Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / MIA · 2026

Caissie, Owen

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.283 xwOBA
Range
0.111 to 0.261
Live Δ
yes
Team MIA Archetype Balanced regular Age 24 Status IL-10
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
83
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
70
Defense4 metrics
14
Speed2 metrics
67
Plate skills10 metrics
50
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
xwOBA preseason0.249
xwOBA current pace0.309
xwOBA rolling p500.281
Observed weight54%
xwOBA
0.241 0.260 0.281 0.302 0.321
wOBA
0.302 0.320 0.340 0.360 0.378
ISO
0.119 0.143 0.170 0.197 0.221
K%
27.9% 30.8% 34.0% 37.2% 40.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.2%
87 +39 vs proj
Exit velocity90.8
83
Hard-hit%48.5%
87 +69 vs proj
xBA0.385
94
xSLG0.766
97
xwOBA0.309
52 +27 vs proj
BB%8.2%
46
Bat speed72.4
82
K%38.8%
1 -24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.6 · RF
11
Arm Strength92.2 · RF
45
Outs Above Avg-8.0 · RF
0
Range Runs-7.3 · RF
1
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.6 · RF
60
Sprint Speed28.2 · RF
73
SB Success Rate75.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-18
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.8% · rebadged research
61
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.7% · rebadged research
26
Correct Decisions66.1% · rebadged research
50
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.262 · borderline
93
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · insufficient sample
78
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.308 · validated thin sample
7
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.348 · insufficient sample
17
Resists FastballwOBA 0.337 · validated
54
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.355 · validated
64
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
48
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Caissie, Owen · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.309 2026-07-07: 0.3002026-07-08: 0.3002026-07-09: 0.3092026-07-10: 0.3092026-07-11: 0.3092026-07-12: 0.3092026-07-13: 0.3092026-07-14: 0.3092026-07-15: 0.3092026-07-16: 0.3092026-07-17: 0.3092026-07-18: 0.309 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Owen Caissie's tools (85) outpace production (82) by 3 points. Primary finding: excessive fly-ball angle — producing popups instead of line drives. Also flagged: Passive In-Zone Approach.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High
-15.5° Current 36° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.
Passive In-Zone Approach
Pass Attack Pass Attack Attack Attack Pass Attack Pass

Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts

Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

90 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Caissie, Owen · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 14% of plotted batted ballsPull 14%Center field third: 69% of plotted batted ballsCenter 69%Right field third: 17% of plotted batted ballsOppo 17% LF 344 CF 400 RF 335 2026-03-20 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 80.4 / LA 13.02026-03-20 · field out · SV · line_drive · EV 98.8 / LA 8.02026-03-22 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 98.6 / LA 17.02026-03-27 · double · KC · line_drive · EV 104.1 / LA 17.02026-03-27 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 94.1 / LA -6.02026-03-28 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 94.5 / LA 3.02026-03-28 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 111.1 / LA 13.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 74.5 / LA 41.02026-03-28 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 111.7 / LA 17.02026-03-29 · home run · CH · line_drive · EV 107.9 / LA 21.02026-03-29 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 53.5 / LA 5.02026-03-30 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 32.02026-03-30 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 94.0 / LA 51.02026-03-31 · sac fly · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.5 / LA 52.02026-03-31 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 74.6 / LA 20.02026-04-01 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 78.9 / LA 7.02026-04-01 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 80.6 / LA 29.02026-04-01 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 81.9 / LA 12.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · popup · EV 85.2 / LA 66.02026-04-03 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.2 / LA 24.02026-04-08 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 85.2 / LA -1.02026-04-08 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 79.7 / LA 52.02026-04-09 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 112.6 / LA 19.02026-04-09 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 86.4 / LA 10.02026-04-09 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.6 / LA 32.02026-04-11 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 95.0 / LA 25.02026-04-11 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 96.0 / LA 33.02026-04-13 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 107.0 / LA 2.02026-04-13 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.2 / LA 32.02026-04-13 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.4 / LA -4.02026-04-15 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 109.1 / LA 14.02026-04-17 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 80.1 / LA 9.02026-04-17 · sac fly · FC · line_drive · EV 107.7 / LA 13.02026-04-18 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 95.4 / LA 14.02026-04-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.7 / LA 37.02026-04-19 · double · CU · ground_ball · EV 98.0 / LA -1.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 77.7 / LA 13.02026-04-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 107.1 / LA 0.02026-04-20 · field out · FC · popup · EV 59.9 / LA 50.02026-04-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 38.3 / LA -48.02026-04-22 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 80.9 / LA -2.02026-04-22 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.6 / LA 3.02026-04-24 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 78.8 / LA -2.02026-04-24 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 94.6 / LA 21.02026-04-25 · field error · SL · ground_ball · EV 52.1 / LA -84.02026-04-26 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 85.0 / LA 27.02026-04-26 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 92.5 / LA 2.02026-04-27 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 99.5 / LA -26.02026-04-28 · sac fly · SL · fly_ball · EV 78.1 / LA 29.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 67.7 / LA -47.02026-04-28 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 106.4 / LA 4.02026-04-29 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 103.4 / LA 17.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 82.4 / LA 30.02026-05-01 · force out · FC · ground_ball · EV 57.1 / LA 10.02026-05-03 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 108.4 / LA 5.02026-05-04 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 85.1 / LA -25.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.7 / LA -16.02026-05-06 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 106.8 / LA 15.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 88.3 / LA 26.02026-05-09 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 94.4 / LA 5.02026-05-09 · sac fly · SL · fly_ball · EV 91.0 / LA 32.02026-05-13 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.2 / LA 55.02026-05-13 · home run · FS · fly_ball · EV 104.2 / LA 30.02026-05-14 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 76.2 / LA 10.02026-05-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.0 / LA 30.02026-05-16 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 107.3 / LA 20.02026-05-17 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 96.9 / LA 27.02026-05-17 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 81.0 / LA 2.02026-05-18 · single · FA · line_drive · EV 101.5 / LA 13.02026-05-18 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 94.3 / LA 18.02026-05-21 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.6 / LA 39.02026-05-22 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 88.1 / LA 8.02026-05-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 73.2 / LA -23.02026-05-23 · double · CH · ground_ball · EV 75.9 / LA 0.02026-05-25 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 101.7 / LA 20.02026-05-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.0 / LA 52.02026-05-25 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 76.8 / LA 9.02026-05-27 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 96.0 / LA -6.02026-05-31 · double · FC · fly_ball · EV 84.7 / LA 31.02026-05-31 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 104.3 / LA 9.02026-06-07 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 103.7 / LA 25.02026-06-20 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 75.1 / LA 18.02026-06-20 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 85.3 / LA 47.02026-06-22 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 101.5 / LA 6.02026-06-24 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 105.1 / LA 13.02026-06-26 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 97.8 / LA 55.02026-06-26 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 89.9 / LA 10.02026-06-30 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 109.2 / LA 28.02026-06-30 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 98.7 / LA 67.02026-07-01 · single · KC · line_drive · EV 88.2 / LA 10.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Caissie, Owen · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 75.4 mph Hard swing rate 57% Whiff / swing 34% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Caissie, Owen · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 46%46%Chase: 30%30%Whiff: 34%34%Zone contact: 79%79%Contact: 66%66%Hard hit: 48%48% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.026
wOBA Δ+0.058
Sample255 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances215----
Home Runs7----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.2830.111 to 0.261+/- 0.075
ISO0.1390.027 to 0.234+/- 0.103
Barrel%5.0%0.2% to 6.2%+/- 3.0%
Hard-Hit%31.0%9.7% to 40.1%+/- 15.2%
K%27.2%12.3% to 37.0%+/- 12.4%
BB%7.1%1.5% to 10.4%+/- 4.5%
BABIP0.2750.151 to 0.338+/- 0.093
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

6 career PA

xwOBA0.022
K%5.8%
BB%0.6%
Barrel0.6%
vs RHP

47 career PA

xwOBA0.024
K%5.4%
BB%0.7%
Barrel0.8%