Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / MIA · 2026
Caissie, Owen
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIA
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 24
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.249 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.280 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.262 |
| Observed weight | 43% |
xwOBA
0.216
0.238
0.262
0.287
0.309
wOBA
0.276
0.298
0.322
0.346
0.368
ISO
0.076
0.104
0.136
0.168
0.197
K%
26.5%
30.0%
33.8%
37.7%
41.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%7.7%
37
Barrel%5.9%
62
Bat speed72.4
84
Exit velocity91.0
84
Hard-hit%47.1%
81
+64 vs proj
K%40.8%
0
-24 vs proj
xBA0.377
89
xSLG0.679
90
xwOBA0.280
23
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-2.6 · RF
1
Arm Strength92.2 · RF
51
Outs Above Avg-4.0 · RF
1
Range Runs-4.1 · RF
1
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · RF
80
Sprint Speed28.3 · RF
78
SB Success Rate100.0% · RF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.0% · rebadged research
57
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.7% · rebadged research
25
Correct Decisions65.4% · rebadged research
43
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.258 · borderline
93
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · insufficient sample
72
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.307 · validated thin sample
4
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.351 · insufficient sample
13
Resists FastballwOBA 0.332 · validated
66
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.347 · validated
75
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
44
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
80 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.003 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.040 |
| Sample | 169 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 215 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.283 | 0.111 to 0.261 | +/- 0.075 |
| ISO | 0.139 | 0.027 to 0.234 | +/- 0.103 |
| Barrel% | 5.0% | 0.2% to 6.2% | +/- 3.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 31.0% | 9.7% to 40.1% | +/- 15.2% |
| K% | 27.2% | 12.3% to 37.0% | +/- 12.4% |
| BB% | 7.1% | 1.5% to 10.4% | +/- 4.5% |
| BABIP | 0.275 | 0.151 to 0.338 | +/- 0.093 |
vs LHP
6 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.022 |
| K% | 5.8% |
| BB% | 0.6% |
| Barrel | 0.6% |
vs RHP
47 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.024 |
| K% | 5.4% |
| BB% | 0.7% |
| Barrel | 0.8% |