Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / MIL · 2026
Frelick, Sal
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIL
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.309 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.277 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.293 |
| Observed weight | 50% |
xwOBA
0.268
0.280
0.293
0.306
0.318
wOBA
0.281
0.300
0.321
0.343
0.362
ISO
0.084
0.097
0.112
0.127
0.140
K%
10.6%
11.8%
13.2%
14.5%
15.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%8.3%
42
Barrel%1.8%
12
Bat speed66.1
13
Exit velocity85.0
16
Hard-hit%27.5%
9
K%11.0%
96
xBA0.269
11
xSLG0.360
7
xwOBA0.277
21
-26 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.9 · RF
5
Arm Strength90.4 · RF
28
Outs Above Avg1.0 · RF
80
Range Runs0.4 · RF
61
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.6 · RF
62
Bolts6.0 · RF
62
Sprint Speed28.6 · RF
86
SB Success Rate75.0% · RF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.8% · rebadged research
85
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.9% · rebadged research
17
Correct Decisions68.0% · rebadged research
67
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.261 · borderline
91
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.320 · insufficient sample
1
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.282 · validated thin sample
31
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.319 · insufficient sample
84
Resists FastballwOBA 0.292 · validated
99
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.366 · validated
28
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
67
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
166 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.030 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.015 |
| Sample | 218 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 577 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.307 | 0.286 to 0.348 | +/- 0.031 |
| ISO | 0.109 | 0.095 to 0.195 | +/- 0.050 |
| Barrel% | 1.9% | 0.9% to 4.2% | +/- 1.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 26.0% | 23.2% to 33.8% | +/- 5.3% |
| K% | 13.2% | 11.5% to 20.2% | +/- 4.3% |
| BB% | 8.5% | 6.5% to 11.3% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.296 | 0.280 to 0.346 | +/- 0.033 |
vs LHP
344 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.233 |
| K% | 12.9% |
| BB% | 6.1% |
| Barrel | 1.0% |
vs RHP
1116 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.258 |
| K% | 11.7% |
| BB% | 7.6% |
| Barrel | 1.8% |