Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / CIN · 2026
Marte, Noelvi
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team CIN
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
33
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.305 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.265 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.288 |
| Observed weight | 42% |
xwOBA
0.253
0.270
0.288
0.307
0.323
wOBA
0.273
0.295
0.321
0.346
0.368
ISO
0.137
0.154
0.173
0.192
0.209
K%
21.1%
23.0%
25.0%
27.0%
28.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.5%
42
Exit velocity88.7
57
Hard-hit%34.6%
30
-19 vs proj
xBA0.284
16
xSLG0.477
37
xwOBA0.265
14
-34 vs proj
BB%5.7%
19
Bat speed70.2
58
K%26.1%
31
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.2 · RF
15
Arm Strength97.0 · RF
78
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · RF
11
Range Runs-2.7 · RF
19
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts2.0 · RF
33
Sprint Speed29.1 · RF
92
SB Success Rate100.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 55.2% · rebadged research
11
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.1% · rebadged research
70
Correct Decisions60.3% · rebadged research
10
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.292 · borderline
39
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.290 · insufficient sample
20
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.282 · validated thin sample
44
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.319 · insufficient sample
83
Resists FastballwOBA 0.321 · validated
82
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.345 · validated
84
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline93
16
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
53 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.041 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.015 |
| Sample | 157 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 407 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 13 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.306 | 0.253 to 0.355 | +/- 0.051 |
| ISO | 0.142 | 0.089 to 0.199 | +/- 0.055 |
| Barrel% | 5.5% | 3.2% to 7.7% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 38.9% | 33.9% to 44.5% | +/- 5.3% |
| K% | 23.5% | 19.7% to 31.2% | +/- 5.7% |
| BB% | 5.4% | 3.6% to 8.2% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.309 | 0.254 to 0.352 | +/- 0.049 |
vs LHP
191 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.218 |
| K% | 18.9% |
| BB% | 4.8% |
| Barrel | 3.5% |
vs RHP
553 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.221 |
| K% | 18.1% |
| BB% | 3.1% |
| Barrel | 4.6% |