Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / BAL · 2026

Henderson, Gunnar

Impact bat with above-average thump

Primary
0.369 xwOBA
Range
0.308 to 0.415
Live Δ
yes
Team BAL Archetype Balanced regular Age 25 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.367
xwOBA current pace0.305
xwOBA rolling p500.332
Observed weight57%
xwOBA
0.302 0.316 0.332 0.348 0.363
wOBA
0.309 0.326 0.345 0.364 0.381
ISO
0.176 0.195 0.216 0.237 0.255
K%
21.1% 22.4% 23.9% 25.4% 26.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%6.6%
25 -39 vs proj
Barrel%6.6%
70
Bat speed72.8
87
Exit velocity89.5
62
Hard-hit%45.3%
73 -22 vs proj
K%25.9%
31 -28 vs proj
xBA0.333
60
xSLG0.573
68
xwOBA0.305
46 -42 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · SS
54
Arm Strength93.9 · SS
91
Outs Above Avg1.0 · SS
71
Range Runs1.3 · SS
67
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.3 · SS
86
Bolts1.0 · SS
17
SB Success Rate83.3% · SS
60
Sprint Speed28.3 · SS
78
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.1% · rebadged research
33
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.1% · rebadged research
23
Correct Decisions64.1% · rebadged research
31
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
21
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.298 · borderline
24
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.297 · insufficient sample
10
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.299 · validated thin sample
8
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · insufficient sample
27
Resists FastballwOBA 0.308 · validated
94
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358 · validated
44
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Henderson, Gunnar · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.2892026-05-19: 0.2972026-05-21: 0.2942026-05-23: 0.2992026-05-24: 0.2992026-05-25: 0.2942026-05-26: 0.2942026-05-28: 0.2992026-05-29: 0.2992026-05-30: 0.2972026-05-31: 0.3002026-06-01: 0.305 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Gunnar Henderson's tools (90) outpace production (79) by 11 points. Primary finding: excellent plate discipline but too passive on hittable pitches — letting strikes go by.

See full optimization →

Passive In-Zone Approach
Pass Attack Pass Attack Attack Attack Pass Attack Pass

Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts

Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

179 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Henderson, Gunnar · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 11% of plotted batted ballsPull 11%Center field third: 67% of plotted batted ballsCenter 67%Right field third: 22% of plotted batted ballsOppo 22% LF 333 CF 400 RF 318 2026-03-19 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 95.2 / LA -21.02026-03-19 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 81.5 / LA 27.02026-03-19 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 107.8 / LA 1.02026-03-21 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 66.9 / LA -54.02026-03-21 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 90.9 / LA 0.02026-03-21 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 98.1 / LA 17.02026-03-22 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 104.3 / LA 24.02026-03-23 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 97.6 / LA -4.02026-03-23 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 81.3 / LA 32.02026-03-23 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 95.7 / LA 29.02026-03-26 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 79.9 / LA 5.02026-03-26 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 73.3 / LA -22.02026-03-28 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 81.8 / LA 32.02026-03-29 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 80.6 / LA -17.02026-03-29 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 68.3 / LA 26.02026-03-29 · field out · SL · popup · EV 80.3 / LA 85.02026-03-30 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 105.3 / LA 34.02026-03-30 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 97.0 / LA 30.02026-03-30 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 93.0 / LA 8.02026-03-31 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 91.0 / LA -20.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.1 / LA -15.02026-03-31 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 101.0 / LA 21.02026-03-31 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 53.8 / LA 17.02026-04-01 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 98.6 / LA 28.02026-04-01 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 78.5 / LA 37.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.1 / LA 56.02026-04-03 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 105.7 / LA 17.02026-04-03 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 93.6 / LA 13.02026-04-03 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 98.2 / LA 9.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 83.4 / LA 38.02026-04-03 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 101.0 / LA 31.02026-04-04 · field out · FS · popup · EV 77.6 / LA 53.02026-04-04 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 104.9 / LA 12.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.7 / LA 31.02026-04-05 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 59.9 / LA -42.02026-04-05 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 95.3 / LA -3.02026-04-06 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 105.3 / LA 30.02026-04-07 · home run · SI · line_drive · EV 105.0 / LA 21.02026-04-07 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 66.1 / LA 11.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.6 / LA -14.02026-04-08 · field out · KC · popup · EV 81.5 / LA 73.02026-04-08 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 97.8 / LA 7.02026-04-10 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.7 / LA 35.02026-04-10 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 89.3 / LA 53.02026-04-10 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 92.6 / LA -9.02026-04-10 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.1 / LA -23.02026-04-11 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.6 / LA 3.02026-04-11 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 96.1 / LA 35.02026-04-12 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 107.1 / LA 7.02026-04-12 · field error · CH · ground_ball · EV 87.6 / LA 3.02026-04-12 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 97.7 / LA 9.02026-04-12 · field out · SL · popup · EV 81.9 / LA 85.02026-04-13 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 98.9 / LA 21.02026-04-13 · triple · FF · line_drive · EV 103.2 / LA 14.02026-04-13 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.8 / LA -11.02026-04-13 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.7 / LA 56.02026-04-14 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 94.3 / LA -4.02026-04-14 · field out · ST · popup · EV 63.2 / LA 70.02026-04-14 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 91.3 / LA -8.02026-04-15 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.6 / LA -7.02026-04-15 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.6 / LA 6.02026-04-15 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 89.9 / LA 19.02026-04-15 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 105.0 / LA -12.02026-04-16 · sac fly · FS · fly_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 38.02026-04-16 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.3 / LA -3.02026-04-16 · field out · CU · popup · EV 66.5 / LA 84.02026-04-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.5 / LA 34.02026-04-17 · field out · FC · popup · EV 67.7 / LA 43.02026-04-17 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 103.6 / LA 13.02026-04-18 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 99.5 / LA -7.02026-04-18 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 102.5 / LA 40.02026-04-19 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 74.1 / LA -1.02026-04-19 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 95.0 / LA 18.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.8 / LA 42.02026-04-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.3 / LA 4.02026-04-21 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 82.3 / LA 25.02026-04-21 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 66.2 / LA -53.02026-04-21 · double · SI · ground_ball · EV 69.2 / LA 10.02026-04-21 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 72.2 / LA 8.02026-04-22 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 87.3 / LA 30.02026-04-22 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 71.1 / LA 1.02026-04-24 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 109.1 / LA 36.02026-04-24 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 111.2 / LA 14.02026-04-24 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 92.4 / LA 59.02026-04-24 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 105.2 / LA 12.02026-04-25 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 57.0 / LA -51.02026-04-26 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 94.1 / LA 13.02026-04-26 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 105.3 / LA 25.02026-04-26 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 75.2 / LA -29.02026-04-28 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 107.1 / LA 13.02026-04-28 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 92.2 / LA 51.02026-04-28 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 99.3 / LA 20.02026-04-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.1 / LA 46.02026-04-30 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 77.2 / LA 29.02026-04-30 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 45.4 / LA 17.02026-04-30 · field out · CH · popup · EV 91.1 / LA 73.02026-04-30 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 