIP0.2760.210 to 0.328+/- 0.059
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

264 career PA

xwOBA0.232
K%26.7%
BB%5.1%
Barrel5.4%
vs RHP

810 career PA

xwOBA0.257
K%25.5%
BB%8.1%
Barrel6.3%