Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / MIL · 2026
Vaughn, Andrew
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
63
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.321 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.338 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.331 |
| Observed weight | 59% |
xwOBA
0.307
0.319
0.331
0.344
0.356
wOBA
0.377
0.394
0.412
0.431
0.448
ISO
0.120
0.132
0.146
0.160
0.172
K%
15.5%
16.6%
17.8%
19.1%
20.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.1%
39
-30 vs proj
Exit velocity90.2
79
Hard-hit%43.9%
77
xBA0.329
63
xSLG0.471
38
xwOBA0.338
84
BB%10.5%
74
+44 vs proj
Bat speed68.5
35
K%15.6%
87
+22 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength90.8 · 1B
77
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · 1B
8
Range Runs-3.8 · 1B
18
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.8 · 1B
14
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.5% · rebadged research
89
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.3% · rebadged research
39
Correct Decisions67.7% · rebadged research
67
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.265 · borderline
91
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · insufficient sample
68
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.300 · validated thin sample
12
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.346 · insufficient sample
16
Resists FastballwOBA 0.421 · validated
0
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.386 · validated
7
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
83
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
127 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.014 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.088 |
| Sample | 314 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 513 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 16 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.324 | 0.299 to 0.364 | +/- 0.033 |
| ISO | 0.154 | 0.120 to 0.226 | +/- 0.053 |
| Barrel% | 6.1% | 4.9% to 8.9% | +/- 2.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 44.8% | 40.7% to 51.8% | +/- 5.5% |
| K% | 20.3% | 16.5% to 25.2% | +/- 4.3% |
| BB% | 6.7% | 5.2% to 9.6% | +/- 2.2% |
| BABIP | 0.283 | 0.242 to 0.329 | +/- 0.043 |
vs LHP
741 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.298 |
| K% | 13.7% |
| BB% | 6.8% |
| Barrel | 5.8% |
vs RHP
2116 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.271 |
| K% | 17.6% |
| BB% | 5.3% |
| Barrel | 6.0% |