Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / KC · 2026

Collins, Isaac

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.317 xwOBA
Range
0.258 to 0.368
Live Δ
yes
Team KC Archetype Balanced regular Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.317
xwOBA current pace0.303
xwOBA rolling p500.311
Observed weight48%
xwOBA
0.275 0.292 0.311 0.329 0.346
wOBA
0.273 0.292 0.315 0.337 0.357
ISO
0.087 0.104 0.123 0.142 0.159
K%
21.9% 23.3% 24.8% 26.4% 27.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%13.0%
86 +16 vs proj
Barrel%4.5%
42 +18 vs proj
Bat speed70.4
62
Exit velocity88.2
46
Hard-hit%40.5%
52
K%26.0%
30 -16 vs proj
xBA0.321
46
xSLG0.452
31
xwOBA0.303
43
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.6 · LF
10
Arm Strength90.6 · LF
30
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · LF
3
Range Runs-2.8 · LF
14
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.3 · LF
9
SB Success Rate40.0% · LF
2
Sprint Speed27.4 · LF
53
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 77.0% · rebadged research
95
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.2% · rebadged research
49
Correct Decisions70.7% · rebadged research
88
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.322 · borderline
6
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.268 · insufficient sample
82
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.251 · validated thin sample
96
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.313 · insufficient sample
92
Resists FastballwOBA 0.327 · validated
75
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358 · validated
46
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110
92
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Collins, Isaac · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.3212026-05-19: 0.3172026-05-21: 0.3092026-05-23: 0.3012026-05-24: 0.3032026-05-25: 0.3082026-05-26: 0.3072026-05-28: 0.3042026-05-29: 0.3032026-05-30: 0.3032026-05-31: 0.3032026-06-01: 0.303 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

