Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / CIN · 2026
Marte, Noelvi
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team CIN
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 25
Status Out / inactive
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.305 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.160 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.278 |
| Observed weight | 19% |
xwOBA
0.235
0.255
0.278
0.301
0.321
wOBA
0.263
0.303
0.348
0.393
0.434
ISO
0.104
0.126
0.150
0.174
0.196
K%
20.6%
22.9%
25.5%
28.1%
30.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%3.9%
8
Barrel%2.0%
13
-43 vs proj
Bat speed69.4
45
Exit velocity88.1
45
Hard-hit%42.4%
61
+16 vs proj
K%31.4%
9
-31 vs proj
xBA0.203
0
xSLG0.228
0
xwOBA0.160
0
-46 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
45
Arm Runs-0.2 · RF
Limited
Range Runs0.3 · RF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts1.0 · RF
17
Sprint Speed28.9 · RF
91
SB Success Rate100.0% · RF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 50.0% · rebadged research
4
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.6% · rebadged research
20
Correct Decisions55.2% · rebadged research
3
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.282 · borderline
57
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.275 · insufficient sample
59
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278 · validated thin sample
42
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample
75
Resists FastballwOBA 0.331 · validated
68
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351 · validated
66
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline85
5
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
33 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.145 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.043 |
| Sample | 51 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 407 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 13 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.306 | 0.253 to 0.355 | +/- 0.051 |
| ISO | 0.142 | 0.089 to 0.199 | +/- 0.055 |
| Barrel% | 5.5% | 3.2% to 7.7% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 38.9% | 33.9% to 44.5% | +/- 5.3% |
| K% | 23.5% | 19.7% to 31.2% | +/- 5.7% |
| BB% | 5.4% | 3.6% to 8.2% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.309 | 0.254 to 0.352 | +/- 0.049 |
vs LHP
191 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.218 |
| K% | 18.9% |
| BB% | 4.8% |
| Barrel | 3.5% |
vs RHP
553 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.221 |
| K% | 18.1% |
| BB% | 3.1% |
| Barrel | 4.6% |