Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
2
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / BOS · 2026
Gasper, Mickey
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team BOS
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.267 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.311 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.277 |
| Observed weight | 23% |
xwOBA
0.208
0.241
0.277
0.313
0.346
wOBA
0.307
0.344
0.385
0.426
0.462
ISO
0.025
0.057
0.093
0.128
0.160
K%
14.8%
18.0%
21.4%
24.9%
28.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%4.7%
12
-33 vs proj
Barrel%4.7%
44
+20 vs proj
Bat speed68.9
39
Exit velocity89.8
67
Hard-hit%43.5%
65
+43 vs proj
K%21.9%
50
-15 vs proj
xBA0.357
79
xSLG0.533
58
xwOBA0.311
53
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.2 · C
Limited
Catcher Throwing-0.2 · C
Limited
Framing Runs-0.2 · C
Limited
Outs Above Avg-0.1 · C · small sample regression applied
60
Regression applied
Pop Time1.9 · C
Limited
Range Runs-0.0 · C
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.7 · DH
33
SB Success Rate0.0% · DH
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.0% · rebadged research
72
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.9% · rebadged research
72
Correct Decisions69.0% · rebadged research
78
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.292 · borderline
32
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · insufficient sample
87
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.282 · validated thin sample
33
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.317 · insufficient sample
87
Resists FastballwOBA 0.352 · validated
30
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.366 · validated
27
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
78
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
42 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.004 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.078 |
| Sample | 64 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 264 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.307 | 0.176 to 0.348 | +/- 0.086 |
| ISO | 0.114 | 0.035 to 0.208 | +/- 0.087 |
| Barrel% | 3.1% | 0.2% to 4.9% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 32.8% | 18.3% to 43.7% | +/- 12.7% |
| K% | 19.3% | 13.2% to 29.6% | +/- 8.2% |
| BB% | 8.7% | 3.7% to 12.8% | +/- 4.5% |
| BABIP | 0.288 | 0.156 to 0.336 | +/- 0.090 |
vs LHP
42 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.094 |
| K% | 7.7% |
| BB% | 4.7% |
| Barrel | 0.3% |
vs RHP
112 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.090 |
| K% | 7.8% |
| BB% | 4.0% |
| Barrel | 0.3% |