113 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Collins, Isaac · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 19% of plotted batted ballsPull 19%Center field third: 65% of plotted batted ballsCenter 65%Right field third: 17% of plotted batted ballsOppo 17% LF 330 CF 410 RF 330 2026-03-18 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.7 / LA -8.02026-03-18 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 105.4 / LA -29.02026-03-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 57.2 / LA -54.02026-03-20 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 84.6 / LA 35.02026-03-23 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 78.9 / LA 15.02026-03-24 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 77.8 / LA -33.02026-03-24 · field out · FC · popup · EV 55.5 / LA 77.02026-03-27 · field out · FF · popup · EV 78.6 / LA 65.02026-03-27 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 99.6 / LA -24.02026-03-27 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.4 / LA -17.02026-03-28 · force out · CU · ground_ball · EV 68.4 / LA -36.02026-03-30 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 103.9 / LA 38.02026-03-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.6 / LA 49.02026-04-01 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 110.9 / LA 16.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 83.1 / LA 42.02026-04-02 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 110.6 / LA -2.02026-04-02 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.8 / LA 24.02026-04-04 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.5 / LA 4.02026-04-04 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 91.1 / LA -2.02026-04-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 71.6 / LA -8.02026-04-04 · field out · SI · popup · EV 79.9 / LA 67.02026-04-04 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.4 / LA 58.02026-04-05 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 75.3 / LA 20.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.6 / LA 25.02026-04-06 · field out · FF · popup · EV 86.3 / LA 59.02026-04-09 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 75.1 / LA 56.02026-04-09 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 82.9 / LA 25.02026-04-09 · field out · FF · popup · EV 77.5 / LA 62.02026-04-10 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 68.7 / LA 45.02026-04-10 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 90.5 / LA 21.02026-04-12 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.6 / LA 33.02026-04-12 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 102.7 / LA -3.02026-04-12 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 106.0 / LA 4.02026-04-12 · field error · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.1 / LA -8.02026-04-19 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 89.9 / LA 23.02026-04-19 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 73.2 / LA -30.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.6 / LA 38.02026-04-20 · single · FF · popup · EV 54.5 / LA 34.02026-04-20 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 99.6 / LA 6.02026-04-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.4 / LA 5.02026-04-20 · field out · FF · popup · EV 63.9 / LA 39.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 40.0 / LA 21.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · popup · EV 72.6 / LA 58.02026-04-24 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 83.9 / LA 13.02026-04-24 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 102.6 / LA 11.02026-04-25 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 90.7 / LA 15.02026-04-26 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 79.0 / LA 19.02026-04-26 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 91.2 / LA 37.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.9 / LA 37.02026-04-28 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 97.0 / LA 30.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.3 / LA 6.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.4 / LA 43.02026-04-29 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 83.9 / LA -2.02026-04-29 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.6 / LA 60.02026-04-30 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.6 / LA -18.02026-04-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.1 / LA 23.02026-04-30 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 110.4 / LA 8.02026-04-30 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 105.2 / LA -6.02026-05-01 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 72.2 / LA 55.02026-05-01 · field out · CH · popup · EV 82.0 / LA 75.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 100.9 / LA 16.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 55.4 / LA -53.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 95.8 / LA 19.02026-05-02 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 105.1 / LA 7.02026-05-03 · sac fly · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.4 / LA 42.02026-05-03 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 107.8 / LA 17.02026-05-03 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 102.8 / LA 11.02026-05-05 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 100.3 / LA 7.02026-05-05 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 105.9 / LA 10.02026-05-05 · home run · ST · line_drive · EV 104.9 / LA 21.02026-05-06 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 45.0 / LA -65.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 98.4 / LA 21.02026-05-07 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.8 / LA 39.02026-05-07 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.3 / LA -11.02026-05-08 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 85.1 / LA 13.02026-05-08 · field out · CH · popup · EV 66.7 / LA 56.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · popup · EV 84.5 / LA 60.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 105.8 / LA 19.02026-05-10 · force out · FS · ground_ball · EV 83.7 / LA -39.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.2 / LA -20.02026-05-12 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.2 / LA -8.02026-05-12 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 104.5 / LA 20.02026-05-13 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.1 / LA -10.02026-05-13 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.4 / LA -22.02026-05-13 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 77.8 / LA 8.02026-05-14 · field out · SI · popup · EV 65.8 / LA 68.02026-05-14 · field out · FF · popup · EV 90.7 / LA 65.02026-05-14 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.2 / LA -16.02026-05-15 · sac fly · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.7 / LA 30.02026-05-15 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 95.4 / LA -14.02026-05-15 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 77.1 / LA 27.02026-05-16 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 109.4 / LA 15.02026-05-16 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.8 / LA -7.02026-05-16 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 84.6 / LA 19.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 70.5 / LA -24.02026-05-17 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 96.0 / LA 8.02026-05-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 75.9 / LA -15.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 95.0 / LA 43.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 92.3 / LA 29.02026-05-20 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 77.4 / LA 26.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.3 / LA 46.02026-05-22 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 66.2 / LA 10.02026-05-23 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 96.5 / LA 11.02026-05-23 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 78.1 / LA -3.02026-05-24 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 101.9 / LA 14.02026-05-24 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 72.0 / LA 30.02026-05-25 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 82.4 / LA 55.02026-05-25 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 103.6 / LA -16.02026-05-25 · field out · FF · popup · EV 76.2 / LA 74.02026-05-26 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 76.1 / LA -7.02026-05-27 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 92.0 / LA 8.02026-05-27 · field out · FS · popup · EV 68.6 / LA 64.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 97.1 / LA 23.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Collins, Isaac · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 50%50%Chase: 18%18%Whiff: 24%24%Zone contact: 87%87%Contact: 76%76%Hard hit: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.014
wOBA Δ-0.002
Sample200 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances438----
Home Runs10----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3170.258 to 0.368+/- 0.055
ISO0.1260.084 to 0.213+/- 0.064
Barrel%3.0%1.3% to 4.8%+/- 1.7%
Hard-Hit%38.7%29.7% to 45.7%+/- 8.0%
K%22.6%19.5% to 28.0%+/- 4.2%
BB%10.5%7.1% to 13.2%+/- 3.0%
BABIP0.3210.287 to 0.378+/- 0.045
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

175 career PA

xwOBA0.206
K%15.3%
BB%7.8%
Barrel2.0%
vs RHP

331 career PA

xwOBA0.211
K%15.5%
BB%8.7%
Barrel2.1%