Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / NYM · 2026
Alvarez, Francisco
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team NYM
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 25
Status IL-10
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.312 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.343 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.324 |
| Observed weight | 39% |
xwOBA
0.291
0.307
0.324
0.341
0.357
wOBA
0.307
0.332
0.359
0.386
0.411
ISO
0.120
0.139
0.160
0.181
0.199
K%
20.1%
22.1%
24.4%
26.6%
28.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%8.6%
44
Barrel%10.0%
93
+25 vs proj
Bat speed72.5
85
Exit velocity90.0
71
Hard-hit%40.4%
51
-22 vs proj
K%21.4%
52
+23 vs proj
xBA0.332
59
xSLG0.619
78
xwOBA0.343
77
+24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.7 · C
19
Catcher Throwing-0.3 · C
29
Framing Runs-1.1 · C
33
Pop Time2.0 · C
50
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.7 · C
15
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.6% · rebadged research
55
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.1% · rebadged research
50
Correct Decisions65.8% · rebadged research
46
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.275 · borderline
75
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.269 · insufficient sample
78
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.304 · validated thin sample
5
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.349 · insufficient sample
16
Resists FastballwOBA 0.342 · validated
46
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.352 · validated
63
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
54
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
93 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.031 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.047 |
| Sample | 140 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 380 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 15 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.312 | 0.283 to 0.367 | +/- 0.042 |
| ISO | 0.184 | 0.131 to 0.251 | +/- 0.060 |
| Barrel% | 6.4% | 4.1% to 9.2% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 45.3% | 40.7% to 55.2% | +/- 7.2% |
| K% | 26.0% | 20.3% to 33.0% | +/- 6.4% |
| BB% | 8.7% | 6.6% to 12.7% | +/- 3.1% |
| BABIP | 0.285 | 0.228 to 0.333 | +/- 0.052 |
vs LHP
319 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.263 |
| K% | 18.0% |
| BB% | 9.4% |
| Barrel | 6.7% |
vs RHP
823 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.242 |
| K% | 21.0% |
| BB% | 6.3% |
| Barrel | 4.6% |