57.0 / LA -45.02026-04-30 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 94.3 / LA 21.02026-05-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 74.1 / LA -9.02026-05-01 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 91.8 / LA -4.02026-05-02 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 89.9 / LA 13.02026-05-02 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.5 / LA -19.02026-05-04 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.4 / LA -17.02026-05-04 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.5 / LA 5.02026-05-04 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 91.3 / LA 40.02026-05-04 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 87.0 / LA 29.02026-05-05 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 92.7 / LA 36.02026-05-05 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 95.9 / LA 21.02026-05-05 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 101.8 / LA 6.02026-05-05 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 73.0 / LA 42.02026-05-06 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 81.8 / LA -25.02026-05-06 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 88.4 / LA 50.02026-05-07 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 89.6 / LA 27.02026-05-07 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 88.7 / LA 1.02026-05-07 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 97.9 / LA 26.02026-05-07 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 75.4 / LA -44.02026-05-08 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 77.5 / LA -19.02026-05-08 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 95.5 / LA 34.02026-05-08 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 91.8 / LA -35.02026-05-09 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 63.8 / LA -3.02026-05-09 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 101.7 / LA 7.02026-05-09 · double · CU · line_drive · EV 83.1 / LA 19.02026-05-09 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.9 / LA -11.02026-05-10 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 86.4 / LA -18.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 100.1 / LA 6.02026-05-10 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.1 / LA -7.02026-05-11 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 97.1 / LA 21.02026-05-11 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 92.1 / LA -24.02026-05-11 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 88.1 / LA -23.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.2 / LA 42.02026-05-12 · fielders choice · SI · ground_ball · EV 91.2 / LA 4.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.6 / LA 34.02026-05-12 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 94.6 / LA 2.02026-05-13 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 80.0 / LA 6.02026-05-13 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 71.6 / LA -51.02026-05-13 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 97.1 / LA 36.02026-05-13 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 83.3 / LA -18.02026-05-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.1 / LA 41.02026-05-15 · double · FS · line_drive · EV 111.9 / LA 22.02026-05-15 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.1 / LA 4.02026-05-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.5 / LA 56.02026-05-16 · field out · KC · fly_ball · EV 80.9 / LA 46.02026-05-16 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 72.0 / LA 7.02026-05-17 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.3 / LA 0.02026-05-17 · double · CH · ground_ball · EV 105.6 / LA 0.02026-05-17 · field out · SL · popup · EV 71.7 / LA 49.02026-05-17 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 100.3 / LA 0.02026-05-17 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 106.7 / LA 32.02026-05-18 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 68.8 / LA -21.02026-05-18 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 82.5 / LA 31.02026-05-19 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 106.7 / LA 7.02026-05-19 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.3 / LA 26.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 74.9 / LA 3.02026-05-20 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 90.6 / LA 11.02026-05-20 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 85.3 / LA 7.02026-05-20 · field out · SL · popup · EV 71.1 / LA 61.02026-05-20 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 78.8 / LA 23.02026-05-22 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 110.0 / LA 18.02026-05-22 · fielders choice · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.8 / LA 1.02026-05-22 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 73.0 / LA -35.02026-05-22 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 98.5 / LA 15.02026-05-24 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 100.8 / LA 38.02026-05-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 83.9 / LA 37.02026-05-24 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 83.6 / LA 51.02026-05-25 · fielders choice · SL · ground_ball · EV 97.7 / LA 4.02026-05-25 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 98.2 / LA -13.02026-05-25 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 49.4 / LA -65.02026-05-25 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.4 / LA -17.02026-05-26 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 49.1 / LA -58.02026-05-26 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 93.2 / LA 34.02026-05-26 · fielders choice · FS · ground_ball · EV 75.8 / LA -13.02026-05-26 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 103.4 / LA -12.02026-05-27 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 102.2 / LA 37.02026-05-27 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 49.2 / LA -69.02026-05-27 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 109.9 / LA 25.02026-05-31 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 105.0 / LA -5.02026-05-31 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 102.8 / LA 21.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · popup · EV 85.0 / LA 62.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 72.6 / LA -8.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics SWING PATH Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Swing Path Henderson, Gunnar · aggregate bat-tracking arc Swing tilt 30.7° Length 7.5 ft Ideal path 51% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics ATTACK ANGLE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Attack Angle Henderson, Gunnar · aggregate attack vector Attack angle 13.9° Direction -4.4° MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Henderson, Gunnar · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 74.4 mph Hard swing rate 45% Whiff / swing 26% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Henderson, Gunnar · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 49%49%Chase: 34%34%Whiff: 22%22%Zone contact: 89%89%Contact: 78%78%Hard hit: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.334 vs 0.274 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
3
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.064
wOBA Δ-0.024
Sample286 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances600----
Home Runs24----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3690.308 to 0.415+/- 0.053
ISO0.2070.141 to 0.304+/- 0.081
Barrel%7.7%4.7% to 10.0%+/- 2.6%
Hard-Hit%52.3%44.9% to 58.9%+/- 7.0%
K%20.5%17.8% to 27.4%+/- 4.8%
BB%10.0%7.8% to 13.0%+/- 2.6%
BABIP0.3170.271 to 0.373+/- 0.051
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

647 career PA

xwOBA0.274
K%21.4%
BB%8.9%
Barrel4.5%
vs RHP

1548 career PA

xwOBA0.334
K%18.6%
BB%9.3%
Barrel7.2%