Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / MIA · 2026
Hernández, Heriberto
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIA
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.320 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.343 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.328 |
| Observed weight | 35% |
xwOBA
0.290
0.308
0.328
0.348
0.366
wOBA
0.277
0.303
0.332
0.362
0.388
ISO
0.088
0.113
0.140
0.168
0.193
K%
20.3%
22.1%
24.1%
26.1%
27.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%12.0%
80
+36 vs proj
Barrel%4.3%
39
-21 vs proj
Bat speed72.7
87
Exit velocity90.5
78
Hard-hit%45.5%
74
K%21.4%
54
+20 vs proj
xBA0.343
68
xSLG0.561
64
xwOBA0.343
77
+15 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.4 · LF
39
Arm Strength95.1 · LF
73
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF
20
Range Runs-1.5 · LF
26
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.6 · LF
86
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.6% · rebadged research
81
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.6% · rebadged research
74
Correct Decisions70.6% · rebadged research
87
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.294 · borderline
28
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.292 · insufficient sample
14
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.289 · validated thin sample
20
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.306 · insufficient sample
96
Resists FastballwOBA 0.315 · validated
89
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.354 · validated
54
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
86
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
77 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.019 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.009 |
| Sample | 117 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 350 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 11 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.324 | 0.266 to 0.365 | +/- 0.050 |
| ISO | 0.170 | 0.105 to 0.262 | +/- 0.079 |
| Barrel% | 5.8% | 3.1% to 9.0% | +/- 2.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.7% | 32.3% to 52.0% | +/- 9.9% |
| K% | 25.3% | 18.6% to 29.1% | +/- 5.2% |
| BB% | 8.6% | 6.5% to 12.5% | +/- 3.0% |
| BABIP | 0.304 | 0.273 to 0.355 | +/- 0.041 |
vs LHP
126 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.191 |
| K% | 14.7% |
| BB% | 6.7% |
| Barrel | 4.1% |
vs RHP
178 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.184 |
| K% | 14.3% |
| BB% | 5.4% |
| Barrel | 3.5% |