Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / MIN · 2026
Outman, James
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIN
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.308 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.201 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.278 |
| Observed weight | 29% |
xwOBA
0.225
0.250
0.278
0.305
0.330
wOBA
0.279
0.310
0.344
0.378
0.409
ISO
0.096
0.130
0.167
0.204
0.238
K%
29.1%
31.7%
34.6%
37.5%
40.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%6.8%
27
-36 vs proj
Barrel%2.3%
17
-43 vs proj
Bat speed68.7
36
Exit velocity86.6
27
Hard-hit%31.9%
19
-38 vs proj
K%36.4%
2
xBA0.269
11
xSLG0.356
7
xwOBA0.201
2
-55 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg1.0 · CF
80
Arm Runs0.0 · CF
Limited
Range Runs0.8 · CF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.8 · CF
69
Sprint Speed27.9 · CF
67
SB Success Rate75.0% · CF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.8% · rebadged research
28
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 17.5% · rebadged research
95
Correct Decisions68.1% · rebadged research
69
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.264 · borderline
89
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.286 · insufficient sample
23
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.255 · validated thin sample
94
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.345 · insufficient sample
21
Resists FastballwOBA 0.306 · validated
95
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.371 · validated
20
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
64
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
47 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.114 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.029 |
| Sample | 88 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 291 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.315 | 0.244 to 0.385 | +/- 0.070 |
| ISO | 0.168 | 0.091 to 0.285 | +/- 0.097 |
| Barrel% | 5.8% | 3.0% to 8.7% | +/- 2.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 41.6% | 31.5% to 51.4% | +/- 10.0% |
| K% | 34.6% | 28.0% to 42.6% | +/- 7.3% |
| BB% | 9.8% | 6.3% to 12.8% | +/- 3.2% |
| BABIP | 0.292 | 0.225 to 0.350 | +/- 0.063 |
vs LHP
229 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.206 |
| K% | 25.9% |
| BB% | 7.3% |
| Barrel | 2.6% |
vs RHP
730 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.231 |
| K% | 25.6% |
| BB% | 8.2% |
| Barrel | 4.5% |