Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / MIL · 2026
Frelick, Sal
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIL
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
14
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.309 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.283 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.293 |
| Observed weight | 62% |
xwOBA
0.271
0.281
0.293
0.305
0.315
wOBA
0.295
0.310
0.327
0.343
0.358
ISO
0.089
0.100
0.112
0.124
0.135
K%
10.5%
11.5%
12.6%
13.7%
14.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.7%
8
Exit velocity84.7
17
Hard-hit%28.8%
14
xBA0.277
12
xSLG0.368
6
xwOBA0.283
28
-24 vs proj
BB%8.1%
46
Bat speed65.7
10
K%10.9%
98
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-2.6 · RF
6
Arm Strength90.4 · RF
22
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
49
Range Runs0.5 · RF
52
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.1 · RF
68
Bolts17.0 · RF
73
SB Success Rate80.0% · RF
48
Sprint Speed28.7 · RF
84
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.2% · rebadged research
84
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.5% · rebadged research
22
Correct Decisions68.0% · rebadged research
70
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
66
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.284 · borderline
64
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.315 · insufficient sample
2
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278 · validated thin sample
56
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.332 · insufficient sample
40
Resists FastballwOBA 0.300 · validated
97
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351 · validated
65
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
208 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.023 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.020 |
| Sample | 357 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 577 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.307 | 0.285 to 0.348 | +/- 0.031 |
| ISO | 0.109 | 0.095 to 0.195 | +/- 0.050 |
| Barrel% | 1.9% | 0.9% to 4.2% | +/- 1.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 26.0% | 23.2% to 33.8% | +/- 5.3% |
| K% | 13.2% | 11.5% to 20.2% | +/- 4.3% |
| BB% | 8.5% | 6.5% to 11.3% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.296 | 0.280 to 0.346 | +/- 0.033 |
vs LHP
344 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.233 |
| K% | 12.9% |
| BB% | 6.1% |
| Barrel | 1.0% |
vs RHP
1116 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.258 |
| K% | 11.7% |
| BB% | 7.6% |
| Barrel | 1.8% |