Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / NYY · 2026
Jones, Spencer
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team NYY
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
94
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.252 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.329 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.289 |
| Observed weight | 48% |
xwOBA
0.229
0.257
0.289
0.320
0.349
wOBA
0.307
0.327
0.349
0.372
0.392
ISO
0.104
0.131
0.160
0.190
0.216
K%
21.4%
24.4%
27.8%
31.2%
34.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.3%
95
+60 vs proj
Exit velocity94.3
99
Hard-hit%56.6%
99
+68 vs proj
xBA0.392
97
xSLG0.751
97
xwOBA0.329
76
+43 vs proj
BB%9.3%
60
Bat speed76.0
99
K%34.3%
6
-34 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.9 · RF
29
Arm Strength95.1 · RF
61
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
48
Range Runs-1.0 · RF
36
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts8.0 · RF
60
SB Success Rate75.0% · RF
33
Sprint Speed29.1 · RF
91
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 57.4% · rebadged research
15
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.1% · rebadged research
79
Correct Decisions63.5% · rebadged research
25
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.303 · borderline
24
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.261 · insufficient sample
89
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.269 · validated thin sample
76
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.342 · insufficient sample
21
Resists FastballwOBA 0.300 · validated
97
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.369 · validated
23
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
28
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
69 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.040 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.061 |
| Sample | 204 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 205 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.291 | 0.109 to 0.327 | +/- 0.109 |
| ISO | 0.138 | 0.004 to 0.209 | +/- 0.102 |
| Barrel% | 4.0% | 0.2% to 4.9% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 34.5% | 8.3% to 43.7% | +/- 17.7% |
| K% | 25.0% | 9.7% to 34.0% | +/- 12.2% |
| BB% | 8.1% | 1.1% to 11.3% | +/- 5.1% |
| BABIP | 0.308 | 0.120 to 0.367 | +/- 0.124 |
vs LHP
2 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 2.1% |
| BB% | 0.7% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
16 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 1.9% |
| BB% | 0.9% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |