Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / AZ · 2026

Carroll, Corbin

Young power bat with breakout ceiling

Primary
0.357 xwOBA
Range
0.300 to 0.394
Live Δ
yes
Team AZ Archetype Impact slugger Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.347
xwOBA current pace0.368
xwOBA rolling p500.358
Observed weight53%
xwOBA
0.328 0.343 0.358 0.374 0.389
wOBA
0.378 0.397 0.418 0.439 0.458
ISO
0.203 0.220 0.240 0.260 0.278
K%
19.7% 21.0% 22.5% 24.0% 25.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%12.7%
85
Barrel%8.4%
84
Bat speed73.9
94
Exit velocity91.7
89
Hard-hit%50.6%
92 +17 vs proj
K%23.5%
40 -19 vs proj
xBA0.364
83
xSLG0.656
87
xwOBA0.368
87
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-2.3 · RF
2
Arm Strength86.5 · RF
9
Outs Above Avg4.0 · RF
96
Range Runs3.5 · RF
90
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.1 · RF
98
Bolts19.0 · RF
88
SB Success Rate85.7% · RF
66
Sprint Speed29.6 · RF
96
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.0% · rebadged research
63
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.0% · rebadged research
71
Correct Decisions66.9% · rebadged research
56
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
72
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.324 · borderline
4
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.287 · insufficient sample
23
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279 · validated thin sample
41
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.318 · insufficient sample
84
Resists FastballwOBA 0.401 · validated
2
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.398 · validated
3
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Carroll, Corbin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.3662026-05-19: 0.3802026-05-21: 0.3842026-05-23: 0.3802026-05-24: 0.3752026-05-25: 0.3792026-05-26: 0.3802026-05-28: 0.3782026-05-29: 0.3772026-05-30: 0.3772026-05-31: 0.3752026-06-01: 0.368 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Corbin Carroll's tools (85) outpace production (78) by 7 points. Primary finding: groundball-heavy approach with the raw power to drive the ball — leaving fly-ball damage on the table. Also flagged: Power Efficiency Gap. Most actionable fix: elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range.

See full optimization →

Launch Angle Too Low
+12.2° Current 4° → Target 16°

Elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

150 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Carroll, Corbin · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 10% of plotted batted ballsPull 10%Center field third: 66% of plotted batted ballsCenter 66%Right field third: 24% of plotted batted ballsOppo 24% LF 330 CF 400 RF 330 2026-03-15 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 87.6 / LA 25.02026-03-18 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 97.1 / LA -46.02026-03-18 · field error · FF · line_drive · EV 106.6 / LA 18.02026-03-18 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 105.5 / LA 31.02026-03-23 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 104.9 / LA 6.02026-03-23 · field out · FC · popup · EV 96.6 / LA 63.02026-03-24 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 98.6 / LA -14.02026-03-26 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 86.1 / LA 38.02026-03-26 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 92.9 / LA 12.02026-03-26 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 94.5 / LA -23.02026-03-26 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 87.4 / LA 52.02026-03-27 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.5 / LA -4.02026-03-27 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 66.1 / LA -34.02026-03-28 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.6 / LA 1.02026-03-28 · sac fly · FF · fly_ball · EV 84.7 / LA 41.02026-03-28 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 88.8 / LA -12.02026-03-28 · force out · ST · ground_ball · EV 77.6 / LA -34.02026-03-30 · triple · FF · fly_ball · EV 107.4 / LA 22.02026-03-30 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 107.8 / LA 37.02026-03-30 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 82.5 / LA 27.02026-03-31 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 108.9 / LA 20.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 81.2 / LA 14.02026-04-01 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.8 / LA 23.02026-04-01 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 96.9 / LA -29.02026-04-01 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 109.5 / LA 5.02026-04-02 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 80.1 / LA -37.02026-04-03 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 102.0 / LA 52.02026-04-04 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 86.9 / LA -16.02026-04-05 · triple · SL · line_drive · EV 106.8 / LA 11.02026-04-05 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 66.9 / LA -48.02026-04-05 · single · SI · fly_ball · EV 71.6 / LA 27.02026-04-05 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 97.7 / LA 10.02026-04-07 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 91.1 / LA 36.02026-04-07 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.6 / LA -1.02026-04-07 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 75.7 / LA 2.02026-04-08 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 108.6 / LA 21.02026-04-08 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 86.7 / LA 21.02026-04-08 · triple · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.6 / LA -11.02026-04-08 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 100.3 / LA 15.02026-04-08 · double · CU · line_drive · EV 103.8 / LA 12.02026-04-11 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 100.7 / LA 36.02026-04-12 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 97.8 / LA 11.02026-04-12 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 86.4 / LA -6.02026-04-12 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 95.3 / LA 19.02026-04-13 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 87.3 / LA 16.02026-04-13 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 78.8 / LA 3.02026-04-14 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 85.8 / LA -16.02026-04-14 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 90.9 / LA -52.02026-04-15 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 86.2 / LA -43.02026-04-15 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 84.9 / LA 28.02026-04-15 · double · SL · fly_ball · EV 96.8 / LA 29.02026-04-17 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 85.5 / LA 45.02026-04-17 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 101.5 / LA 14.02026-04-18 · field out · SL · popup · EV 59.1 / LA 59.02026-04-18 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.3 / LA 33.02026-04-18 · field out · CU · popup · EV 82.4 / LA 83.02026-04-19 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 75.9 / LA 8.02026-04-22 · triple · SI · fly_ball · EV 107.0 / LA 33.02026-04-22 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 84.7 / LA -37.02026-04-22 · field out · SI · popup · EV 68.5 / LA 62.02026-04-22 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 86.2 / LA 12.02026-04-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.2 / LA 34.02026-04-23 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 76.6 / LA -42.02026-04-23 · grounded into double play · CU · ground_ball · EV 92.7 / LA 2.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 73.1 / LA -50.02026-04-25 · field out · KC · fly_ball · EV 100.9 / LA 56.02026-04-26 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 88.7 / LA -19.02026-04-26 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 73.1 / LA -14.02026-04-28 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 79.4 / LA -38.02026-04-29 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 106.4 / LA 29.02026-04-29 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 70.1 / LA -60.02026-04-30 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 102.5 / LA 22.02026-04-30 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 73.0 / LA 11.02026-04-30 · field out · FC · popup · EV 99.4 / LA 64.02026-05-01 · force out · FS · ground_ball · EV 96.1 / LA -8.02026-05-01 · fielders choice · FC · ground_ball · EV 103.7 / LA -4.02026-05-02 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 97.5 / LA 5.02026-05-02 · field out · ST · popup · EV 84.4 / LA 73.02026-05-02 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 68.0 / LA -9.02026-05-02 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.7 / LA -7.02026-05-03 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 69.5 / LA -22.02026-05-03 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 103.7 / LA -9.02026-05-05 · field out · CH · popup · EV 84.3 / LA 81.02026-05-05 · sac fly · ST · fly_ball · EV 92.4 / LA 52.02026-05-05 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 83.5 / LA 41.