Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.314 vs 0.261 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / DET · 2026
Greene, Riley
Impact bat with above-average thump
Team DET
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.352 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.361 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.357 |
| Observed weight | 55% |
xwOBA
0.329
0.342
0.357
0.371
0.384
wOBA
0.368
0.386
0.406
0.427
0.445
ISO
0.143
0.158
0.176
0.193
0.209
K%
24.6%
26.0%
27.5%
29.0%
30.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%11.1%
74
+29 vs proj
Barrel%7.0%
75
-16 vs proj
Bat speed73.8
93
Exit velocity90.7
80
Hard-hit%50.6%
92
K%28.0%
21
xBA0.393
94
xSLG0.685
90
xwOBA0.361
84
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.3 · LF
14
Arm Strength86.1 · LF
8
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF
20
Range Runs-1.2 · LF
34
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.6 · LF
65
Sprint Speed26.6 · LF
30
SB Success Rate50.0% · LF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.8% · rebadged research
76
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.1% · rebadged research
82
Correct Decisions70.2% · rebadged research
85
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
87
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.337 · borderline
1
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.274 · insufficient sample
60
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.264 · validated thin sample
82
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.328 · insufficient sample
62
Resists FastballwOBA 0.338 · validated
55
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.414 · validated
1
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
154 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.005 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.050 |
| Sample | 271 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 622 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 27 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.356 | 0.311 to 0.392 | +/- 0.041 |
| ISO | 0.213 | 0.167 to 0.300 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% | 9.5% | 6.1% to 11.2% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 47.3% | 40.5% to 52.7% | +/- 6.1% |
| K% | 26.7% | 23.0% to 32.5% | +/- 4.8% |
| BB% | 8.6% | 6.4% to 11.9% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.318 | 0.277 to 0.373 | +/- 0.048 |
vs LHP
604 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.261 |
| K% | 25.1% |
| BB% | 6.6% |
| Barrel | 5.8% |
vs RHP
1657 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.314 |
| K% | 24.1% |
| BB% | 7.9% |
| Barrel | 8.5% |