Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 18 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / NYY · 2026

None

Young power bat with breakout ceiling

Primary
0.291 xwOBA
Range
0.109 to 0.323
Live Δ
yes
Team NYY Archetype Impact slugger Age 25 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-18
77
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
73
Defense1 metrics
44
Speed2 metrics
59
Plate skills10 metrics
48
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-18
xwOBA preseason0.252
xwOBA current pace0.287
xwOBA rolling p500.259
Observed weight21%
xwOBA
0.173 0.214 0.259 0.304 0.345
wOBA
0.341 0.380 0.424 0.468 0.507
ISO
0.064 0.102 0.146 0.189 0.228
K%
16.8% 21.5% 26.8% 32.0% 36.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-18
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.9%
74 +40 vs proj
Exit velocity97.7
100
Hard-hit%75.0%
100 +70 vs proj
xBA0.355
79
xSLG0.633
82
xwOBA0.287
29
BB%13.8%
92 +50 vs proj
Bat speed76.4
99
K%36.2%
2 -30 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
44
Arm Runs-0.1 · RF
Small sample
Range Runs0.2 · RF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts2.0 · RF
38
Sprint Speed28.4 · RF
81
SB Success Rate100.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-18
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.1% · rebadged research
17
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.6% · rebadged research
85
Correct Decisions66.4% · rebadged research
52
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.290 · borderline
39
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · insufficient sample
42
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273 · validated thin sample
63
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.331 · insufficient sample
54
Resists FastballwOBA 0.341 · validated
45
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360 · validated
45
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
36
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

4 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Jones, Spencer · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.312 0.287 2026-06-15: 0.2772026-06-16: 0.2712026-06-17: 0.2712026-06-18: 0.287 2026-06-15 2026-06-18 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

19 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Jones, Spencer · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 32% of plotted batted ballsPull 32%Center field third: 53% of plotted batted ballsCenter 53%Right field third: 16% of plotted batted ballsOppo 16% LF 318 CF 408 RF 314 2026-03-23 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 104.5 / LA 34.02026-03-23 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 107.6 / LA 29.02026-03-24 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 105.8 / LA 18.02026-03-24 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 80.2 / LA 51.02026-05-09 · field out · SV · fly_ball · EV 78.8 / LA 44.02026-05-10 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 106.4 / LA 12.02026-05-10 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 101.5 / LA -7.02026-05-10 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 73.9 / LA 40.02026-05-11 · field out · FF · popup · EV 105.1 / LA 63.02026-05-13 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 95.4 / LA -11.02026-05-15 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 89.9 / LA -23.02026-05-15 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 111.1 / LA 2.02026-05-15 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 97.0 / LA 17.02026-05-20 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 104.6 / LA 42.02026-05-21 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 105.7 / LA 11.02026-05-21 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 97.4 / LA 28.02026-06-05 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 95.5 / LA -4.02026-06-05 · double · FF · ground_ball · EV 88.7 / LA -8.02026-06-05 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.6 / LA -12.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Jones, Spencer · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 40%40%Chase: 34%34%Whiff: 33%33%Zone contact: 72%72%Contact: 67%67%Hard hit: 75%75% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
hitter
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.004
wOBA Δ+0.133
Sample58 PA
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances205----
Home Runs7----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.2910.109 to 0.323+/- 0.107
ISO0.1380.005 to 0.209+/- 0.102
Barrel%4.0%0.2% to 4.9%+/- 2.4%
Hard-Hit%34.9%8.3% to 43.7%+/- 17.7%
K%25.0%9.8% to 34.5%+/- 12.4%
BB%8.1%1.1% to 11.3%+/- 5.1%
BABIP0.3080.116 to 0.368+/- 0.126
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

2 career PA

xwOBA0.001
K%2.1%
BB%0.7%
Barrel0.0%
vs RHP

16 career PA

xwOBA0.001
K%1.9%
BB%0.9%
Barrel0.0%