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.3 / LA -12.02026-05-06 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 96.1 / LA 20.02026-05-06 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 90.9 / LA 19.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.3 / LA 44.02026-05-07 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.0 / LA 27.02026-05-07 · field out · FF · popup · EV 78.1 / LA 81.02026-05-07 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 84.5 / LA 14.02026-05-07 · field out · ST · popup · EV 55.5 / LA 49.02026-05-08 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 98.3 / LA 46.02026-05-08 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 96.6 / LA 46.02026-05-08 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 82.5 / LA 25.02026-05-09 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 106.7 / LA 2.02026-05-09 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.4 / LA -22.02026-05-09 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 87.7 / LA 0.02026-05-09 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 100.3 / LA 24.02026-05-10 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 102.1 / LA -6.02026-05-10 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 68.7 / LA -44.02026-05-11 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 84.1 / LA 22.02026-05-11 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 93.3 / LA 32.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.0 / LA 40.02026-05-12 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 99.7 / LA 58.02026-05-12 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 89.7 / LA -5.02026-05-13 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 97.9 / LA 42.02026-05-13 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 96.9 / LA 8.02026-05-15 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 70.1 / LA 41.02026-05-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 85.5 / LA 55.02026-05-15 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 86.8 / LA -17.02026-05-15 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 105.5 / LA 9.02026-05-15 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 109.1 / LA 9.02026-05-16 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 107.2 / LA 21.02026-05-16 · double play · ST · line_drive · EV 78.9 / LA 14.02026-05-17 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 111.8 / LA 24.02026-05-17 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.6 / LA 29.02026-05-18 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 97.0 / LA 17.02026-05-18 · triple · CH · fly_ball · EV 101.2 / LA 34.02026-05-18 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 96.5 / LA 50.02026-05-18 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 99.5 / LA 34.02026-05-19 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 66.9 / LA -53.02026-05-19 · triple · SI · line_drive · EV 111.5 / LA 16.02026-05-21 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 105.8 / LA 0.02026-05-21 · field out · FS · line_drive · EV 95.2 / LA 21.02026-05-21 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 71.1 / LA -20.02026-05-22 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 105.3 / LA 38.02026-05-22 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 107.0 / LA -5.02026-05-22 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 89.6 / LA -21.02026-05-23 · double · CU · line_drive · EV 111.5 / LA 13.02026-05-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.7 / LA 41.02026-05-23 · field out · FF · popup · EV 80.5 / LA 82.02026-05-24 · triple · FF · line_drive · EV 105.0 / LA 10.02026-05-24 · triple · CU · ground_ball · EV 108.9 / LA 4.02026-05-24 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.3 / LA -4.02026-05-24 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.8 / LA 5.02026-05-25 · field out · CH · popup · EV 85.8 / LA 67.02026-05-25 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 91.3 / LA 15.02026-05-25 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 100.4 / LA 22.02026-05-25 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 97.6 / LA 11.02026-05-25 · field out · CH · popup · EV 86.6 / LA 71.02026-05-26 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 6.02026-05-26 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 52.5 / LA -67.02026-05-27 · field error · SL · ground_ball · EV 61.7 / LA -56.02026-05-27 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.2 / LA -12.02026-05-27 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 85.5 / LA 50.02026-05-31 · double · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.6 / LA -33.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.0 / LA -6.02026-05-31 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 94.7 / LA 29.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics SWING PATH Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Swing Path Carroll, Corbin · aggregate bat-tracking arc Swing tilt 27.0° Length 7.6 ft Ideal path 65% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics ATTACK ANGLE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Attack Angle Carroll, Corbin · aggregate attack vector Attack angle 11.9° Direction +1.4° MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Carroll, Corbin · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 75.3 mph Hard swing rate 56% Whiff / swing 33% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Carroll, Corbin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 44%44%Chase: 31%31%Whiff: 28%28%Zone contact: 81%81%Contact: 72%72%Hard hit: 51%51% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.011
wOBA Δ+0.061
Sample251 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances605----
Home Runs23----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3570.300 to 0.394+/- 0.047
ISO0.2230.168 to 0.307+/- 0.069
Barrel%7.3%4.6% to 9.2%+/- 2.3%
Hard-Hit%45.9%37.8% to 51.8%+/- 7.0%
K%20.5%16.6% to 25.8%+/- 4.6%
BB%10.8%8.6% to 13.4%+/- 2.4%
BABIP0.2930.263 to 0.344+/- 0.041
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

673 career PA

xwOBA0.288
K%17.2%
BB%7.4%
Barrel5.1%
vs RHP

1591 career PA

xwOBA0.310
K%17.8%
BB%10.1%
Barrel5.8%