Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / COL · 2026
Norby, Connor
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team COL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
46
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.325 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.295 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.308 |
| Observed weight | 59% |
xwOBA
0.278
0.292
0.308
0.323
0.337
wOBA
0.298
0.314
0.332
0.350
0.366
ISO
0.116
0.134
0.154
0.174
0.192
K%
25.0%
26.3%
27.8%
29.4%
30.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.7%
49
-23 vs proj
Exit velocity87.2
43
Hard-hit%36.8%
43
xBA0.314
44
xSLG0.518
56
xwOBA0.295
40
-30 vs proj
BB%10.7%
75
+50 vs proj
Bat speed68.7
38
K%29.5%
18
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · 1B
44
Arm Strength85.0 · 1B
31
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 1B
79
Range Runs0.3 · 1B
57
Baserunning · percentile strip
SB Success Rate77.8% · 1B
41
Sprint Speed28.2 · 1B
72
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.6% · rebadged research
71
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.0% · rebadged research
79
Correct Decisions71.5% · rebadged research
91
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
83
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.315 · borderline
12
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · insufficient sample
69
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.270 · validated thin sample
77
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.332 · insufficient sample
40
Resists FastballwOBA 0.315 · validated
88
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.376 · validated
14
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
156 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.025 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.011 |
| Sample | 319 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 398 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 13 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.321 | 0.272 to 0.382 | +/- 0.055 |
| ISO | 0.159 | 0.092 to 0.264 | +/- 0.086 |
| Barrel% | 6.3% | 3.5% to 9.1% | +/- 2.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.8% | 30.6% to 45.2% | +/- 7.3% |
| K% | 26.7% | 21.3% to 31.7% | +/- 5.2% |
| BB% | 6.2% | 4.5% to 9.5% | +/- 2.5% |
| BABIP | 0.319 | 0.234 to 0.388 | +/- 0.077 |
vs LHP
170 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.219 |
| K% | 19.7% |
| BB% | 5.5% |
| Barrel | 4.5% |
vs RHP
399 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.210 |
| K% | 19.5% |
| BB% | 3.9% |
| Barrel | 4.8% |