Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / LAA · 2026
None
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team LAA
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
44
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.238 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.324 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.272 |
| Observed weight | 40% |
xwOBA
0.217
0.243
0.272
0.301
0.326
wOBA
0.320
0.345
0.372
0.399
0.423
ISO
0.041
0.071
0.103
0.136
0.166
K%
17.1%
21.1%
25.5%
30.0%
34.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.4%
25
Exit velocity85.8
23
Hard-hit%31.3%
19
xBA0.349
77
xSLG0.519
53
xwOBA0.324
66
+58 vs proj
BB%10.3%
71
+25 vs proj
Bat speed65.7
9
K%21.4%
57
+51 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · LF
53
Arm Strength93.8 · LF
58
Outs Above Avg1.0 · LF
80
Range Runs1.4 · LF
66
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts11.0 · LF
70
Sprint Speed28.7 · LF
86
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.6% · rebadged research
60
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.3% · rebadged research
74
Correct Decisions66.7% · rebadged research
56
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.290 · borderline
43
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.275 · insufficient sample
65
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.312 · validated thin sample
4
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.333 · insufficient sample
46
Resists FastballwOBA 0.340 · validated
46
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.376 · validated
14
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
72
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
44 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.071 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.118 |
| Sample | 145 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 207 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.253 | 0.131 to 0.300 | +/- 0.084 |
| ISO | 0.111 | 0.021 to 0.222 | +/- 0.101 |
| Barrel% | 3.1% | 0.2% to 5.6% | +/- 2.7% |
| Hard-Hit% | 28.5% | 11.9% to 40.5% | +/- 14.3% |
| K% | 33.6% | 13.7% to 41.1% | +/- 13.7% |
| BB% | 8.2% | 2.4% to 11.2% | +/- 4.4% |
| BABIP | 0.296 | 0.140 to 0.359 | +/- 0.109 |
vs LHP
14 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.033 |
| K% | 6.6% |
| BB% | 1.7% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
70 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.036 |
| K% | 6.5% |
| BB% | 2.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |